Adaptive modelling of long-distance wave propagation and fine-scale flooding during the Tohoku tsunami

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami is simulated using the quadtree-adaptive Saint-Venant solver implemented within the Gerris Flow Solver. The spatial resolution is adapted dynamically from 250 m in flooded areas up to 250 km for the areas at rest. Wave fronts are tracked at a resolution of 1.8 km in deep water. The simulation domain extends over 73° of both latitude and longitude and covers a significant part of the north-west Pacific. The initial wave elevation is obtained from a source model derived using seismic data only. Accurate long-distance wave prediction is demonstrated through comparison with DART buoys timeseries and GLOSS tide gauges records. The model also accurately predicts fine-scale flooding compared to both satellite and survey data. Adaptive mesh refinement leads to orders-of-magnitude gains in computational efficiency compared to non-adaptive methods. The study confirms that consistent source models for tsunami initiation can be obtained from seismic data only. However, while the observed extreme wave elevations are reproduced by the model, they are located further south than in the surveyed data. Comparisons with inshore wave buoys data indicate that this may be due to an incomplete understanding of the local wave generation mechanisms

Estimating Tsunami-Induced Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research Needs

Tsunami damage, fragility, and vulnerability functions are statistical models that provide an estimate of expected damage or losses due to tsunami. They allow for quantification of risk, and so are a vital component of catastrophe models used for human and financial loss estimation, and for land-use and emergency planning. This paper collates and reviews the currently available tsunami fragility functions in order to highlight the current limitations, outline significant advances in this field, make recommendations for model derivation, and propose key areas for further research. Existing functions are first presented, and then key issues are identified in the current literature for each of the model components: building damage data (the response variable of the statistical model), tsunami intensity data (the explanatory variable), and the statistical model that links the two. Finally, recommendations are made regarding areas for future research and current best practices in deriving tsunami fragility functions (see Discussion, Recommendations, and Future Research). The information presented in this paper may be used to assess the quality of current estimations (both based on the quality of the data, and the quality of the models and methods adopted) and to adopt best practice when developing new fragility functions

Science for Disaster Risk Reduction

This thematic report describes JRC's activities in support to disaster management. The JRC develops tools and methodologies to help in all phases of disaster management, from preparedness and risk assessment to recovery and reconstruction through to forecasting and early warning.JRC.A.6-Communicatio

L-Band SAR Disaster Monitoring for Harbor Facilities Using Interferometric Analysis

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has become a major tool for disaster monitoring. Its all-weather capability enables us to monitor the affected area soon after the event happens. Since the first launch of spaceborne SAR, its amplitude images have been widely used for disaster observations. Nowadays, an accurate orbit control and scheduled frequent observations enable us to perform interferometric analysis of SAR (InSAR) and the use of interferometric coherence. Especially for L-band SAR, its long-lasting temporal coherence is an advantage to perform precise interferometric coherence analysis. In addition, recent high resolution SAR images are found to be useful for observing relatively small targets, e.g., individual buildings and facilities. In this chapter, we present basic theory of SAR observation, interferometric coherence analysis for the disaster monitoring, and its examples for the harbor facilities. In the actual case, DInSAR measurement could measure the subsidence of the quay wall with 3 cm error

SMART Cables for Observing the Global Ocean: Science and Implementation

The ocean is key to understanding societal threats including climate change, sea level rise, ocean warming, tsunamis, and earthquakes. Because the ocean is difficult and costly to monitor, we lack fundamental data needed to adequately model, understand, and address these threats. One solution is to integrate sensors into future undersea telecommunications cables. This is the mission of the SMART subsea cables initiative (Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications). SMART sensors would “piggyback” on the power and communications infrastructure of a million kilometers of undersea fiber optic cable and thousands of repeaters, creating the potential for seafloor-based global ocean observing at a modest incremental cost. Initial sensors would measure temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration. The resulting data would address two critical scientific and societal issues: the long-term need for sustained climate-quality data from the under-sampled ocean (e.g., deep ocean temperature, sea level, and circulation), and the near-term need for improvements to global tsunami warning networks. A Joint Task Force (JTF) led by three UN agencies (ITU/WMO/UNESCO-IOC) is working to bring this initiative to fruition. This paper explores the ocean science and early warning improvements available from SMART cable data, and the societal, technological, and financial elements of realizing such a global network. Simulations show that deep ocean temperature and pressure measurements can improve estimates of ocean circulation and heat content, and cable-based pressure and seismic-acceleration sensors can improve tsunami warning times and earthquake parameters. The technology of integrating these sensors into fiber optic cables is discussed, addressing sea and land-based elements plus delivery of real-time open data products to end users. The science and business case for SMART cables is evaluated. SMART cables have been endorsed by major ocean science organizations, and JTF is working with cable suppliers and sponsors, multilateral development banks and end users to incorporate SMART capabilities into future cable projects. By investing now, we can build up a global ocean network of long-lived SMART cable sensors, creating a transformative addition to the Global Ocean Observing System

Geodetic Observations of Weak Determinism in Rupture Evolution of Large Earthquakes.

The moment evolution of large earthquakes is a subject of fundamental interest to both basic and applied seismology. Specifically, an open problem is when in the rupture process a large earthquake exhibits features dissimilar from those of a lesser magnitude event. The answer to this question is of importance for rapid, reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude, a major priority of earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. Much effort has been made to test whether earthquakes are deterministic, meaning that observations in the first few seconds of rupture can be used to predict the final rupture extent. However, results have been inconclusive, especially for large earthquakes greater than M w 7. Traditional seismic methods struggle to rapidly distinguish the size of large-magnitude events, in particular near the source, even after rupture completion, making them insufficient to resolve the question of predictive rupture behavior. Displacements derived from Global Navigation Satellite System data can accurately estimate magnitude in real time, even for the largest earthquakes. We employ a combination of seismic and geodetic (Global Navigation Satellite System) data to investigate early rupture metrics, to determine whether observational data support deterministic rupture behavior. We find that while the earliest metrics (~5 s of data) are not enough to infer final earthquake magnitude, accurate estimates are possible within the first tens of seconds, prior to rupture completion, suggesting a weak determinism. We discuss the implications for earthquake source physics and rupture evolution and address recommendations for earthquake and tsunami early warning

The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: A single or complex source?

The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (Wes