Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand (AID) models are estimated with monthly data to identify the price competitiveness and interdependencies of tourism demand for competing destinations in both long run (static) and short run error correction (dynamic) specifications. The homogeneity and symmetry restricted long run and short run AID models are estimated to calculate elasticities. The income elasticities, and the compensated and uncompensated own-price and cross-price elasticities, provide useful information for public and private tourism agents at the various destinations to maintain and improve price competitiveness. The empirical results show that price competitiveness is important for tourism demand for Japan, Korea and Hong Kong in the long run, and for Hong Kong and Taiwan in the short run. With regard to long run cross-price elasticities, the substitution effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Korea, Japan-Hong Kong, Taiwan-Hong Kong, Japan-Korea, and Taiwan-Korea. In addition to the substitution effect, the complementary effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Hong Kong, China-Japan, China-Taiwan, Japan-Taiwan, and Korea-Hong Kong. Contrary to the findings obtained from the long run AID specification, Japan-Korea and Taiwan-Korea are complements in the short run. Furthermore, the real total tourism expenditure elasticities indicate that China’s share of real total tourism expenditure is inelastic in response to a change in real total tourism expenditure, while Korea’s share of real total tourism expenditure is most sensitive to changes in expenditure in the long run. The greatest impact on the share of real total tourism expenditure in the short run is tourism demand for Taiwan.tourism demand;almost ideal Demand (AID) model;compensated prices;budget shares;complements;error correction;monthly frequency;price competitiveness;substitutes;uncompensated prices

Structural ambiguity of the Chinese version of the hospital anxiety and depression scale in patients with coronary heart disease

Background The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a widely used screening tool designed as a case detector for clinically relevant anxiety and depression. Recent studies of the HADS in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in European countries suggest it comprises three, rather than two, underlying sub-scale dimensions. The factor structure of the Chinese version of the HADS was evaluated in patients with CHD in mainland China. Methods Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted on self-report HADS forms from 154 Chinese CHD patients. Results Little difference was observed in model fit between best performing three-factor and two-factor models. Conclusion The current observations are inconsistent with recent studies highlighting a dominant underlying tri-dimensional structure to the HADS in CHD patients. The Chinese version of the HADS may perform differently to European language versions of the instrument in patients with CHD

Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand (AID) models are estimated with monthly data to identify the price competitiveness and interdependencies of tourism demand for competing destinations in both long run (static) and short run error correction (dynamic) specifications. The homogeneity and symmetry restricted long run and short run AID models are estimated to calculate elasticities. The income elasticities, and the compensated and uncompensated own-price and cross-price elasticities, provide useful information for public and private tourism agents at the various destinations to maintain and improve price competitiveness. The empirical results show that price competitiveness is important for tourism demand for Japan, Korea and Hong Kong in the long run, and for Hong Kong and Taiwan in the short run. With regard to long run cross-price elasticities, the substitution effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Korea, Japan-Hong Kong, Taiwan-Hong Kong, Japan-Korea, and Taiwan-Korea. In addition to the substitution effect, the complementary effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Hong Kong, China-Japan, China-Taiwan, Japan-Taiwan, and Korea-Hong Kong. Contrary to the findings obtained from the long run AID specification, Japan-Korea and Taiwan-Korea are complements in the short run. Furthermore, the real total tourism expenditure elasticities indicate that China’s share of real total tourism expenditure is inelastic in response to a change in real total tourism expenditure, while Korea’s share of real total tourism expenditure is most sensitive to changes in expenditure in the long run. The greatest impact on the share of real total tourism expenditure in the short run is tourism demand for Taiwan.Almost Ideal Demand (AID) model; tourism demand; price competitiveness; compensated prices; uncompensated prices; substitutes; complements; budget shares; error correction; monthly frequency

"Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia"

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand (AID) models are estimated with monthly data to identify the price competitiveness and interdependencies of tourism demand for competing destinations in both long run (static) and short run error correction (dynamic) specifications. The homogeneity and symmetry restricted long run and short run AID models are estimated to calculate elasticities. The income elasticities, and the compensated and uncompensated own-price and cross-price elasticities, provide useful information for public and private tourism agents at the various destinations to maintain and improve price competitiveness. The empirical results show that price competitiveness is important for tourism demand for Japan, Korea and Hong Kong in the long run, and for Hong Kong and Taiwan in the short run. With regard to long run cross-price elasticities, the substitution effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Korea, Japan-Hong Kong, Taiwan-Hong Kong, Japan-Korea, and Taiwan-Korea. In addition to the substitution effect, the complementary effect can be found in the following pairs of destinations: China-Hong Kong, China-Japan, China- Taiwan, Japan-Taiwan, and Korea-Hong Kong. Contrary to the findings obtained from the long run AID specification, Japan-Korea and Taiwan-Korea are complements in the short run. Furthermore, the real total tourism expenditure elasticities indicate that China's share of real total tourism expenditure is inelastic in response to a change in real total tourism expenditure, while Korea's share of real total tourism expenditure is most sensitive to changes in expenditure in the long run. The greatest impact on the share of real total tourism expenditure in the short run is tourism demand for Taiwan.

Two-dimensional gap solitons in elliptic-lattice potentials

We study two-dimensional (2D) matter-wave gap solitons trapped in an elliptically deformed concentric lattice potential, within the framework of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) with self-attraction or self-repulsion. For a fixed eccentricity of the lattice, soliton families are found in both the repulsive and attractive models. In the former case, the analysis reveals two kinds of gap solitons trapped in the first oval trough (the ring-shaped potential minimum closest to the center): elliptic annular solitons (EASs), and double solitons (DSs), which are formed by two tightly localized density peaks located at diametrically opposite points of the trough, with zero phase difference between them. With the decrease of the norm, the density distribution in the EAS along the azimuthal direction changes from nearly-uniform to double-peaked and, eventually, to the DS. In the attractive model, there exist only DSs in the oval trough, while EASs are not found. All such solitons without the angular momentum (l = 0) are fully stable. For l is not equal to 0, vortical solitons - both EASs with a sufficiently large norm (in the repulsive model) and DSs (in models with both signs of the nonlinearity) - are quasi-stable, exhibiting rocking motion in the elliptic trough (we consider the cases of l=1 and l=2). At smaller values of the norm, the vortical annular solitons (in the repulsive model) are unstable. Stable fundamental solitons trapped in the central potential well are investigated too, in both the attractive and repulsive models, by means of the variational approximation and numerical methods.Comment: Phys. Rev. A, in pres

Off-the-record target zones:theory with an application to Hong Kong’s Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band

The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue

Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies—except for Japan—informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen thereby aggravating the crisis. To limit future misalignments, the IMF wants East Asian currencies to float freely. Alternatively, authors have proposed increasing the weight of the yen in East Asian currency baskets. However, dollar pegs are entirely rational from the perspective of each Asian country—both to facilitate hedging by merchants and banks against exchange risk, and to help central banks anchor their domestic price levels. Post-crisis, as the East Asian economies transform themselves from being dollar debtors into dollar creditors, they face “conflicted virtue”: pressure to appreciate their currencies that could lead to a defla-tionary spiral. Rather than undervaluing their currencies to promote exports as is commonly alleged, East Asian governments are trapped into returning to—and then maintaining—soft dollar pegs.Exchange Rates, Business Cycles, East Asian Dollar Standard, Original Sin, Conflicted Virtue