Fuzzy multicriteria analysis and its applications for decision making under uncertainty

Multicriteria decision making refers to selecting or ranking alternatives from available alternatives with respect to multiple, usually conflicting criteria involving either a single decision maker or multiple decision makers. It often takes place in an environment where the information available is uncertain, subjective and imprecise. To adequately solve this decision problem, the application of fuzzy sets theory for adequately modelling the uncertainty and imprecision in multicriteria decision making has proven to be effective. Much research has been done on the development of various fuzzy multicriteria analysis approaches for effectively solving the multicriteria decision making problem, and numerous applications have been reported in the literature. In general, existing approaches can be categorized into (a) multicriteria decision making with a single decision maker and (b) multicriteria group decision making. Existing approaches, however, are not totally satisfactory due to various shortcomings that they suffer from including (a) the inability to adequately model the uncertainty and imprecision of human decision making, (b) the failure to effectively handle the requirements of decision maker(s), (c) the tedious mathematical computation required, and (d) cognitively very demanding on the decision maker(s). This research has developed four novel approaches for effectively solving the multicriteria decision making problem under uncertainty. To effectively reduce the cognitive demand on the decision maker, a pairwise comparison based approach is developed in Chapter 4 for solving the multicriteria problem under uncertainty. To adequately meet the interest of various stakeholders in the multicriteria decision making process, a decision support system (DSS) based approach is introduced in Chapter 5. In Chapter 6, a consensus oriented approach is presented in multicriteria group decision making on which a DSS is proposed for facilitating consensus building in solving the multicriteria group decision making problem. In Chapter 7, a risk-oriented approach is developed for adequately modelling the inherent risk in multicriteria group decision making with the use of the concept of ideal solutions so that the complex and unreliable process of comparing fuzzy utilities usually required in fuzzy multicriteria analysis is avoided. Empirical studies of four real fuzzy multicriteria decision making problems are presented for illustrating the applicability of the approaches developed in solving the multicriteria decision making problem. A hospital location selection problem is discussed in Chapter 8. An international distribution centre location problem is illustrated in Chapter 9. A supplier selection problem is presented in Chapter 10. A hotel location problem is discussed in Chapter 11. These studies have shown the distinct advantages of the approaches developed respectively in this research from different perspectives in solving the multicriteria decision making problem

Face Validation Method Alternatives for Shiphandling Fuzzy Logic Difficulty Model

The development of shiphandling difficulty model for ferry is based on the empirical experience through the Master of Ro-Ro ferries. The SHDMF is consisted from two parts which are the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Inference System. Both parts had been validated through internal validation in the form of consistency test for the first part and robustness test for the second part. Further, the external/face validation is required to compare the proposed model with similar model through benchmarking approach. The benchmarking approaches are elaborated for the reliability, validity, possibility, efficiency and effectiveness. Through fuzzy group decision making method, the questionnaire survey is performed to verify the most appropriate approach based on the shiphandling simulator as the most preferred benchmarking tool by experts. Next, the proposed scenario is overviewed and discussed especially related to the advantages and drawbacks of shiphandling simulator. Keywords: shiphandling difficulty, fuzzy group decision making, internal validation Model pengukuran kesulitan pengendalian feri didasarkan pada pengalaman empiris melalui pernyataan nahkoda kapal feri Ro-Ro. SHDMF terdiri atas dua bagian, yaitu Analytic Hierarchy Process dan Fuzzy Inference System. Kedua bagian ini telah divalidasi melalui validasi internal dalam bentuk uji konsistensi untuk bagian pertama dan uji kehandalan untuk bagian kedua. Selanjutnya validasi atau wajah eksternal diperlukan untuk membandingkan model yang diusulkan dengan model yang diperoleh dari benchmarking. Pendekatan benchmarking dijabarkan untuk kehandalan, validitas, kemungkinan, efisiensi, dan efektivitas. Melalui metode fuzzy kelompok pembuatan keputusan, survei kuesioner dilakukan untuk memverifikasi pendekatan yang paling tepat dengan simulator pengendalian kapal sebagai alat yang paling disukai oleh para ahli untuk benchmarking. Selanjutnya skenario yang ditinjau-ulang dan dibahas terutama terkait dengan keuntungan dan kelemahan simulator pengendalian kapal. Kata

Assessments in Policy-Making: Case Studies from the Arctic Council

Julkaistu versi

Models of Consensus for Multiple Agent Systems

Models of consensus are used to manage multiple agent systems in order to choose between different recommendations provided by the system. It is assumed that there is a central agent that solicits recommendations or plans from other agents. That agent the n determines the consensus of the other agents, and chooses the resultant consensus recommendation or plan. Voting schemes such as this have been used in a variety of domains, including air traffic control. This paper uses an analytic model to study the use of consensus in multiple agent systems. The binomial model is used to study the probability that the consensus judgment is correct or incorrect. That basic model is extended to account for both different levels of agent competence and unequal prior odds. The analysis of that model is critical in the investigation of multiple agent systems, since the model leads us to conclude that in some cases consensus judgment is not appropriate. In addition, the results allow us to determine how many agents should be used to develop consensus decisions, which agents should be used to develop consensus decisions and under which conditions the consensus model should be used.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994

Using megaproject performance outcomes to enhance decision-making behaviours in civil engineering graduates

A comprehensive review of megaproject performance propositioned the issues leading to project failure as behavioral. Project failure linked cost overruns and schedule delays to acts of delusion and deception, citing the ability to learn lessons, and the misalignment of incentives as influencing factors. A mixed-methods study was designed to gain insight into the decision-making behaviors of undergraduate civil engineers, and the role that education could play in enhancing decision-making. A co-curricular intervention led to qualitative exploration of decision-making in civil engineering undergraduates. Motivation featured heavily, particularly a conflict between interest and enjoyment, and the reward structures of traditional education and industry. Results led to a quantitative measure of intrinsic motivation and critical thinking ability. Findings from the educational environment have implications for industry and led to recommendations regarding the importance of autonomy and relatedness, to a megaproject environment

Emerging prenatal genetic tests : developing a health technology assessment (HTA) framework for informed decision-making

Delphi Process In preparation for the first Delphi exercise, a list of questions was produced from the academic literature, webbased sources and interviews with experts. These questions were structured into broad dimensions and a draft questionnaire piloted. A final list of 73 questions formed the basis of the first Delphi survey. Participants were asked to grade the perceived importance of each question for inclusion in HTA reports on new prenatal genetic tests (4 = Essential; 3 = Desirable, but not essential; 2 = Useful but should not be required; 1 = Of little/ no importance; 0 = I have no basis for judgement). Secondly, they were asked to indicate whether a question should be addressed during test development or whether the question could be addressed later once the technology is ready for implementation. Finally, Panel members were encouraged to identify any other questions which appeared to be missing from the initial list. For copy of questionnaire, see Annex 1: Delphi Round 1 Questionnaire. Respondents were also asked to provide personal details to give some indication of their HTA experience and specialist expertise. Analysis of responses demonstrated that SAFE Delphi panel members represent a highly experienced, multidisciplinary international group of experts with the knowledge required to define which key questions should be addressed in HTA reports on new prenatal genetic tests. Delphi Responses Responses were received from 77/90 (86%) of Panel members. These were analysed with a cut-off of 75% (±3%) applied as an indicator of Panel consensus for all questions. Thus, any question which three out of four respondents rated as essential or desirable was retained, whilst those not achieving this level of agreement were provisionally excluded. In addition, mean scores were also calculated (excluding 0 = I have no basis for judgement) for each question. A mean score >3.25 ± 0.05 was taken as an indication that the Panel had identified a particular question as being of the highest priority to address in HTA

Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling

The main purpose of public participation in integrated water resources modelling is to improve decision-making by ensuring that decisions are soundly based on shared knowledge, experience and scientific evidence. The present paper describes stakeholder involvement in the modelling process. The point of departure is the guidelines for quality assurance for `scientific` water resources modelling developed under the EU research project HarmoniQuA, which has developed a computer based Modelling Support Tool (MoST) to provide a user-friendly guidance and a quality assurance framework that aim for enhancing the credibility of river basin modelling. MoST prescribes interaction, which is a form of participation above consultation but below engagement of stakeholders and the public in the early phases of the modelling cycle and under review tasks throughout the process. MoST is a flexible tool which supports different types of users and facilitates interaction between modeller, manager and stakeholders. The perspective of using MoST for engagement of stakeholders e.g. higher level participation throughout the modelling process as part of integrated water resource management is evaluate