ELM regime classification by conformal prediction on an information manifold

Characterization and control of plasma instabilities known as edge-localized modes (ELMs) is crucial for the operation of fusion reactors. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated good potential in making useful inferences from stochastic fusion data sets. However, traditional classification methods do not offer an inherent estimate of the goodness of their prediction. In this paper, a distance-based conformal predictor classifier integrated with a geometric-probabilistic framework is presented. The first benefit of the approach lies in its comprehensive treatment of highly stochastic fusion data sets, by modeling the measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. This enables calculation of a natural distance measure between probability distributions: the Rao geodesic distance. Second, the predictions are accompanied by estimates of their accuracy and reliability. The method is applied to the classification of regimes characterized by different types of ELMs based on the measurements of global parameters and their error bars. This yields promising success rates and outperforms state-of-the-art automatic techniques for recognizing ELM signatures. The estimates of goodness of the predictions increase the confidence of classification by ELM experts, while allowing more reliable decisions regarding plasma control and at the same time increasing the robustness of the control system

The computation of flow past an oblique wing using the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations

Essential aspects are presented for computing flow past an oblique wing with the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. A new method is developed for generating a grid system around a realistic wing. This method utilizes a series of conformal transformations. The thin-shear-layer approximation and an algebraic eddy-viscosity turbulence model are used to simplify the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. An implicit, factored numerical scheme and the concept of pencil data structure are utilized. For the first time, some flow fields caused by the oblique wing in a supersonic free stream are discussed, emphasizing the separated vortex flows associated with such a wing

Fast and accurate computation of the logarithmic capacity of compact sets

We present a numerical method for computing the logarithmic capacity of compact subsets of $\mathbb{C}$, which are bounded by Jordan curves and have finitely connected complement. The subsets may have several components and need not have any special symmetry. The method relies on the conformal map onto lemniscatic domains and, computationally, on the solution of a boundary integral equation with the Neumann kernel. Our numerical examples indicate that the method is fast and accurate. We apply it to give an estimate of the logarithmic capacity of the Cantor middle third set and generalizations of it

Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0706.3188, arXiv:1604.04173, arXiv:1709.06233, arXiv:1203.5422 by other author