Bearing prognostics with non-trendable behavior based on shock pulse method and frequency analysis

Bearings are one of the most important parts of rotating machineries. Their fault diagnosis and prognosis are critical for the maintenance decision making. In reality, few bearings are working under constant operating conditions. So, robust features which are not sensitive to the operating condition are needed for bearing prognostics. Sometimes, even if they are working under stationary conditions, common-used degradation features are non-trendable and cannot be used to predict the remaining useful lives. In order to address these two issues, shock pulse method and frequency analysis are combined to detect the incipient fault and predict the remaining useful lives. Maximum normalized shock value which is extracted using shock pulse method can reflect the degradation process more robust under non-stationary conditions. And frequency analysis can identify the change points of degradation states when degradation features are non-trendable. Finally, a case study is conducted where the proposed methods are demonstrated by analyzing the 2012 PHM challenge data sets

Urban Tunneling Risk Management: Ground Settlement Assessment through Proportional Hazards Modeling

Nowadays, tunnel excavation plays a major role in the development of countries. Due to the complex and challenging ground conditions, a comprehensive study and analysis must be done before, during, and after the excavation of tunnels. Hence, the importance of study and evaluation of ground settlement is dramatically increased since many tunnel projects are performed in urban areas, where there are plenty of constructions, buildings, and facilities. For this reason, the control and prediction of ground settlement is one of the complicated topics in the field of risk engineering. Therefore, in this paper, the proportional hazard model (PHM) is used to analyze and study the ground settlement induced by Tabriz Metro Line 2 (TML2) tunneling. The PHM method is a semi-parametric regression method that can enter environmental conditions or factors affecting settlement probability. These influential factors are used as risk factors in the analysis. After establishing a database for a case study and using a proportional hazard model for surface settlement analysis, and then by evaluating the effect of environmental conditions on the ground surface settlement, it has been found that the risk factors of grouting pressure behind the segment, the ratio of tunnel depth to groundwater level, and drained cohesion strength at a significant level of 5% have a direct effect on the probability of settlement. The results also showed that the effect of grout injection pressure on ground subsidence is more than other parameters, and with increasing injection pressure, the probability of exceeding safe subsidence values decreases. In addition, it has been found that increasing the risk factor for the ratio of tunnel depth to groundwater level reduces the probability of exceeding the safe ground settlement. Finally, increasing the number of risk factors for drained cohesion strength increases the probability of exceeding safe settlement

A condition-based opportunistic maintenance policy integrated with energy efficiency for two-component parallel systems

Purpose: In order to improve the energy utilization and achieve sustainable development, this paper integrates energy efficiency into condition-based maintenance(CBM) decision-making for two-component parallel systems. The objective is to obtain the optimal maintenance policy by minimizing total cost. Design/methodology/approach: Based on energy efficiency, the paper considers the economic dependence between the two components to take opportunistic maintenance. Specifically, the objective function consists of traditional maintenance cost and energy cost incurred by energy consumption of components. In order to assess the performance of the proposed new maintenance policy, the paper uses Monte-Carlo method to evaluate the total cost and find the optimal maintenance policy. Findings: Simulation results indicate that the new maintenance policy is superior to the classical condition-based opportunistic maintenance policy in terms of total economic costs. Originality/value: For two-component parallel systems, previous researches usually simply establish a condition-based opportunistic maintenance model based on real deterioration data, but ignore energy consumption, energy efficiency (EE) and their contributions of sustainable development. This paper creatively takes energy efficiency into condition-based maintenance(CBM) decision-making process, and proposes a new condition-based opportunistic maintenance policy by using energy efficiency indicator(EEI).Peer Reviewe

Integrated maintenance and mission planning using remaining useful life information

The modern world requires high reliability and availability with minimum ownership cost for complex industrial systems (high-value assets). Maintenance and mission planning are two major interrelated tasks affecting availability and ownership cost. Both tasks play critical roles in cost savings and effective utilization of the assets, and cannot be performed without taking each other into consideration. Maintenance schedule may make an asset unavailable or too risky to use for a mission. Mission type and duration affect the health of the system, which affects the maintenance schedule. This article presents a mathematical formulation for integrated maintenance and mission planning for a fleet of high-value assets, using their current and forecast health information. An illustrative example for a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles is demonstrated and evolutionary-based solutions are presented

Integrated optimization of maintenance interventions and spare part selection for a partially observable multi-component system

Advanced technical systems are typically composed of multiple critical components whose failure cause a system failure. Often, it is not technically or economically possible to install sensors dedicated to each component, which means that the exact condition of each component cannot be monitored, but a system level failure or defect can be observed. The service provider then needs to implement a condition based maintenance policy that is based on partial information on the systems condition. Furthermore, when the service provider decides to service the system, (s)he also needs to decide which spare part(s) to bring along in order to avoid emergency shipments and part returns. We model this problem as an infinite horizon partially observable Markov decision process. In a set of numerical experiments, we first compare the optimal policy with preventive and corrective maintenance policies: The optimal policy leads on average to a 28% and 15% cost decrease, respectively. Second, we investigate the value of having full information, i.e., sensors dedicated to each component: This leads on average to a 13% cost decrease compared to the case with partial information. Interestingly, having full information is more valuable for cheaper, less reliable components than for more expensive, more reliable components

Two families of indexable partially observable restless bandits and Whittle index computation

We consider the restless bandits with general state space under partial observability with two observational models: first, the state of each bandit is not observable at all, and second, the state of each bandit is observable only if it is chosen. We assume both models satisfy the restart property under which we prove indexability of the models and propose the Whittle index policy as the solution. For the first model, we derive a closed-form expression for the Whittle index. For the second model, we propose an efficient algorithm to compute the Whittle index by exploiting the qualitative properties of the optimal policy. We present detailed numerical experiments for multiple instances of machine maintenance problem. The result indicates that the Whittle index policy outperforms myopic policy and can be close to optimal in different setups

Condition-based maintenance for systems with aging and cumulative damage based on proportional hazards model

This paper develops a condition-based maintenance (CBM) policy for systems subject to aging and cumulative damage. The cumulative damage is modeled by a continuous degradation process. Different from previous studies which assume that the system fails when the degradation level exceeds a specific threshold, this paper argues that the degradation itself does not directly lead to system failure, but increases the failure risk of the system. Proportional hazards model (PHM) is employed to characterize the joint effect of aging and cumulative damage. CBM models are developed for two cases: one assumes that the distribution parameters of the degradation process are known in advance, while the other assumes that the parameters are unknown and need to be estimated during system operation. In the first case, an optimal maintenance policy is obtained by minimizing the long-run cost rate. For the case with unknown parameters, periodic inspection is adopted to monitor the degradation level of the system and update the distribution parameters. A case study of Asphalt Plug Joint in UK bridge system is employed to illustrate the maintenance policy.The work described in this paper was partially supported by a theme-based project grant (T32-101/15-R) of University Grants Council, and a Key Project (71532008) supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China