Coastal vulnerability assessment: a case study in Kien Giang, western part of the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam

Climate change, particularly sea-level rise, threatens low-lying coastal systems, such as small islands on coral atolls, and deltas where millions of people are living. The Mekong River Delta is considered especially at risk. Although most of the delta is only a few metres above sea level, there have been few assessments of vulnerability at local scale. The aim of this thesis is to provide quantitative and qualitative information to guide the process of adaptation and provide visualisations that will enhance local authority’s decision making to adapt to climate change, particularly sea-level rise. It focuses on the seven coastal districts within Kien Giang province in the western, micro-tidal section of the delta. A framework is adopted that integrates biophysical effects and socioeconomic stressors for the case study area and consists of three main components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of multi-criteria decision making was integrated directly into a geographic information system (GIS) to derive a composite vulnerability index that indicated areas or hotspots most likely to be vulnerable to sea-level rise. The hierarchical structure comprised three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (level 1); and eight sub-components (level 2): seawater incursion, flood risk, shoreline change, population characteristics, landuse, as well as socioeconomic, infrastructure, and technological capability. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool was used to calculate rates of shoreline change along the Kien Giang coast over time in order to derive the shoreline change sub-component that contributed to the exposure component. Beyond this, a further 22 variables (level 3) and 24 sub-variables (level 4) related to vulnerability were also mapped. Based on the weights of variables derived from AHP pair-wise comparisons, a final map was generated to visualise areas reported into five categories of relative vulnerability; very low, low, moderate, high to very high vulnerability. Several regional patterns emerged. Relatively high exposure to seawater incursion, flood risk, and moderate loss of mangroves characterised the coastal fringe of each district. Those areas found to be most sensitive tended to have moderate population density, generally with a large rural population and high proportions of ethnic households with limited availability of agricultural land. Many aspects of adaptive capacity could only be represented at district scale, with the least adaptable areas consisting of large proportions of poor households, low income, and moderate densities of transport, irrigation, and drainage systems. Finally, most coastal districts were determined to be of moderate to relatively high vulnerability, with scattered hotspots along the Kien Giang coast, which coincided with settlement areas. The results obtained, enable identification and prioritisation of the areas, or hotspots most likely to be vulnerable, for which site-specific assessments might further assist the local authorities and communities in better coastal management and conservation. However, the limitations of data accessible at an entire district can influence the outcome. Social vulnerability remains a challenge because it is changing over time and space

Modelling of River Flow and Sediment Load Based on the Hydrological Behavior Model in Yahagi River Basin, Japan

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

The effect of spatial settlement patterns on urban climatology

Increasing urbanization, in addition to driving climate change and pollution, can have a profound effect on the ecosystem properties within and even far from urban areas. As such, it is important to understand the energy balance of cities including the extent of its modification by urban form. This PhD thesis examines the effect of spatial settlement pattern on urban climatology. The initial study focussed on UK overpasses of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument, covering the period between 2000 and 2017, were sampled to examine the seasonal (winter and summer) night-time clear-sky upwelling long-wave energy for 35 UK cities. Total (area-summed) emitted energy was calculated per city. Well-defined (R2≥0.79) and robust ‘allometric’ scaling against city population was found for all samples. Total night-time emitted energy is found to scale sub-linearly with population on both summer and winter nights, with slope of 0.85±0.03. The scaling of night-time emitted energy with urban areas is close to linear (1.0±0.05). This indicates that UK Cities, although often appearing superficially very different, are similar in their gross thermal properties, i.e., in terms of the components of urban form, which dictate thermal properties. A case study of Nigeria’s cities on allometric scaling of emitted energy with population is also investigated, and it turned out to be very different from the UK study with slope of 0.41±0.05. Nigerian cities show much more sub-linear allometric scaling of total emitted energy with population, indicating slightly economy of scale in terms of nocturnal heat production. Local climate zones are further used to interpret results from the study. The study went further to investigate how the sum measure of the spatial distribution of emitted energy inside the city’s boundary is affected by the urban morphology, using the previous UK study. A fitted distribution of both extremes’ percentiles of emitted energy and land use maps within city were used as basis for comparison across cities in order to delineate the hottest and coldest spots in the distribution of long-wave energy for a sample night

유전 알고리즘을 이용한 다중스케일/다목적 공간계획 최적화모델 구축

학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 환경대학원 협동과정 조경학전공, 2019. 2. 이동근.공간계획 과정에서 다양한 이해관계자와 결부된 목표와 제약 요건을 만족시키는 것은 복잡한 비선형적 문제로서 해결하기 어려운 것으로 알려져 왔다. 그러나 최근 이러한 문제에 유전 알고리즘 (genetic algorithms), 담금질 기법 (simulated annealing), 개미 군집 최적화 (ant colony optimization) 등의 다목적 최적화 알고리즘이 응용되고 있으며, 관련 연구 역시 급증하고 있다. 이 중 유전 알고리즘은 공간 최적화 부문에 가장 빈도 높게 적용된 최적화 알고리즘으로 exploration과 exploitation의 균형으로 합리적인 시간 내에 충분히 좋은 계획안을 제시할 수 있다. 그러나 공간 최적화 연구가 보여준 좋은 성과에도 불구하고 대부분의 연구가 특정 용도 혹은 시설의 배치에 집중되어 있으며, 기후변화 적응, 재해 관리, 그린인프라 계획과 같은 최근의 환경 이슈를 다룬 사례는 매우 미흡하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 유전 알고리즘과 비지배 정렬 유전 알고리즘 (non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II)에 기초하여 기후변화 적응, 재해 관리, 도시의 녹지 계획 등과 같은 환경 이슈를 공간계획에 반영할 수 있는 일련의 공간 최적화 모델을 제시하였다. 개별 환경 이슈에 따라 공간 해상도, 목적, 제약요건이 다르게 구성하였으며, 공간적 범위가 좁아지고 공간해상도는 높아지는 순서대로 나열하였다. 논문의 첫번째 장에서는 행정구역 도 규모 (province scale, 해상도 1㎢)에서 미래의 기후변화에 적응하기 위한 토지이용 시나리오를 모의할 수 있는 공간 최적화 모델을 제안하였다. 기후변화가 먼 미래가 아닌, 현재 이미 진행되고 있으며 관련한 다수의 피해가 관찰되고 있기 때문에 공간적 관점에서 기후변화에 대한 적응의 필요성이 지적되어 왔다. 그러나 구체적으로 기후에 대한 회복 탄력성을 향상시키기 위하여 토지이용의 공간적 구성을 어떻게 변화시켜야 할지에 대한 방법론 제시는 미흡하다. 지역계획에서 기후변화 영향을 고려한 토지이용 배분은 매우 유용한, 기본적인 중장기 적응 전략에 해당한다. 본 연구에서는 다목적 유전 알고리즘 (MOGA, multi-objective genetic algorithm)에 기초하여 9,982㎢에 350만의 인구가 거주하는 한국의 충청남도 및 대전광역시 일대를 대상으로 기후변화 적응을 위한 토지이용 시나리오를 제시하였다. 지역적인 기후변화 영향과 경제적 여건을 고려하여 재해 피해 및 전환량의 최소화, 벼 생산량, 종 풍부도 보전, 경제적 가치의 최대화 등 다섯 가지의 목적을 선택하였다. 각 목적 별 가중치를 변화시키며 여섯 가지 가중치 조합에 대한 17개의 파레토 최적 토지이용 시나리오를 생성하였다. 대부분의 시나리오는 정도의 차이는 있으나 현재의 토지이용에 비해 기후변화 적응 부분에서 더 좋은 퍼포먼스를 보였으므로, 기후변화에 대한 회복탄력성이 개선할 수 있을 것으로 판단하였다. 또한 공간 최적화 모델의 유연한 구조를 고려하였을 때, 지역의 실무자 역시 가중치와 같은 모델의 파라미터, 기후변화 영향 평가와 같은 입력자료를 변경함으로써 효율적으로 새로운 시나리오를 생성 및 선택하는 것이 가능할 것으로 예상하였다. 논문의 두 번째 장에서는 행정구역 군 규모 (local scale, 해상도 100m)에서 기후변화에 따른 재해 피해를 관리하기 위한 토지이용 시나리오를 모의할 수 있는 공간 최적화 모델을 제안하였다. 산악지형에서 폭우로 인한 산사태는 인명과 재산에 심각한 피해를 초래할 수 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 더욱이 기후변화에 따른 강우의 변동성 증가로 이러한 산사태 빈도 및 강도 역시 증대될 것으로 예상된다. 일반적으로 산사태 리스크가 높은 지역을 피해 개발지역을 배치하는 것이 피해를 저감 혹은 회피할 수 있는 가장 효과적인 전략으로 알려져 있으나, 실제공간에서의 계획은 매우 복잡한 비선형의 문제로서 이것을 실현하는 데 어려움이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 비지배 정렬 유전 알고리즘 II에 기초하여 산사태 리스크 및 전환량, 파편화의 최소화 등의 다양한 목적을 만족시키는 종합적인 토지이용 배분 계획을 제안하였다. 대상지는 2018년 동계올림픽 개최지인 한국의 평창군으로서 2006년에 산사태로 인한 대규모의 피해를 경험하였으나, 올림픽 특수 등의 개발압력으로 인한 난개발이 우려되는 지역이다. 최종적으로 한번의 모의를 통해 현재의 토지이용 보다 적어도 한가지 이상의 목적에서 좋은 퍼포먼스를 보이는 100개의 파레토 최적 계획안을 생성하였다. 또한 5개의 대표적인 계획안을 선정하여 산사태리스크 최소화와 전환량 최소화 간에 발생하는 상쇄 효과를 설명하였다. 본 연구결과는 기후변화와 관련된 공간 적응 전략의 수립, 보다 향상된 개발계획을 위한 의사결정을 효과적으로 지원할 수 있을 것으로 예상하였다. 논문의 세 번째 장에서는 블록 규모(neighborhood scale, 2m)에서 도시 내 녹지계획안을 모의할 수 있는 공간 최적화 모델을 제안하였다. 녹지 공간은 도시민의 삶의 질에 결정적인 영향을 미치기 때문에 다양한 도시 재생 및 개발계획에는 녹지와 직 간접적으로 관련된 전략이 포함된다. 녹지 공간은 도시지역 내에서 열섬 현상 완화, 유출량 저감, 생태 네트워크 증진 등 다양한 긍정적 효과가 있음이 알려져 있으나, 공간 계획의 관점에서 이러한 다양한 효과를 종합적, 정량적으로 고려된 사례는 매우 미흡하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 비지배 정렬 유전 알고리즘 II에 기초하여 녹지의 생태적 연결성 증진, 열섬 효과 완화와 같은 다양한 효과와 설치에 따르는 비용을 종합적으로 고려하여 적절한 녹지의 유형과 위치를 결정한 녹지계획안을 제시하였다. 블록 규모의 가상의 대상지에 본 최적화 모델을 적용함으로써 30개의 파레토 최적 녹지계획안을 생성하였으며, 각 목적 간 퍼포먼스를 비교하여 녹지의 열섬 완화 효과와 생태적 연결성 증진 효과 간의 상승 관계 (synergistic relationship), 이러한 긍정적 효과와 비용 절감 간의 상쇄 효과 (trade-off relationship)를 분석하였다. 또한 다양한 계획안 중 대표적인 특성을 지니는 계획안, 다수의 계획안에서 공통적으로 녹지 설치를 위해 선택된 주요 후보지역 역시 규명하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 모델은 계획안의 수정에서부터 정량적 평가, 계획안 선택에 이르는 일련의 긍정적인 피드백 과정을 수없이 반복함으로써 기존의 녹지계획 과정을 개선하는 데 기여할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 모델의 결과 역시 다자간 협력적 디자인 (co-design)을 위한 초안으로서 활용될 수 있을 것으로 예상하였다.The meeting of heterogeneous goals while staying within the constraints of spatial planning is a nonlinear problem that cannot be solved by linear methodologies. Instead, this problem can be solved using multi-objective optimization algorithms such as genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA), ant colony optimization (ACO), etc., and research related to this field has been increasing rapidly. GA, in particular, are the most frequently applied spatial optimization algorithms and are known to search for a good solution within a reasonable time period by maintaining a balance between exploration and exploitation. However, despite its good performance and applicability, it has not adequately addressed recent urgent issues such as climate change adaptation, disaster management, and green infrastructure planning. It is criticized for concentrating on only the allocation of specific land use such as urban and protected areas, or on the site selection of a specific facility. Therefore, in this study, a series of spatial optimizations are proposed to address recent urgent issues such as climate change, disaster management, and urban greening by supplementing quantitative assessment methodologies to the spatial planning process based on GA and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA II). This optimization model needs to be understood as a tool for providing a draft plan that quantitatively meets the essential requirements so that the stakeholders can collaborate smoothly in the planning process. Three types of spatial planning optimization models are classified according to urgent issues. Spatial resolution, planning objectives, and constraints were also configured differently according to relevant issues. Each spatial planning optimization model was arranged in the order of increasing spatial resolution. In the first chapter, the optimization model was proposed to simulate land use scenarios to adapt to climate change on a provincial scale. As climate change is an ongoing phenomenon, many recent studies have focused on adaptation to climate change from a spatial perspective. However, little is known about how changing the spatial composition of land use could improve resilience to climate change. Consideration of climate change impacts when spatially allocating land use could be a useful and fundamental long-term adaptation strategy, particularly for regional planning. Here climate adaptation scenarios were identified on the basis of existing extents of three land use classes using Multi-objective Genetic Algorithms (MOGA) for a 9,982 km2 region with 3.5 million inhabitants in South Korea. Five objectives were selected for adaptation based on predicted climate change impacts and regional economic conditions: minimization of disaster damageand existing land use conversionmaximization of rice yieldprotection of high-species-richness areasand economic value. The 17 Pareto land use scenarios were generated by six weighted combinations of the adaptation objectives. Most scenarios, although varying in magnitude, showed better performance than the current spatial land use composition for all adaptation objectives, suggesting that some alteration of current land use patterns could increase overall climate resilience. Given the flexible structure of the optimization model, it is expected that regional stakeholders would efficiently generate other scenarios by adjusting the model parameters (weighting combinations) or replacing the input data (impact maps) and selecting a scenario depending on their preference or a number of problem-related factors. In the second chapter, the optimization model was proposed to simulate land use scenarios for managing disaster damage due to climate change on local scale. Extreme landslides triggered by rainfall in hilly regions frequently lead to serious damage, including casualties and property loss. The frequency of landslides may increase under climate change, because of the increased variability of precipitation. Developing urban areas outside landslide risk zones is the most effective method of reducing or preventing damageplanning in real life is, however, a complex and nonlinear problem. For such multi-objective problems, GA may be the most appropriate optimization tool. Therefore, comprehensive land use allocation plans were suggested using the NSGA II to overcome multi-objective problems, including the minimization of landslide risk, minimization of change, and maximization of compactness. The study area is Pyeongchang-gun, the host city of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea, where high development pressure has resulted in an urban sprawl into the hazard zone that experienced a large-scale landslide in 2006. We obtained 100 Pareto plans that are better than the actual land use data for at least one objective, with five plans that explain the trade-offs between meeting the first and the second objectives mentioned above. The results can be used by decision makers for better urban planning and for climate change-related spatial adaptation. In the third chapter, the optimization model was proposed to simulate urban greening plans on a neighborhood scale. Green space is fundamental to the good quality of life of residents, and therefore urban planning or improvement projects often include strategies directly or indirectly related to greening. Although green spaces generate positive effects such as cooling and reduction of rainwater runoff, and are an ecological corridor, few studies have examined the comprehensive multiple effects of greening in the urban planning context. To fill this gap in this fields literature, this study seeks to identify a planning model that determines the location and type of green cover based on its multiple effects (e.g., cooling and enhancement of ecological connectivity) and the implementation cost using NSGA II. The 30 Pareto-optimal plans were obtained by applying our model to a hypothetical landscape on a neighborhood scale. The results showed a synergistic relationship between cooling and enhancement of connectivity, as well as a trade-off relationship between greenery effects and implementation cost. It also defined critical lots for urban greening that are commonly selected in various plans. This model is expected to contribute to the improvement of existing planning processes by repeating the positive feedback loop: from plan modification to quantitative evaluation and selection of better plans. These optimal plans can also be considered as options for co-design by related stakeholders.1. INTRODUCTION 2. CHAPTER 1: Modelling Spatial Climate Change Land use Adaptation with Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithms to Improve Resilience for Rice Yield and Species Richness and to Mitigate Disaster Risk 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Study area 2.3. Methods 2.4. Results 2.5. Discussion 2.6. References 2.7. Supplemental material 3. CHAPTER 2: Multi-Objective Land-Use Allocation Considering Landslide Risk under Climate Change: Case Study in Pyeongchang-gun, Korea 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Material and Methods 3.3. Results 3.4. Discussion 3.5. Conclusion 3.6. References 4. CHAPTER 3: Multi-Objective Planning Model for Urban Greening based on Optimization Algorithms 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Methods 3.3. Results 3.4. Discussion 3.5. Conclusion 3.6. References 3.7. Appendix 5. CONCLUSION REFERENCESDocto

An Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of Urban Sprawl in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, Eastern Cape Province

Large industrial and residential developments near towns and along highways associated with public policies have transformed the pattern of development over the recent years, creating a new urbanisation phenomenon; urban sprawl. Indiscriminate population densities, discontinuous and fragmented settlements, largely define urban sprawl. The progression of urban sprawl can be described by transformation in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Stemming an understanding from the processes, causes and patterns of urban sprawl, the consequences of sprawl on land and vegetation can be analysed. Environmental impacts to both the rural and urban population emanate from such instances, creating an excessive liability to the government. With attention to this and recognising the lack of discussion on the matter, the research deliberates some of the impacts observed in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The study makes use of Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing with the assistance of landscape metrics. The influence of urban sprawl in this municipality has revealed impacts on vegetation, green areas and land in general. The results disclose that urban sprawl is a multidimensional phenomenon that is better explained using various methods (indices). Buffalo City Metropolitan municipality is located in Eastern Cape amidst the thicket ecosystem, the municipality has grown and expanded over the recent past. The study spread over an 18-year period from 1994- 2012. Based on field surveys and SPOT imagery, built-up areas of BCMM was extracted for different periods. Data used for the study are census data for BCMM, 1994, 2000, 2006 and 2012 SPOT images, images of BCMM acquired from Google earth 2018. The rate of transformation of the area was calculated and it was higher compared to that of population growth. Based on this data urban growth are analysed with the assistance of landscape metrics that include Shannon entropy. The outcomes confirm that this metropolitan municipality has experienced sprawl and sprawl has done so at cumulative rate

Resilient Urban Futures

This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change

Impacts of Landscape Change on Water Resources

Changes in land use and land cover can have many drivers, including population growth, urbanization, agriculture, demand for food, evolution of socio-economic structure, policy regulations, and climate variability. The impacts of these changes on water resources range from changes in water availability (due to changes in losses of water to evapotranspiration and recharge) to degradation of water quality (increased erosion, salinity, chemical loadings, and pathogens). The impacts are manifested through complex hydro-bio-geo-climate characteristics, which underscore the need for integrated scientific approaches to understand the impacts of landscape change on water resources. Several techniques, such as field studies, long-term monitoring, remote sensing technologies, and advanced modeling studies, have contributed to better understanding the modes and mechanisms by which landscape changes impact water resources. Such research studies can help unlock the complex interconnected influences of landscape on water resources in terms of quantity and quality at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this Special Issue, we published a set of eight peer-reviewed articles elaborating on some of the specific topics of landscape changes and associated impacts on water resources

Resilient Urban Futures

This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: a review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail