MDFEM: Multivariate decomposition finite element method for elliptic PDEs with lognormal diffusion coefficients using higher-order QMC and FEM

We introduce the multivariate decomposition finite element method for elliptic PDEs with lognormal diffusion coefficient $a=\exp(Z)$ where $Z$ is a Gaussian random field defined by an infinite series expansion $Z(\boldsymbol{y}) = \sum_{j \ge 1} y_j \, \phi_j$ with $y_j \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$ and a given sequence of functions $\{\phi_j\}_{j \ge 1}$. We use the MDFEM to approximate the expected value of a linear functional of the solution of the PDE which is an infinite-dimensional integral over the parameter space. The proposed algorithm uses the multivariate decomposition method to compute the infinite-dimensional integral by a decomposition into finite-dimensional integrals, which we resolve using quasi-Monte Carlo methods, and for which we use the finite element method to solve different instances of the PDE. We develop higher-order quasi-Monte Carlo rules for integration over the finite-dimensional Euclidean space with respect to the Gaussian distribution by use of a truncation strategy. By linear transformations of interlaced polynomial lattice rules from the unit cube to a multivariate box of the Euclidean space we achieve higher-order convergence rates for functions belonging to a class of anchored Gaussian Sobolev spaces while taking into account the truncation error. Under appropriate conditions, the MDFEM achieves higher-order convergence rates in term of error versus cost, i.e., to achieve an accuracy of $O(\epsilon)$ the computational cost is $O(\epsilon^{-1/\lambda-d'/\lambda}) = O(\epsilon^{-(p^* + d'/\tau)/(1-p^*)})$ where $\epsilon^{-1/\lambda}$ and $\epsilon^{-d'/\lambda}$ are respectively the cost of the quasi-Monte Carlo cubature and the finite element approximations, with $d' = d \, (1+\delta')$ for some $\delta' \ge 0$ and $d$ the physical dimension, and $0 < p^* \le (2 + d'/\tau)^{-1}$ is a parameter representing the sparsity of $\{\phi_j\}_{j \ge 1}$.Comment: 48 page

Quasi-geometric integration of guiding-center orbits in piecewise linear toroidal fields

A numerical integration method for guiding-center orbits of charged particles in toroidal fusion devices with three-dimensional field geometry is described. Here, high order interpolation of electromagnetic fields in space is replaced by a special linear interpolation, leading to locally linear Hamiltonian equations of motion with piecewise constant coefficients. This approach reduces computational effort and noise sensitivity while the conservation of total energy, magnetic moment and phase space volume is retained. The underlying formulation treats motion in piecewise linear fields exactly and thus preserves the non-canonical symplectic form. The algorithm itself is only quasi-geometric due to a series expansion in the orbit parameter. For practical purposes an expansion to the fourth order retains geometric properties down to computer accuracy in typical examples. When applied to collisionless guiding-center orbits in an axisymmetric tokamak and a realistic three-dimensional stellarator configuration, the method demonstrates stable long-term orbit dynamics conserving invariants. In Monte Carlo evaluation of transport coefficients, the computational efficiency of quasi-geometric integration is an order of magnitude higher than with a standard fourth order Runge-Kutta integrator.Comment: 38 pages, 11 figure

Application of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to PDEs with random coefficients -- an overview and tutorial

This article provides a high-level overview of some recent works on the application of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods to PDEs with random coefficients. It is based on an in-depth survey of a similar title by the same authors, with an accompanying software package which is also briefly discussed here. Embedded in this article is a step-by-step tutorial of the required analysis for the setting known as the uniform case with first order QMC rules. The aim of this article is to provide an easy entry point for QMC experts wanting to start research in this direction and for PDE analysts and practitioners wanting to tap into contemporary QMC theory and methods.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1606.0661

Pricing and Risk Management with High-Dimensional Quasi Monte Carlo and Global Sensitivity Analysis

We review and apply Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques to pricing and risk management (greeks) of representative financial instruments of increasing complexity. We compare QMC vs standard Monte Carlo (MC) results in great detail, using high-dimensional Sobol' low discrepancy sequences, different discretization methods, and specific analyses of convergence, performance, speed up, stability, and error optimization for finite differences greeks. We find that our QMC outperforms MC in most cases, including the highest-dimensional simulations and greeks calculations, showing faster and more stable convergence to exact or almost exact results. Using GSA, we are able to fully explain our findings in terms of reduced effective dimension of our QMC simulation, allowed in most cases, but not always, by Brownian bridge discretization. We conclude that, beyond pricing, QMC is a very promising technique also for computing risk figures, greeks in particular, as it allows to reduce the computational effort of high-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations typical of modern risk management.Comment: 43 pages, 21 figures, 6 table

Efficient calculation of the worst-case error and (fast) component-by-component construction of higher order polynomial lattice rules

We show how to obtain a fast component-by-component construction algorithm for higher order polynomial lattice rules. Such rules are useful for multivariate quadrature of high-dimensional smooth functions over the unit cube as they achieve the near optimal order of convergence. The main problem addressed in this paper is to find an efficient way of computing the worst-case error. A general algorithm is presented and explicit expressions for base~2 are given. To obtain an efficient component-by-component construction algorithm we exploit the structure of the underlying cyclic group. We compare our new higher order multivariate quadrature rules to existing quadrature rules based on higher order digital nets by computing their worst-case error. These numerical results show that the higher order polynomial lattice rules improve upon the known constructions of quasi-Monte Carlo rules based on higher order digital nets

Estimation with Numerical Integration on Sparse Grids

For the estimation of many econometric models, integrals without analytical solutions have to be evaluated. Examples include limited dependent variables and nonlinear panel data models. In the case of one-dimensional integrals, Gaussian quadrature is known to work efficiently for a large class of problems. In higher dimensions, similar approaches discussed in the literature are either very specific and hard to implement or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions - a problem known as the "curse of dimensionality" of numerical integration. We propose a strategy that shares the advantages of Gaussian quadrature methods, is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the random parameters logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques

Evaluation of advanced optimisation methods for estimating Mixed Logit models

The performances of different simulation-based estimation techniques for mixed logit modeling are evaluated. A quasi-Monte Carlo method (modified Latin hypercube sampling) is compared with a Monte Carlo algorithm with dynamic accuracy. The classic Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) optimization algorithm line-search approach and trust region methods, which have proved to be extremely powerful in nonlinear programming, are also compared. Numerical tests are performed on two real data sets: stated preference data for parking type collected in the United Kingdom, and revealed preference data for mode choice collected as part of a German travel diary survey. Several criteria are used to evaluate the approximation quality of the log likelihood function and the accuracy of the results and the associated estimation runtime. Results suggest that the trust region approach outperforms the BFGS approach and that Monte Carlo methods remain competitive with quasi-Monte Carlo methods in high-dimensional problems, especially when an adaptive optimization algorithm is used