Efficient Multi-agent Epistemic Planning: Teaching Planners About Nested Belief

Many AI applications involve the interaction of multiple autonomous agents, requiring those agents to reason about their own beliefs, as well as those of other agents. However, planning involving nested beliefs is known to be computationally challenging. In this work, we address the task of synthesizing plans that necessitate reasoning about the beliefs of other agents. We plan from the perspective of a single agent with the potential for goals and actions that involve nested beliefs, non-homogeneous agents, co-present observations, and the ability for one agent to reason as if it were another. We formally characterize our notion of planning with nested belief, and subsequently demonstrate how to automatically convert such problems into problems that appeal to classical planning technology for solving efficiently. Our approach represents an important step towards applying the well-established field of automated planning to the challenging task of planning involving nested beliefs of multiple agents

Towards full-scale autonomy for multi-vehicle systems planning and acting in extreme environments

Currently, robotic technology offers flexible platforms for addressing many challenging problems that arise in extreme environments. These problems’ nature enhances the use of heterogeneous multi-vehicle systems which can coordinate and collaborate to achieve a common set of goals. While such applications have previously been explored in limited contexts, long-term deployments in such settings often require an advanced level of autonomy to maintain operability. The success of planning and acting approaches for multi-robot systems are conditioned by including reasoning regarding temporal, resource and knowledge requirements, and world dynamics. Automated planning provides the tools to enable intelligent behaviours in robotic systems. However, whilst many planning approaches and plan execution techniques have been proposed, these solutions highlight an inability to consistently build and execute high-quality plans. Motivated by these challenges, this thesis presents developments advancing state-of-the-art temporal planning and acting to address multi-robot problems. We propose a set of advanced techniques, methods and tools to build a high-level temporal planning and execution system that can devise, execute and monitor plans suitable for long-term missions in extreme environments. We introduce a new task allocation strategy, called HRTA, that optimises the task distribution amongst the heterogeneous fleet, relaxes the planning problem and boosts the plan search. We implement the TraCE planner that enforces contingent planning considering propositional temporal and numeric constraints to deal with partial observability about the initial state. Our developments regarding robust plan execution and mission adaptability include the HLMA, which efficiently optimises the task allocation and refines the planning model considering the experience from robots’ previous mission executions. We introduce the SEA failure solver that, combined with online planning, overcomes unexpected situations during mission execution, deals with joint goals implementation, and enhances mission operability in long-term deployments. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our approaches with a series of experiments using a new set of real-world planning domains.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant EP/R026173/

Bus Route Operational Efficiency Evaluation in Milwaukee County

ABSTRACT BUS ROUTE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY EVALUATION IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY by Ebtesam Hazbavi The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 2015 Under the Supervision of Professor Yue Liu Public transit systems are expanding in the majority of cities in the United States due to the increasing numbers of people who use public transportation as their main commute facility. Evaluating the efficiency of public transit systems results in providing better services for the residents on one hand and reduces the unnecessary costs on the other hand. In this research, the efficiencies of bus routes options in County are evaluated. After reviewing different literature, Fuzzy AHP model is selected as the main decision making model. AHP is one of the preferred methods of decision making in solving complex problems, which provides the opportunity of involving all provided criteria in the final decisions. In this research, the efficiency was calculated for Fixed Routes and Free Flyer Routes, daily and during the peak hours. The data of this research are obtained from Milwaukee county 2013 annual ridership report as routine reports published by Milwaukee county transit system (MCTS). In conclusion, various solutions are suggested for improving the transit system in Milwaukee County

The American futures studies movement (1965-1975); its roots, motivations, and influences

In the 1960s and 1970s many Americans of widely dissimilar motivations used the study of possible futures as an open forum to express their desires, fears, and visions. Their efforts led to new organizations, publications, conferences, and university programs, which constituted an intellectual movement with far-reaching influences. The emergence of post-WWII futurism is a multi-stranded history involving people with diverse motivations and backgrounds who aspired to revolutionize policymaking at all levels. Their efforts crossed national borders and often transcended Cold War divisions. Many futurists hailed from governmental, business, or scientific backgrounds and advocated for issues ranging from national economic planning boards, or future-consciousness at corporate levels of decision-making, to sustainable ecological practices. One of their many historical strands went back to the early Cold War years and the philosopher-mathematicians employed by the RAND Corporation. Given the sensitive forecasting challenges brought by Cold War unknowns, these architects of futurist methodologies believed they needed to devise better - more scientific - opinion technologies. Their search for improving the tools, such as the Delphi method, of future-minded decision-making continued into the 1960s and 1970s. While qualitative assessments still reigned supreme in the social sciences, quantitative analysis became increasingly important during the 1960s. Futurists used social, political, and economic indicators to study alternative futures and comment on their presents. These futures researchers prized the quantification of past and present values both for physical and social concepts. From these numbers, they aspired to clarify the future: how to predict and understand it, and ultimately how to change it for the better. Futurists cared about many things, not only about perfecting their methodologies or epistemic foundations, but also about addressing current, pragmatic, and popular issues. The desire to disseminate their ideas more widely and have their methodology gain greater influence compelled futurists to organize and formalize their field. The field\u27s momentum slowed down by the 1980s as many critics disapproved of futurist methods and the deterministic, wishful, or simplistic outlooks that some futurists imagined. Although the movement in the United States was unique, other international case-studies developed in distinct yet comparable ways. Although futures researchers around the globe for centuries had enjoyed speculating about the future, this twentieth-century movement promised better predictions that were more systematic, detailed, controlled, quantitative, and expert

Sales and operations planning : design and implementation of S&OP process in a multinational company

The company under scrutiny in this thesis is Aker Solutions Process Systems. As a part of the Aker Solutions group, Process Systems is a leading global supplier of processing equipment for oil, water and gas, operating worldwide. The company´s operational objective when implementing this process was to optimize the utilization of resources in it´s five different Business Units. The actions undertaken by the company to develop and implement a Sales and Operations Planning process were carefully record and posteriorly analysed. Sales and Operations Planning is a recognized cross-functional business process, designed to allow the company to synchronise supply and demand, bridge strategic planning with daily activities, and by reviewing performance measures, push continuous improvement, and cross-functional integration (Grimson and Pyke 2007; Dwyer 2000; Cox and Blackstone 2002, Gregory 1999). The evaluation of the maturity of the Sales and Operations Planning process in question is done according to two different models. The Grimson and Pyke Model described in the 2007 paper “Sales and Operations Planning: an Exploratory Study and Framework” and Lapide´s 2005 “Four-Stage S&OP Process Maturity Model”. There are three distinct evaluation periods, the first in an initial stage before the implementation of the S&OP process, one in half way through the implementation of the S&OP process and a final after the implementation of the S&OP process. The results suggest that theoretically by the third evaluation of the process the implementation was achieved and the process presented a level of maturity that should allow the management to use the results of the process to define resource optimization actions. However, the practical results of the process suggest that by the third evaluation, the process is not yet able to produce any useful information

Team adaptation in complex work environments

A adaptação é fundamental para a eficácia do trabalho em equipa em ambientes complexos. A literatura sugere que as características dos membros da equipa, os processos episódicos e os estados emergentes contribuem para a capacidade de as equipas se comportarem de forma adaptativa. No entanto, as causas e condições em que estas variáveis se relacionam e contribuem para a adaptação em ambientes de trabalho complexos exige mais investigação. Nesta dissertação, vamos concentrar-nos nas dinâmicas multinível, transversais e longitudinais que caracterizam o processo adaptativo. Os participantes dos estudos feitos nesta dissertação foram estudantes universitários, e trabalhadores de diversos contextos organizacionais (e.g. gestão; saúde hospitalar; policia). O teste das hipóteses de investigação foi feito através de metodologias de regressão e equações estruturais. A metodologia de regressão foi utilizada para estimar os efeitos diretos, indiretos e condicionados. A modelagem com equações estruturais foi utilizada para estimar os efeitos indiretos, multinível e longitudinais. No geral, os resultados sugerem que a performance adaptativa contribui para a eficácia das equipas em ambientes de trabalho complexos. Os nossos resultados também clarificam a natureza das relações entre as características dos membros das equipas, os processos e estados emergentes. Esta dissertação contribui para a teoria e a prática, uma vez que amplia o conhecimento prévio sobre as dinâmicas de adaptação do trabalho em equipa, e tece recomendações de como e por que razões as práticas de GRH devem incorporar os resultados desta dissertação na gestão de pessoas.Team adaptation is paramount for effective teamwork in complex work environments. Literature suggests that team member characteristics, episodic team processes, and emergent states contribute to collective ability to behave adaptively. However, we know very little about the causes and conditions under which these constructs relate to predict adaptation and effectiveness in complex work environments requires further clarification. In this dissertation, we focus on the multilevel, cross-level and longitudinal examination of the dynamics of team member characteristics, episodic team processes, and emergent states driving team adaptation in the work place. In this dissertation data collection was done in simulated and field settings. Participants were university students and professional workers from diverse organizational settings (e.g. business; healthcare; police). Hypotheses testing were done through regression and structural equations modelling. Regression was used to estimate direct, indirect, and conditioned effects. Structural equations modelling were used to estimate indirect, multilevel and longitudinal effects. Overall, the results suggest that team adaptation contributes to team effectiveness in complex work environments. Our results also contribute to clarify the entanglement between team member characteristics, processes and emergent states in teams. This dissertation contributes to theory and practice as it extends previous knowledge on the dynamics of team adaptation, and it makes recommendations of why and how HRM practices should incorporate our findings in people management

Foundations of Trusted Autonomy

Trusted Autonomy; Automation Technology; Autonomous Systems; Self-Governance; Trusted Autonomous Systems; Design of Algorithms and Methodologie