Comparing techniques for modelling uncertainty in a maritime inventory routing problem

Uncertainty is inherent in many planning situations. One example is in maritime transportation, where weather conditions and port occupancy are typically characterized by high levels of uncertainty. This paper considers a maritime inventory routing problem where travel times are uncertain. Taking into account possible delays in the travel times is of main importance to avoid inventory surplus or shortages at the storages located at ports. Several techniques to deal with uncertainty, namely deterministic models with inventory buffers; robust optimization; stochastic programming and models incorporating conditional value-at-risk measures, are considered. The different techniques are tested for their ability to deal with uncertain travel times for a single product maritime inventory routing problem with constant production and consumption rates, a fleet of heterogeneous vessels and multiple ports. At the ports, the product is either produced or consumed and stored in storages with limited capacity. We assume two-stages of decisions, where the routing, the visit order of the ports and the quantities to load/unload are first-stage decisions (fixed before the uncertainty is revealed), while the visit time and the inventory levels at ports are second-stage decisions (adjusted to the observed travel times). Several solution approaches resulting from the proposed techniques are considered. A computational comparison of the resulting solution approaches is performed to compare the routing costs, the amount of inventory bounds deviation, the total quantities loaded and unloaded, and the running times. This computational experiment is reported for a set of maritime instances having up to six ports and five ships.publishe

A Modelling of Genetic Algorithm for Inventory Routing Problem Simulation Optimisation

This paper presents the simulation optimization modelling for Inventory Routing Problem (IRP) using Genetic Algorithm method. The IRP simulation model is based on the stochastic periodic Can-Deliver policy that allows early replenishment for the retailers who have reached the can-deliver level and consolidates the delivery with other retailers that have reached or fallen below the must-deliver level. The Genetic Algorithm is integrated into the IRP simulation model as optimizer in effort to determine the optimal inventory control parameters that minimized the total cost. This study implemented a Taguchi Method for the experimental design to evaluate the GA performance for different combination of population and mutation rate and to determine the best parameters setting for GA with respect to the computational time and best generation number on determining the optimal inventory control. The result shows that the variations of the mutation rate parameter significantly affect the performance of IRP model compared to population size at 95% confidence level. The implementation of elite preservation during the mutation stage is able to improve the performance of GA by keeping the best solution and used for generating the next population. The results indicated that the best generation number is obtained at GA configuration settings on large population sizes (100) with low mutation rates(0.08). The study also affirms the premature convergence problem faced in GA that required improvement by integrating with the neighbourhood search approach

공컨테이너관리 기법을 활용한 효율적인 컨테이너 공급망

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2021. 2. 문일경.Due to a remarkable surge in global trade volumes led by maritime transportation, shipping companies should make a great effort in managing their container flows especially in case of carrier-owned containers. To do so, they comprehensively implement empty container management strategies and accelerate the flows in a cost- and time-efficient manner to minimize total relevant costs while serving the maximal level of customers demands. However, many critical issues in container flows universally exist due to high uncertainty in reality and hinder the establishment of an efficient container supply chain. In this dissertation, we fully discuss such issues and provide mathematical models along with specific solution procedures. Three types of container supply chain are presented in the following: (i) a two-way four-echelon container supply chain; (ii) a laden and empty container supply chain under decentralized and centralized policies; (iii) a reliable container supply chain under disruption. These models explicitly deal with high risks embedded in a container supply chain and their computational experiments offer underlying managerial insights for the management in shipping companies. For (i), we study empty container management strategy in a two-way four-echelon container supply chain for bilateral trade between two countries. The strategy reduces high maritime transportation costs and long delivery times due to transshipment. The impact of direct shipping is investigated to determine the number of empty containers to be repositioned among selected ports, number of leased containers, and route selection to satisfy the demands for empty and laden containers for exporters and importers in two regions. A hybrid solution procedure based on accelerated particle swarm optimization and heuristic is presented, and corresponding results are compared. For (ii), we introduce the laden and empty container supply chain model based on three scenarios that differ with regard to tardiness in the return of empty containers and the decision process for the imposition of fees with the goal of determining optimal devanning times. The effectiveness of each type of policy - centralized versus decentralized - is determined through computational experiments that produce key performance measures including the on-time return ratio. Useful managerial insights on the implementation of these polices are derived from the results of sensitivity analyses and comparative studies. For (iii), we develop a reliability model based on container network flow while also taking into account expected transportation costs, including street-turn and empty container repositioning costs, in case of arc- and node-failures. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to analyze the impact of disruption on container supply chain networks, and a benchmark model was used to determine disruption costs. More importantly, some managerial insights on how to establish and maintain a reliable container network flow are also provided.해상 수송이 주도함으로써 전 세계 무역량이 급증하기 때문에 회사 소유 컨테이너는 컨테이너 흐름을 관리하는 데 많은 노력을 기울여야 한다. 이를 위해 공 컨테이너 관리 전략을 포괄적으로 구현하고 효율적인 수송 비용 및 시간 절감 방식으로 컨테이너 흐름을 원활히 하여 관련 총비용을 최소화하는 동시에 고객의 수요를 최대한 충족하게 된다. 그러나 현실에서는 높은 불확실성 때문에 컨테이너 흐름에 대한 많은 주요한 이슈가 보편적으로 존재하고 효율적인 컨테이너 공급망 구축을 방해한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 이슈에 대해 전반적으로 논의하고 적절한 해법과 함께 수리 모형을 제공한다. 이를 위해 세 가지 유형의 컨테이너 공급망을 다룬다. 먼저 (i) 양방향 네 단계 컨테이너 공급망, (ii) 분권화 및 중앙 집중화 정책에 따른 적∙공 컨테이너 공급망; 그리고 (iii) disruption 상황 속에서 신뢰성을 고려하는 컨테이너 공급망이다. 본 논문에서 제시한 세 가지 모형은 컨테이너 공급망에 내재 된 높은 위험을 직접 다루며 계산 실험은 해운 회사의 경영진이나 관계자를 위해 주요한 관리 인사이트를 제공한다. (i)의 경우, 두 지역 간 양자 무역을 위한 양방향 네 단계 컨테이너 공급망에서 공 컨테이너 관리 전략을 연구한다. 이 전략은 환적으로 인한 높은 해상 운송 비용과 긴 배송 시간을 줄일 수 있다. 또한, 직항 수송의 영향을 조사하여 선택된 항구 중 재배치 할 공 컨테이너 수, 임대 컨테이너 수, 두 지역의 수출업자와 수입업자의 적∙공 컨테이너 대한 수요를 만족하기 위한 경로 선택을 결정하게 된다. APSO 및 휴리스틱을 기반으로 하는 하이브리드 해법을 제시하며 비교 실험을 하였다. (ii)의 경우 최적 devanning time 결정을 목표로 공 컨테이너의 반환 지연과 해당 수수료 부과 결정 프로세스와 관련하여 서로 다른 세 가지 시나리오를 기반으로 적∙공 컨테이너 공급망 모형을 제시한다. 각 유형의 정책적(분권화 및 중앙 집중화) 효과는 정시 반환율을 포함한 주요 성능 측정을 고려하는 계산 실험을 통해 결정된다. 이러한 정책 실행에 대한 유용한 관리 인사이트는 민감도 분석 및 비교 연구의 결과에서 도출한다. (iii)의 경우, 본 논문은 컨테이너 네트워크 흐름을 기반으로 하는 신뢰성 모형을 개발하는 동시에 아크 및 노드 failure가 있을 때 street-turn 및 공 컨테이너 재배치 비용을 포함한 기대 총 비용을 구한다. 중단이 컨테이너 공급망 네트워크에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 민감도 분석을 수행했으며 disruption 비용을 결정하기 위해 벤치마크 모형을 활용한다. 더불어 신뢰성을 고려한 컨테이너 네트워크 흐름을 구축하고 신뢰성을 유지하는 방법에 대한 관리적 인사이트도 제공한다.Abstract i Contents ii List of Tables vi List of Figures viii 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Empty Container Repositioning Problem 1 1.2 Reliability Problem 3 1.3 Research Motivation and Contributions 4 1.4 Outline of the Dissertation 7 2. Two-Way Four-Echelon Container Supply Chain 8 2.1 Problem Description and Literature Review 8 2.2 Mathematical Model for the TFESC 15 2.2.1 Overview and Assumptions 15 2.2.2 Notation and Formulation 19 2.3 Solution Procedure for the TFESC 25 2.3.1 Pseudo-Function-based Optimization Problem 25 2.3.2 Objective Function Evaluation 28 2.3.3 Heuristics for Reducing the Number of Leased Containers 32 2.3.4 Accelerated Particle Swarm Optimization 34 2.4 Computational Experiments 37 2.4.1 Heuristic Performances 39 2.4.2 Senstivity Analysis of Varying Periods 42 2.4.3 Senstivity Analysis of Varying Number of Echelons 45 2.5 Summary 48 3. Laden and Empty Container Supply Chain under Decentralized and Centralized Policies 50 3.1 Problem Description and Literature Review 50 3.2 Scenario-based Model for the LESC-DC 57 3.3 Model Development for the LESC-DC 61 3.3.1 Centralized Policy 65 3.3.2 Decentralized Policies (Policies I and II) 67 3.4 Computational Experiments 70 3.4.1 Numerical Exmpale 70 3.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis of Varying Degree of Risk in Container Return 72 3.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Increasing L_0 74 3.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis of Increasing t_r 76 3.4.5 Sensitivity Analysis of Decreasing es and Increasing e_f 77 3.4.6 Sensitivity Analysis of Discounting 〖pn〗_{f1} and 〖pn〗_{f2} 78 3.4.7 Sensitivity Analysis of Different Container Fleet Sizes 79 3.5 Managerial Insights 81 3.6 Summary 83 4. Reliable Container Supply Chain under Disruption 84 4.1 Problem Description and Literature Review 84 4.2 Mathematical Model for the RCNF 90 4.3 Reliability Model under Disruption 95 4.3.1 Designing the Patterns of q and s 95 4.3.2 Objective Function for the RCNF Model 98 4.4 Computational Experiments 103 4.4.1 Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Failure Costs 106 4.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis of Different Network Structures 109 4.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Demand-Supply Variation 112 4.4.4 Managerial Insights 115 4.5 Summary 116 5. Conclusions and Future Research 117 Appendices 120 A Proof of Proposition 3.1 121 B Proof of Proposition 3.2 124 C Proof of Proposition 3.3 126 D Sensitivity Analyses for Results 129 E Data for Sensitivity Analyses 142 Bibliography 146 국문초록 157 감사의 글 160Docto

Optimising the climate resilience of shipping networks

Climate catastrophes (e.g. hurricane, flooding and heat waves) are generating increasing impact on port operations and hence configuration of shipping networks. This paper formulates the routing problem to optimise the resilience of shipping networks, by taking into account the disruptions due to climate risks to port operations. It first describes a literature review with the emphasis on environmental sustainability, port disruptions due to climate extremes and routing optimisation in shipping operations. Second, a centrality assessment of port cities by a novel multi-centrality-based indicator is implemented. Third, a climate resilience model is developed by incorporating the port disruption days by climate risks into shipping route optimisation. Its main contribution is constructing a novel methodology to connect climate risk indices, centrality assessment, and shipping routing to observe the changes of global shipping network by climate change impacts