A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing

The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During the past 10,000 years, the Sun has experienced substantial variations in activity and there have been numerous attempts to reconstruct solar irradiance. While there is general agreement on how solar forcing varied during the last several hundred years --- all reconstructions are proportional to the solar activity --- there is scientific controversy on the magnitude of solar forcing. We present a reconstruction of the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance covering 130 nm--10 $\mu$m from 1610 to the present with annual resolution and for the Holocene with 22-year resolution. We assume that the minimum state of the quiet Sun in time corresponds to the observed quietest area on the present Sun. Then we use available long-term proxies of the solar activity, which are $^{10}$Be isotope concentrations in ice cores and 22-year smoothed neutron monitor data, to interpolate between the present quiet Sun and the minimum state of the quiet Sun. This determines the long-term trend in the solar variability which is then superposed with the 11-year activity cycle calculated from the sunspot number. The time-dependent solar spectral irradiance from about 7000 BC to the present is then derived using a state-of-the-art radiation code. We derive a total and spectral solar irradiance that was substantially lower during the Maunder minimum than observed today. The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations published in the recent literature. The magnitude of the solar UV variability, which indirectly affects climate is also found to exceed previous estimates. We discuss in details the assumptions which leaded us to this conclusion.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysic

Neutron monitors and muon detectors for solar modulation studies: 2. ϕ\phi time series

The level of solar modulation at different times (related to the solar activity) is a central question of solar and galactic cosmic-ray physics. In the first paper of this series, we have established a correspondence between the uncertainties on ground-based detectors count rates and the parameter $\phi$ (modulation level in the force-field approximation) reconstructed from these count rates. In this second paper, we detail a procedure to obtain a reference $\phi$ time series from neutron monitor data. We show that we can have an unbiased and accurate $\phi$ reconstruction ($\Delta\phi/\phi\simeq 10\%$). We also discuss the potential of Bonner spheres spectrometers and muon detectors to provide $\phi$ time series. Two by-products of this calculation are updated $\phi$ values for the cosmic-ray database and a web interface to retrieve and plot $\phi$ from the 50's to today (\url{http://lpsc.in2p3.fr/crdb}).Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. AdSR, in press. Web interface to get modulation parameter phi(t): new tab in http://lpsc.in2p3.fr/crd

Investigating plywood behaviour in outdoor conditions

Moisture behaviour of plywood is investigated in combination with detailed structural analysis. In the lab, neutron radiography and X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT) were used to map the moisture distribution and internal structure of plywood respectively. In an outdoor natural weathering test, the average moisture content (MC) and moisture distribution of plywood were monitored using a continuous moisture measurement set-up and an adapted electrical method, respectively. The structural changes of the specimens during weathering were recorded by using X-ray CT. Based on the interrelationship of moisture behaviour and structure, suggestions are given for improving the water resistance of plywood by optimising structure

Neutron monitors and muon detectors for solar modulation studies: Interstellar flux, yield function, and assessment of critical parameters in count rate calculations

Particles count rates at given Earth location and altitude result from the convolution of (i) the interstellar (IS) cosmic-ray fluxes outside the solar cavity, (ii) the time-dependent modulation of IS into Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, (iii) the rigidity cut-off (or geomagnetic transmission function) and grammage at the counter location, (iv) the atmosphere response to incoming TOA cosmic rays (shower development), and (v) the counter response to the various particles/energies in the shower. Count rates from neutron monitors or muon counters are therefore a proxy to solar activity. In this paper, we review all ingredients, discuss how their uncertainties impact count rate calculations, and how they translate into variation/uncertainties on the level of solar modulation $\varphi$ (in the simple Force-Field approximation). The main uncertainty for neutron monitors is related to the yield function. However, many other effects have a significant impact, at the 5-10\% level on $\varphi$ values. We find no clear ranking of the dominant effects, as some depend on the station position and/or the weather and/or the season. An abacus to translate any variation of count rates (for neutron and $\mu$ detectors) to a variation of the solar modulation $\varphi$ is provided.Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures, 9 tables, match accepted version in AdSR (minor corrections, Dorman (1974,2004,2009) reference textbooks added

Revisiting two-step Forbush decreases

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their shocks can sweep out galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), thus creating Forbush decreases (FDs). The traditional model of FDs predicts that an ICME and its shock decrease the GCR intensity in a two-step profile. This model, however, has been the focus of little testing. Thus, our goal is to discover whether a passing ICME and its shock inevitably lead to a two-step FD, as predicted by the model. We use cosmic ray data from 14 neutron monitors and, when possible, high time resolution GCR data from the spacecraft International Gamma Ray Astrophysical Laboratory (INTEGRAL). We analyze 233 ICMEs that should have created two-step FDs. Of these, only 80 created FDs, and only 13 created two-step FDs. FDs are thus less common than predicted by the model. The majority of events indicates that profiles of FDs are more complicated, particularly within the ICME sheath, than predicted by the model. We conclude that the traditional model of FDs as having one or two steps should be discarded. We also conclude that generally ignored small-scale interplanetary magnetic field structure can contribute to the observed variety of FD profiles

Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

Recent reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) postulate that quiet Sun variations could give significant changes to solar power input to Earth’s climate (radiative climate forcings of 0.7-1.1Wm-2 over 1700-2019) arising from changes in quiet-Sun magnetic fields that have not, as yet, been observed. Reconstructions without such changes yield solar forcings that are smaller by a factor of more than 10. We study the quiet-Sun TSI since 1995 for three reasons: (1) this interval shows rapid decay in average solar activity following the grand solar maximum in 1985 (such that activity in 2019 was broadly equivalent to that in 1900); (2) there is improved consensus between TSI observations; and (3) it contains the first modelling of TSI that is independent of the observations. Our analysis shows the most likely upward drift in quiet-Sun radiative forcing since 1700 is between +0.07 and 0.13Wm-2. Hence we cannot yet discriminate between the quiet-Sun TSI being enhanced or reduced during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima, although there is a growing consensus from the combinations of models and observations that it was slightly enhanced. We present reconstructions that add quiet-Sun TSI and its uncertainty to models that reconstruct the effects of sunspots and faculae