An Integrative Analysis of Business Bankruptcy in Australia.

This paper proposes an integrative and dynamic approach for analyzing business failure. The simulaneous estimation results obtained with Australian data indicate significant associations between bankruptcy rates in different industries. Most of these associations are positive and hence implying that bankruptcy in one industry can inflict a "domino" effect on other industries.BANKRUPTCY

On the role of distribution in different theories of cyclical growth

Investment;econometrics

The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions

The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. This paper investigates three central aspects about this chronology: (1) How skillful is the BCDC in classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? (2) Which indices of business conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And (3) Which indicators predict future turning points best and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail with methods novel to economics designed to assess classification ability. In the process we clarify several important features of business cycle phenomena.business cycle turning points, receiver operating characteristic curve

Business Cycles with Endogenous Mark-ups

Endogenous mark-ups have been a matter of interest in macroeconomics, especially from the middle 1990’s onwards. However, the complexity of this class of models, does not allow general ualitative conclusions in most cases, and there is plenty of room for investigation, especially in the reasons driving the emergence of multiple equilibria and non-saddle-point dynamics. In this article we extend a simple dynamic general equilibrium model to include the possibility of strategic interaction between producers in each industry, and entry affects the level of macroeconomic efficiency through an endogenous mark-up. We demonstrate multiple equilibria is a likely outcome even in an exogenous labour-supply framework. A pair of equilibria exists (a stable and an unstable one) and they are connected through a heteroclinic orbit. When we allow labour supply to vary, a third equilibrium may emerge if the government is present in the economy, and local indeterminacy may existEndogenous mark-ups, Multiple equilibria, Local dynamics

Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction

Bankruptcy prediction is one of the most important research areas in corporate finance. Bankruptcies are an indispensable element of the functioning of the market economy, and at the same time generate significant losses for stakeholders. Hence, this book was established to collect the results of research on the latest trends in predicting the bankruptcy of enterprises. It suggests models developed for different countries using both traditional and more advanced methods. Problems connected with predicting bankruptcy during periods of prosperity and recession, the selection of appropriate explanatory variables, as well as the dynamization of models are presented. The reliability of financial data and the validity of the audit are also referenced. Thus, I hope that this book will inspire you to undertake new research in the field of forecasting the risk of bankruptcy

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Building a boundaryless manufacturing organisation through HITOP method

There is little empirical research to support the allegation that ‘leagile’ manufacturing organisations thrive in hostile environments, nor has it been demonstrated that organisation processes (referred to as enablers) actually support ‘leagile’ performance. This study tests the statistical significance of five selected HITOP (highly integrated technology, organisation and people) ‘leagile’ enablers. This was accomplished by using a mail survey instrument to measure the presence of ‘leagile enablers’ in a sample of companies taken from best factory award winners in UK, US and Japan. [Continues.

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets