A Better Alternative to Piecewise Linear Time Series Segmentation

Time series are difficult to monitor, summarize and predict. Segmentation organizes time series into few intervals having uniform characteristics (flatness, linearity, modality, monotonicity and so on). For scalability, we require fast linear time algorithms. The popular piecewise linear model can determine where the data goes up or down and at what rate. Unfortunately, when the data does not follow a linear model, the computation of the local slope creates overfitting. We propose an adaptive time series model where the polynomial degree of each interval vary (constant, linear and so on). Given a number of regressors, the cost of each interval is its polynomial degree: constant intervals cost 1 regressor, linear intervals cost 2 regressors, and so on. Our goal is to minimize the Euclidean (l_2) error for a given model complexity. Experimentally, we investigate the model where intervals can be either constant or linear. Over synthetic random walks, historical stock market prices, and electrocardiograms, the adaptive model provides a more accurate segmentation than the piecewise linear model without increasing the cross-validation error or the running time, while providing a richer vocabulary to applications. Implementation issues, such as numerical stability and real-world performance, are discussed.Comment: to appear in SIAM Data Mining 200

Using Pattern Recognition for Investment Decision Support in Taiwan Stock Market

In Taiwan stock market, it has been accumulated large amounts of time series stock data and successful investment strategies. The stock price, which is impacted by various factors, is the result of buyer-seller investment strategies. Since the stock price reflects numerous factors, its pattern can be described as the strategies of investors. In this paper, pattern recognition concept is adapted to match the current stock price trend with the repeatedly appearing past price data. Accordingly, a new method is introduced in this research that extracting features quickly from stock time series chart to find out the most critical feature points. The matching can be processed via the corresponding information of the feature points. In other words, the goal is to seek for the historical repeatedly appearing patterns, namely the similar trend, offering the investors to make investment strategies

Stock market trading rule discovery using technical analysis and a template matching technique for pattern recognition

For my dissertation, I propose to study the ability of technical analysis to predict price movements in the stock market by conducting a research that aims to investigate the potential profit of bull flag technical trading rules using a template matching technique, in contrast to the market average returns for the emerging stock markets of Brazil and China - Brazil Stock Market Index (BOVESPA) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE), respectively, for a time horizon of 31 years (1990 - 2021)

Charting patterns on price history

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