Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice

This article examines the relationship between projections of climate change and the responses to those projections. First, it discusses uncertainty and its role in shaping not only the production of climate projections but also the use of these projections by decision makers. We find that uncertainty critically affects the way climate projections move from useful to usable, where usefulness is defined by scientists' perception of users' needs, and usability is defined by users' perception of what knowledge can be readily applied to their decision. From the point of view of the natural scientist, we pose that there is an uncertainty fallacy, that is, a belief that the systematic reduction of uncertainty in climate projections is required in order for the projections to be used by decision makers. Second, we explore the implications of climate projections for policy and decision making, using examples from the seasonal climate forecast applications literature as an analog. We examine constraints and opportunities for their application in policy and practice and find that over-reliance on science and technical solutions might crowd out the moral imperative to do what is needed to improve livelihoods and to guarantee ecosystems' long-term sustainability. We conclude that, in the context of high uncertainty, decision makers should not look for ‘perfect’ forecasts, but seek to implement knowledge systems that integrate climate projections with other kinds of knowledge and that consider the multiple stressors that shape their decision environment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs websitePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78059/1/71_ftp.pd

Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake. METHODS: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty. DISCUSSION: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits. CONCLUSION: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health

Management of change, disaster risk, and uncertainty: An overview

This overview, based on the keywords change, disaster risk, and uncertainties, focuses on issues emerging from the 2001-2004 IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management; the uncertain effects of global climate change, implications for disasters due to differential vulnerabilities and rate of change. Other subjects addressed are the characterizing the uncertainties inherent in early warning systems, development of more adequate indicators for describing disasters, the need to investigate changes after disasters in order to develop stronger resilience, and movement towards institutional changes in order to address the global dimensions of disasters in a more and more deeply interconnected world

Characterizing uncertainty of the hydrologic impacts of climate change

The high climate sensitivity of hydrologic systems, the importance of those systems to society, and the imprecise nature of future climate projections all motivate interest in characterizing uncertainty in the hydrologic impacts of climate change. We discuss recent research that exposes important sources of uncertainty that are commonly neglected by the water management community, especially, uncertainties associated with internal climate system variability, and hydrologic modeling. We also discuss research exposing several issues with widely used climate downscaling methods. We propose that progress can be made following parallel paths: first, by explicitly characterizing the uncertainties throughout the modeling process (rather than using an ad hoc “ensemble of opportunity”) and second, by reducing uncertainties through developing criteria for excluding poor methods/models, as well as with targeted research to improve modeling capabilities. We argue that such research to reveal, reduce, and represent uncertainties is essential to establish a defensible range of quantitative hydrologic storylines of climate change impacts

Aperçus sur l'emergence et l'évolution conceptuelle de la géographie côtière en France

The paper provides an analytical overview of significant landmarks in the conceptual evolution of coastal geography in France since its emergence in the early 1950s. The paper comprises four sections dealing respectively with the following themes: 1. The conceptual trajectory of this field of study which resulted in significant broadening of its scope and methodology with the integration of physical geography and human geography dealing with coastal issues, which brought to adoption of a systemic approach and a broad vision characterizing global geography; 2. The remarkable complexity of the coastal space as reflected by the complex interactions between society and the natural environment and the resulting implications for the definition of this space; 3. The growing involvement of coastal geographers in management of the coastal space and the significance of their contribution to adopting an integrated management approach intended to advance sustainable development of coastal areas affected by rapidly increasing anthropization and natural forces with adverse impacts such as shoreline erosion and rising sea level; 4. The coastal vulnerability and environmental risk management, stressing the need for an appropriate land use planning.L'article offre un aperçu de l'évolution conceptuelle du domaine de la géographie du littoral en France dès son émergence au début des années 1950. Il inclut quatre sections portant respectivement sur les thèmes suivants: 1) La trajectoire conceptuelle qui aboutit à un développement significatif de la portée et de la méthodologie de ce domaine d'étude avec l'intégration de la géographie physique et de la géographie humaine s'occupant de questions relatives aux littoraux: vers l'adoption d'une approche systémique et d'une large vision propre de la géographie globale: 2) La complexité remarquable de l'espace littoral reflétée par les interactions entre la société et le milieu naturel et les implications qui en résultent pour la définition de cet espace. 3) L’implication croissante des géographes des littoraux dans la gestion de l’espace littoral et l’importance de leur contribution à l’adoption de l’approche de gestion intégrée pour l’avancement du développement durable: impacts de l’anthropisation et de facteurs naturels tels que l’érosion de la ligne côtière et l’élévation du niveau de la mer; 4) La vulnérabilité de l’espace littoral et la gestion du risque environnemental: la nécessité d’une gestion appropriée de l’occupation du sol

Chapter 2 - Integrated risk and uncertainty assessment of climate change response policies

This framing chapter considers ways in which risk and uncertainty can affect the process and outcome of strategic choices in responding to the threat of climate change