Current And Future Land Use Around A Nationwide Protected Area Network

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service\u27s National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our restricted-urban-growth\u27\u27 scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S

Mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Mid-Atlantic Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of 11 forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New York) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple forest impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before two multidisciplinary panels of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process

Modeling the Behavioral Landscape Ecology of a Reintroduced Carnivore

The American marten (Martes Americana) is an endangered forest carnivore native to the Upper Midwestern United States and culturally significant to local Ojibwe tribes. In this region, the marten faces a number of potential threats to its persistence, including competition, predation, lack of prey availability, lack of recruitment, and lack of population connectivity. To evaluate how marten behavior affects the conservation and management of this species, I developed an individual-based model to simulate marten dispersal and home range establishment. In Chapter 2, I describe the model and the process of calibrating it to perform comparably to real-world martens. I also demonstrate support for a theoretical hypothesis of animal dispersal, that a dispersing individual should be willing to settle in lower quality habitat over time. In Chapter 3, I apply this model to a nearby landscape in the region to determine how land use change, mortality, and asymmetrical landscape configuration affect the ability of martens to disperse and maintain connectivity between populations. Mortality of dispersing individuals had the greatest effect on connectivity, while landscape configuration had the greatest effect on dispersal metrics. In Chapter 4, I used a dynamic landscape simulation model combined with a model of land transformation to extend my IBM to investigate how 100 years of land use and climate change might affect marten populations. In Chapter 5, I demonstrate how behavioral barriers to mating among reintroduced martens from different source populations may be driving declines in genetic diversity in the region. Ultimately, this work shows how tools such as IBMs and population genetics can be used to address real-world conservation problems when experimental field methods are limited by factors such as time, cost, and scarcity. At the same time, these applications can be used to ask important questions of theoretical ecology, ultimately serving both pragmatic and paradigmatic purposes

Climate change\u27s impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services. © The Ecological Society of America

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand‐to‐biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand‐level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate‐induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought‐tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134257/1/gcb13160_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134257/2/gcb13160.pd

Adaptation strategies and approaches for forested watersheds

Intentional climate adaptation planning for ecosystems has become a necessary part of the job for natural resource managers and natural resource professionals in this era of non-stationarity. One of the major challenges in adapting ecosystems to climate change is in the translation of broad adaptation concepts to specific, tangible actions. Addressing management goals and values while considering the long-term risks associated with local climate change can make forested watershed management plans more robust to uncertainty and changing conditions. We provide a menu of tiered adaptation strategies, which we developed with a focus on forests of the Midwest and Northeastern U.S., as part of a flexible framework to support the integration of climate change considerations into forested watershed management and conservation activities. This menu encapsulates ideas from the literature into statements that signify climate adaptation intention and provide examples of associated tactics to help ground the concepts in specific actions. Finally, we describe two demonstration projects, shared through the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science’s Climate Change Response Framework, that have used this Forested Watershed Adaptation Menu and Adaptation Workbook in project-level planning

Considering Vermont\u27s Future in a Changing Climate: The First Vermont Climate Assessment

The Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA) paints a vivid picture of a changing climate in Vermont and calls for immediate strategic planning to sustain the social, economic and environmental fabric of our state. The VCA is the first state-scale climate assessment in the country and speaks directly to the impacts of climate change as they pertain to our rural towns, cities and communities, including impacts on Vermont tourism and recreation, agriculture, natural resources and energy

Black walnut plantations in West Virginia: Maximizing financial returns through decision modeling and cash flow analysis

The purpose of this study was to identify the management strategies that lead to maximum financial returns from a black walnut plantation. To evaluate a selection of plantation establishment scenarios, thinning treatments, and product objectives, an Excel-based black walnut financial model was updated and revised. Key updates to the model included incorporating three cash flows for 1) the collection and wholesale of black walnut sap, 2) producing black walnut syrup, and 3) leasing black walnut trees for tapping. Additionally, outputs from the Forest Vegetation Simulator were integrated into the model’s growth and yield projections as a means of more accurately projecting sawtimber, nut, and sap yields over a 70-year period. Financial criteria including Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Income (EAI), Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were calculated for a range of scenarios; NPV and IRR were used to rank each scenario. A discounted cash flow analysis was then performed, as well as sensitivity analyses to determine the impact of receiving cost-share funds, increasing plantation acreage and stumpage value, and adjusting the discount rate. Of the scenarios examined, NPV ranking indicated that the highest net returns are achieved by planting on 8 x 8 foot spacing without thinning, and gaining revenue through timber sales, nut harvesting, and leasing taps. The greatest losses were seen when planting on 8 x 8 foot spacing without thinning, but pursuing revenue through nut harvesting and wholesaling collected sap

Five anthropogenic factors that will radically alter forest conditions and management needs in the Northern United States

The Northern United States includes the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. With 70 million ha of forestland and 124 million people, it is the most densely forested (42% of land area) and most densely populated (74 people/km2) quadrant of the United States. Three recent, large-scale, multiresource assessments of forest conditions provide insight about trends and issues in the North, and collectively these and other supporting documents highlight factors that will be extraordinarily influential in large-scale northern forest management needs over the next 50 years. This review article discusses five of those factors: (1) northern forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old without management interventions or natural disturbances, (2) the area of forestland in the North will decrease as a consequence of expanding urban areas, (3) invasive species will alter forest density, diversity, and function, (4) management intensity for timber is low in northern forests and likely to remain so, and (5) management for nontimber objectives will gain relevance but will be challenging to implement. Suggested actions to address these factors include the following: develop quantifiable state and regional goals for forest diversity, understand the spatial and structural impacts of urban expansion on forests, develop symbiotic relationships among forest owners, forest managers, forest industry and the other stakeholders to support contemporary conservation goals, and work to understand the many dimensions of forest change. In the next several decades, climate change seems unlikely to overwhelm or negate any of the five factors discussed in this article; rather it will add another complicating dimension.Natural Resource Ecology and Managemen