A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

One of the most important issues in modem volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database design), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reservedThis research has been partially funded by the European Commission (FP7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO) and the MINECO grant CGL2011-16144-E.Peer Reviewe

Simulations and parameterisation of volcanic plumes observed in La Réunion Island, Piton de la Fournaise

Le Piton de la Fournaise est un volcan situé sur l'Ile de la Réunion, dans l'Océan Indien, à 2600 m d'altitude. Avec une éruption tous les huit mois en moyenne, le Piton de la Fournaise est un des volcans les plus actifs du monde. Les débris volcaniques, un mélange de téphra et de gaz sont connus pour avoir un impact considérable sur l'atmosphère et la santé humaine. La pollution acide créée par les éruptions peut être transportée par les vents sur de grandes distances. Les incertitudes dans la modélisation de tels transports exigent des améliorations continues des techniques de modélisation. Cette étude est un premier pas vers le développement d'un nouveau système d'alerte à la pollution par les émissions volcaniques avec une première application sur le Piton de la Fournaise. Un facteur critique pour le succès de la surveillance et de la prévision de la dispersion des cendres et des gaz volcaniques repose sur une identification correcte de la hauteur atteinte par les nuages éruptifs. L'objectif de cette étude est de paramétriser la convection atmosphérique induite par le volcan dans un modèle méso-échelle (1 km de résolution) initialisé par des sources de chaleur prescrites en surface. Le choix a été fait de modifier un schéma de convection peu profonde utilisé dans le modèle méso-échelle Méso-NH. Cette paramétrisation est validée par une simulation LES considérée comme une référence. Cet objectif initial atteint, le schéma modifié est testé dans la version tri-dimensionnelle du modèle sur un cas réel.Piton de la Fournaise a volcano of altitude 2600 m a.s.l is located in Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. With an average of on eruption every eight months, it's amongst one of the world's most active volcano. Volcanic ejecta, a mixture of tephra and gases are known to have considerable impact on the safety of air traffic and on human health. Acidic pollution created by the eruptions can be transported by wind over large distances. Uncertainties in modelling such transport demands continuous improvements in modelling techniques. This study aims to take a first step toward the development of a new volcano emissions alert notification system with a first application on the Piton de La Fournaise volcano. A critical factor in successfully monitoring and forecasting the dispersion of volcanic ash and gases relies on a correct identification of the height reached by eruption clouds. The objective of this study is to parameterise a volcanic convection in a mesoscale model (1 km resolution) initialised by heat sources prescribed at the ground. This is achieved by modifying a current shallow convection scheme used in a mesoscale model, Meso-NH. This modified parameterisation is validated by LES simulation considered as a reference. Having fulfilled the primary objective of this study, the modified scheme is tested as a first application in a 3D real-case environment

Disaster management and its economic implications

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, aktuelle Forschungsschwerpunkte im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements in der Operational Research Literatur aufzuzeigen. Katastrophenmanagement umfasst in diesem Zusammenhang einerseits Naturkatastrophen wie geophysikalische und hydro-meteorologische Katastrophen, technologische Katastrophen wie industrielle Unfälle, Transportunfälle und sonstige Unfälle, und andererseits die verschiedenen Formen des Terrorismus, allgemeinen Terrorismus sowie Bioterrorismus. Da die Anzahl und das Ausmaß von Katastrophen immer weiter zunehmen ist auch eine immer größere Notwendigkeit für die Entwicklung, den Einsatz und die wirtschaftliche Beurteilung der jeweiligen Strategien gegeben. Der erste Teil dieser Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über die Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements und umfasst Simulation, Katastrophenmanagement in Krankenhäusern und die Rolle von Versicherungen im Katastrophenmanagementprozess. Im zweiten Teil wird eine Taxonomie entwickelt, deren Kategorien auf den Modellen und Ergebnissen der Literatur beruhen. Einerseits werden allgemeine Modelleigenschaften wie die Ebene im Katastrophenmanagementprozess, der Modelltyp und die Anwendungsgebiete der Modelle untersucht. Andererseits stellen die Art der Intervention und die Anwendbarkeit für die unterschiedlichen Katastrophenklassen weitere Kategorien der Taxonomie dar. Es wurden 90 Artikel, die beispielhaft für die Forschungsrichtungen im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements der letzten 25 Jahre stehen, ausgewählt, und entsprechend den jeweiligen Kategorien der Taxonomie zugeordnet. Das Hauptaugenmerk der Taxonomie liegt auf der wirtschaftlichen Analyse, die wirksamkeitsbezogene, ressourcenbezogene und kostenbezogene Parameter umfasst. Es wird gezeigt ob und welche wirtschaftliche Analyse wie beispielsweise die Kosten-Nutzwert- Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse angewendet wird um die in den Artikeln beschriebenen Interventionen zu evaluieren. Es wird gezeigt, dass erhebliche Verbesserungen für die verschiedenen Katastrophentypen und in den verschiedenen Situationen erzielt werden können. Eingeschränkte Datenverfügbarkeit schränkt in vielen Fällen die Einsetzbarkeit der Modelle in realen Situationen ein. Im Allgemeinen ist erkennbar, dass Kooperation und Koordination zwischen den beteiligten Einheiten ausschlaggebend für den zeitgerechten und effizienten Einsatz der knappen Ressourcen sind. Oftmals erzielt der gemeinsame Einsatz mehrerer Maßnahme ein deutlich besseres Ergebnis als der Einsatz von lediglich einem einzigen Instrument. Die Taxonomie unterstreicht dass trotz der großen Fülle an Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements nur wenige Autoren auf die Kosten-Nutzwert-Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse als Hilfsmittel zur wirtschaftlichen Analyse zurückgreifen. In Zukunft, um Interventionen erfolgreich evaluieren zu können oder die beste aus mehreren Interventionen bestimmen zu können wird es immer wichtiger werden, diese Art von wirtschaftlichen Analysen anzuwenden.This thesis intends to demonstrate current research directions in the field of disaster management in the Operational Research literature. Disaster management in this context comprises the management of natural, such as geophysical and hydro-meteorological, and technological disasters, such as industrial accidents, transportation accidents, and miscellaneous accidents, as well as the management of the different terrorism forms, general terrorism and bioterrorism. As the occurrence of disasters is getting more and more frequent and the accumulated loss of these events is getting higher and higher, there is a strong need for the development, implication and economic evaluation of strategies to counter these disasters. In the first part of the thesis, a general overview of the literature is given, including a focus on simulation, disaster management in hospitals, and the role of insurances in the disaster management process. The second part encompasses the taxonomy which focuses on models and outcomes presented in the literature. As a result of the review of the literature, appropriate categories for the disaster management taxonomy are derived. On the one hand, an overview of general model features, i.e., the level of disaster management, model type and methods of application is given. On the other hand, the type of intervention used and the practicability for different disaster types are discussed. 90 papers, illustrative main examples of the research directions of the last 25 years, were selected for deeper investigation and classified according to the main criteria analyzed in the articles. The main focus of the taxonomy lies on the economic analysis, which encompasses effectiveness-related, resource-related, and cost-related parameters and shows the type of economic analysis used in the literature. We analyze whether economic analysis, i.e., costutility, cost-effectiveness, and cost-benefit are used to investigate different interventions and what type of analysis has been chosen by the authors. Policy implications and results show that considerable improvements can be achieved for different disastrous events and in different situations. Limited data availability constrains the outcomes of the models and their applicability to real-world situations. In general, cooperation and coordination of the entities involved are crucial to guarantee timely and efficient assignment of scarce resources. Furthermore, different authors confirm that a combination of various measures often achieves a better outcome than if tools are used autonomously. The taxonomy has underlined that although there exists a vast disaster management literature dealing with various problems related to mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery from disasters, there are only a few authors evaluating the actions taken through economic analyses such cost-utility, cost-effectiveness, or cost-benefit analysis. In the future, to be able to evaluate interventions, or to figure out the most effective intervention among several interventions, it is crucial to stronger rely on the abovementioned economic analyses

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Challenges in Developing DDDAS based Methodology for Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis – Effect of Numerical Weather Prediction Variability and Parameter Estimation

AbstractIn this paper, we will present ongoing work on using a dynamic data driven application system (DDDAS) based approach to the forecast of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. Our primary modeling tool will be a new code puffin formed by the combination of a plume eruption model Bent and the ash transport model Puff. Data from satellite imagery, observation of vent parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use ensemble based uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation methodology – polynomial chaos quadrature in combination with data integration to complete the DDDAS loop