Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Egg: a Time-Series Analysis of Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Hong Kong

This paper examines how the rule of law and democratic accountability have affected Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate in the past 20 years. We find that democratic accountability has deteriorated substantially since the changeover of sovereignty in 1997, while the rule of law has remained strong and stable. Empirical results from ARDL bounds tests show a strong positive long-run relationship between growth and democratic accountability, and Granger causality tests reveal that democratic accountability causes the growth rate of GDP in the short run. These conclusions are robust to controlling for the effects of investment and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Our results suggest that the deterioration in democratic accountability following the handover in 1997 has come at the expense of a considerable decline in economic growth, and controverts popular arguments in Hong Kong that improving democratic accountability will harm economic growth.Institutions, growth, democratic accountability, rule of law, Hong Kong

Cracking the Corruption Code: The Case of Afghanistan

This paper is about a very complicated and multifaceted issue of corruption. The main purpose of this paper is to find the impact of development indicators which are political stability and violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability on the control of corruption in Afghanistan. Furthermore we are interested to know the direction of causality among these variables. The data is analyzed through ordinary least square regression method. Johansen test is applied for cointegration and to find the causality we have applied the Granger causality test. Political Stability and violence, government effectiveness and voice and accountability have shown very strong results and can have higher impact. Policy recommendations are made at the end of the paper

The measurement of training opportunities course outcomes: an effective policy tool?

Training Opportunities is an active labour market policy initiative, and part of a response to the entrenched problems of unemployment in Aotearoa New Zealand. The funding and implementation of Training Opportunities are determined in part by a particular system for measuring course outcomes. This paper argues that this measuring system should not be used for policy development, due to measurement errors and problems assigning causality to the intervention. Consequently, various disincentives arise that contradict the objectives of Training Opportunities. While accountability is important, the over-reliance on the narrowly defined Training Opportunities outcomes undermines the ability of providers to assist the unemployed, and thereby contribute to the policy goals of reducing unemployment and labour market disadvantage in New Zealand

Governance and Economic Development in West Africa: Linking Governance with Economic Misery

In this study, we explored how governance could influence economic misery. Consideration is made of 16 West African countries from 2005 through 2020. The governance indicators used in the study include voice and accountability; political stability and absence of violence/terrorism; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; the rule of law; and control of corruption. Barro's misery index was computed and used in this study. The analysis used the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed and random effect models, and the Granger causality test. The Granger causality test indicated that unidirectional causality runs from government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, and regulatory quality to economic misery. For the pooled OLS, only voice and accountability aided in reducing economic pain in a significant manner, while the rule of law aggravated financial distress. In the Fixed effect model, none of the governance indicators could significantly influence economic misery, while in the Random effect model, voice and accountability with regulatory quality significantly reduced financial discomfort. Government effectiveness has not in any way exerted a significant influence on economic misery within the study period. Other variables that substantially influenced economic distress within West Africa were trade liberalisation and credit to the private sector, as they both significantly reduced economic misery. The weak governance indicators show poor institutional quality intensifies economic pain within the West African region

Dimensions of Accountability in Inter-organizational Business Processes

Inter-organizational business processes are the basis of a globalized, highly dynamic, and digitalized world, en-abling faster and cost-effective transactions. At the same time, they raise business vulnerabilities. A partic-ular vulnerability is linked to the substantiation of trust between actors in dynamic business relationships, as trust affects interdependencies and complexity. An ap-proach to address this vulnerability is the introduction of accountability mechanisms. Extant research suggests that accountability enables revealing causality and a transparent allocation of responsibilities for each pro-cess step. Thereby, corresponding actors can judge upon misbehavior and verify trust claims. Unfortu-nately, a thorough understanding of accountability and its dimensions accountability in the context of IBP is still missing. To address this gap, we develop a framework with dimensions of accountability. We demonstrate the resulting framework in an industrial supply chain case and derive implications for theory and practice

Counterfactual Causality from First Principles?

In this position paper we discuss three main shortcomings of existing approaches to counterfactual causality from the computer science perspective, and sketch lines of work to try and overcome these issues: (1) causality definitions should be driven by a set of precisely specified requirements rather than specific examples; (2) causality frameworks should support system dynamics; (3) causality analysis should have a well-understood behavior in presence of abstraction.Comment: In Proceedings CREST 2017, arXiv:1710.0277

Institutional quality and foreign direct investment inflows : evidence from cross-country data with policy implication

Purpose: The study examines the impact of institutional quality on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for emerging economies from South Asiain the period 2002-2016. Other economic factors such as globalisation, financial development, and GDP are also considered. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study uses Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) panel unit root test to check stationarity property. It uses cross dependency (CD) and cross-sectional augments IPS tests to check cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across the group countries. Next, it uses panel ARDL-PMG tests to check the existence of long-relationship among variables. Then, we apply the panel Granger causality test to check the direction of causality. Finally, for the robustness of results, we use the Pedroni co-integration technique. Findings: The study finds the existence of a long-run relationship between institutional quality and FDI inflows. Other economic factors such as globalization and financial development show long-run and strong causality with FDI inflows. However, the short-run unidirectional causality from institutional quality to FDI inflows is not found for all the countries. Finally, institutional quality strongly causes FDI inflows provided paired with either globalisation or financial development. Practical Implications: Institutional quality increases the FDI inflows. Therefore, policymakers should focus on institutional quality along with globalization and financial development for higher inflows of FDI in emerging countries. Originality/Value: The study considers institutional quality as one of the inputs for FDI inflows in selected emerging economies from South Asia. Further, it creates an institutional quality index for the emerging countries to examine the impact on FDI inflows.peer-reviewe