Prediction of rainfall intensity measurement errors using commercial microwave communication links

Commercial microwave radio links forming cellular communication networks are known to be a valuable instrument for measuring near-surface rainfall. However, operational communication links are more uncertain relatively to the dedicated installations since their geometry and frequencies are optimized for high communication performance rather than observing rainfall. Quantification of the uncertainties for measurements that are non-optimal in the first place is essential to assure usability of the data. <br><br> In this work we address modeling of instrumental impairments, i.e. signal variability due to antenna wetting, baseline attenuation uncertainty and digital quantization, as well as environmental ones, i.e. variability of drop size distribution along a link affecting accuracy of path-averaged rainfall measurement and spatial variability of rainfall in the link's neighborhood affecting the accuracy of rainfall estimation out of the link path. Expressions for root mean squared error (RMSE) for estimates of path-averaged and point rainfall have been derived. To verify the RMSE expressions quantitatively, path-averaged measurements from 21 operational communication links in 12 different locations have been compared to records of five nearby rain gauges over three rainstorm events. <br><br> The experiments show that the prediction accuracy is above 90% for temporal accumulation less than 30 min and lowers for longer accumulation intervals. Spatial variability in the vicinity of the link, baseline attenuation uncertainty and, possibly, suboptimality of wet antenna attenuation model are the major sources of link-gauge discrepancies. In addition, the dependence of the optimal coefficients of a conventional wet antenna attenuation model on spatial rainfall variability and, accordingly, link length has been shown. <br><br> The expressions for RMSE of the path-averaged rainfall estimates can be useful for integration of measurements from multiple heterogeneous links into data assimilation algorithms

Evaluation of error components in rainfall retrieval from collocated commercial microwave links

Opportunistic rainfall sensing using commercial microwave links (CMLs) operating in telecommunication networks has the potential to complement conventional rainfall monitoring, however, the diversity of sensors and their errors are difficult to handle. This analysis empirically evaluates errors of CML observations that manifest discrepancies between collocated sensors without reference rainfall measurements. Collocated CMLs are evaluated as independent rainfall sensors, which enable us to assess the effect of hardware homogeneity and measurement consistency using CML observations at twelve sites within a real telecommunication network in Prague. The evaluation considers 33 rainfall events distinguishing between stratiform and convective rainfall type in the period 2014 and 2016, monitored in 1-min temporal resolution. Collocated CMLs of identical and different frequencies are evaluated, and different rainfall types are discussed. The collocated commercial microwave links are in excellent agreement. The inherent error of rain-induced attenuation for paired independent commercial microwave links is 0.4 dB. The high correlation of the rainfall intensity measurements between the collocated sensors was obtained in a range between 0.96 and 0.99, and the root mean square error ranges between 0.4 mm h&minus;1 and 1.7 mm h&minus;1. This confirms homogeneous behaviour of the hardware in a real network. Therefore, the data of CMLs of the same characteristics can be processed with identi-cal parameters for rainfall retrieval models.</p

On the Quasi-Moment-Method as a Rain Attenuation Prediction Modeling Algorithm

A computationally inexpensive, analytically simple, and remarkably efficient rain attenuation prediction algorithm is presented in this paper. The algorithm, here referred to as the Quasi-Moment-Method, has only two main requirements for its implementation. First, rain attenuation measurement data for bit terrestrial or slant paths for the site of interest must be available; and second, a model referred to as the base model, known to have predicted attenuation for any site to a reasonable level of accuracy and whose analytical format can be expressed as a linear combination of its parameters, is also required. An important novelty introduced by the QMM algorithm is a normalization scheme, through which a modelling difficulty concerning exceedance probabilities outside a 1 percent and 100 percent is eliminated. Model validation and performance evaluation using a comprehensive set of data available from the literature clearly demonstrated that the QMM models consistently improved base model performance by more than 90 percent and outperformed all published best fit models with which they were compared.Comment: 12 pages, 36 references, 5 figures, Journal Publicatio

Rainfall over the Netherlands & beyond: a remote sensing perspective

Earthlings like to measure everything (especially now that we are undergoing the era of big-data revolution) maybe because it is such a nice hobby... although a more serious school of thought believes that when measuring our environment we get to understand physics and ourselves. This thesis explores the uncertainties in rainfall measurements from state-of-the-art technologies like commercial microwave links (CML) and meteorological satellites. Rainfall has been measured by rain gauges since quite some time ago; and by weather radars since the end of WWII. Here we evaluate the performance of gridded-rainfall products for the land surface of the Netherlands. These gridded-rainfall products are CML-rainfall maps produced by the Royal Netherlands Meteorology Institute (KNMI), and the IMERG product developed by Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM). Overall, this thesis shows that CML-rainfall products are very reliable sources with regards to rainfall estimates for the land surface of the Netherlands... even better than the satellite products for rainfall estimation. We are also confident in the promising potential these technologies hold for places around the world where conventional technologies like gauges or radars are not scarce or not affordable. </p

Introducing an effect of climate change into globals models of rain fade on telecommunications links

Rain attenuation limits the performance of microwave telecommunication links functioning above approximately 5 GHz. Recent studies have revealed that over the last twenty years the occurrence of rain, at intensities that cause outage on terrestrial links, has experienced a strongly increasing trend in the UK. Globally, the height of rain events has also been observed to increase, which may compound increasing trends in rain fade experienced by Earth-Space communication systems. These climatic changes are almost certainly having significant effect on the performance of existing radio systems, and need to be taken into consideration when planning future systems. The International Telecommunication Union – Radio Section (ITU-R), maintains a set of internationally accepted models for the engineering and regulation of radio systems globally. Although under constant revision, these models assume that atmospheric fading is stationary. This assumption is inherent in the way models are tested.In this project, a method is developed to estimate global trends in one of the most fundamental parameters to the ITU-R models: the one-minute rain rate exceeded for 0.01% of an average year. This method introduces climate change into the ITU-R model of this parameter: Rec. ITU-R P.837. The new model is tested using a method that does not make a stationary climate assumption. Salonen-Poiares Baptista distribution, which is the fundamental method for developing ITU-R Rec. P.837 has been tested using UK Environment Agency data, but no correlations was found between measured annual accumulations and distribution parameters. Nonetheless a link was found between mean annual total precipitations (MT) and rain exceeded at larger time percentages such as; 0.1% and 1%

Opportunistic rain rate estimation from measurements of satellite downlink attenuation: A survey

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in techniques and systems for rainfall surveillance on regional scale, with increasingly stringent requirements in terms of the following: (i) accuracy of rainfall rate measurements, (ii) adequate density of sensors over the territory, (iii) space‐time continuity and completeness of data and (iv) capability to elaborate rainfall maps in near real time. The devices deployed to monitor the precipitation fields are traditionally networks of rain gauges distributed throughout the territory, along with weather radars and satellite remote sensors operating in the optical or infrared band, none of which, however, are suitable for full compliance to all of the requirements cited above. More recently, a different approach to rain rate estimation techniques has been proposed and investigated, based on the measurement of the attenuation induced by rain on signals of pre‐existing radio networks either in terrestrial links, e.g., the backhaul connections in cellular networks, or in satellite‐to‐earth links and, among the latter, notably those between geostationary broadcast satellites and domestic subscriber terminals in the Ku and Ka bands. Knowledge of the above rain‐induced attenuation permits the retrieval of the corresponding rain intensity provided that a number of meteorological and geometric parameters are known and ultimately permits estimating the rain rate locally at the receiver site. In this survey paper, we specifically focus on such a type of “opportunistic” systems for rain field monitoring, which appear very promising in view of the wide diffusion over the territory of low‐cost domestic terminals for the reception of satellite signals, prospectively allowing for a considerable geographical capillarity in the distribution of sensors, at least in more densely populated areas. The purpose of the paper is to present a broad albeit synthetic overview of the numerous issues inherent in the above rain monitoring approach, along with a number of solutions and algorithms proposed in the literature in recent years, and ultimately to provide an exhaustive account of the current state of the art. Initially, the main relevant aspects of the satellite link are reviewed, including those related to satellite dynamics, frequency bands, signal formats, propagation channel and radio link geometry, all of which have a role in rainfall rate estimation algorithms. We discuss the impact of all these factors on rain estimation accuracy while also highlighting the substantial differences inherent in this approach in comparison with traditional rain monitoring techniques. We also review the basic formulas relating rain rate intensity to a variation of the received signal level or of the signal‐to-noise ratio. Furthermore, we present a comprehensive literature survey of the main research issues for the aforementioned scenario and provide a brief outline of the algorithms proposed for their solution, highlighting their points of strength and weakness. The paper includes an extensive list of bibliographic references from which the material presented herein was taken

Commercial Microwave Links as opportunistic sensors for precipitation in northern Italy: building and validating an operational monitoring network

There is a growing interest in emerging opportunistic sensors for precipitation, motivated by the need to improve its quantitative estimates at the ground. The scopes of this work are to discuss the effort of building a CML-based opportunistic sensing framework from scratch and to present preliminary assessment of the accuracy of CMLs retrieved rainfall rates in Northern Italy. The CML product, obtained by the open-source RAINLINK software package, is evaluated on different scales against the precipitation products operationally used at the Regional Weather Service of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). The results of the 15 min single-link validation with close-by rain gauges show high variability, which can be caused by the complex area physiography and precipitation patterns. Known sources of errors are particularly hard to mitigate in these conditions without a specific calibration, which has not been implemented. However, hourly cumulated spatially interpolated CML rainfall maps, validated with respect to the established regional gauge-based reference, show similar performance (R2 of 0.46 and CV of 0.78) to adjusted radar-based precipitation gridded products and better than satellite- ones. Performance improves when basin-scale total precipitation amounts are considered (R2 of 0.83 and CV of 0.48). Avoiding regional-specific calibration therefore does not preclude the algorithm from working but has some limitations in POD and accuracy. A widespread underestimation is evident at both grid box (Mean Error of -0.26) and basin-scale (Multiplicative Bias of 0.7), while the number of false alarms is generally low and gets even lower as link coverage increases. Taking into account also delays in the availability of the data (latency of 0.33 hours for CML against 1 hour for the adjusted radar and 24h for the quality-controlled rain gauges), CML appears as a valuable data source in particular from a local operational framework perspective

Atmospheric remote sensing and radiopropagation: from numerical modeling to spaceborne and terrestrial applications

The remote sensing of electromagnetic wave properties is probably the most viable and fascinating way to observe and study physical media, comprising our planet and its atmosphere, at the same time ensuring a proper continuity in the observations. Applications are manifold and the scientific community has been importantly studying and investing on new technologies, which would let us widen our knowledge of what surrounds us. This thesis aims at showing some novel techniques and corresponding applications in the field of the atmospheric remote sensing and radio-propagation, at both microwave and optical wavelengths. The novel Sun-tracking microwave radiometry technique is shown. The antenna noise temperature of a ground-based microwave radiometer is measured by alternately pointing toward-the-Sun and off-the-Sun while tracking it along its diurnal ecliptic. During clear sky the brightness temperature of the Sun disk emission at K and Ka frequency bands and in the under-explored millimeter-wave V and W bands can be estimated by adopting different techniques. Parametric prediction models for retrieving all-weather atmospheric extinction from ground-based microwave radiometers are tested and their accuracy evaluated. Moreover, a characterization of suspended clouds in terms of atmospheric path attenuation is presented, by exploiting a stochastic approach used to model the time evolution of the cloud contribution. A model chain for the prediction of the tropospheric channel for the downlink of interplanetary missions operating above Ku band is proposed. On top of a detailed description of the approach, the chapter presents the validation results and examples of the model-chain online operation. Online operation has already been tested within a feasibility study applied to the BepiColombo mission to Mercury operated by the European Space Agency (ESA) and by exploiting the Hayabusa-2 mission Ka-band data by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), thanks to the ESA cross-support service. A preliminary (and successful) validation of the model-chain has been carried out by comparing the simulated signal-to-noise ratio with the one received from Hayabusa-2. At the next ITU World Radiocommunication Conference 2019, Agenda Item 1.13 will address the identification and the possible additional allocation of radio-frequency spectrum to serve the future development of systems supporting the fifth generation of cellular mobile communications (5G). The potential impact of International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) deployments is shown in terms of received radio frequency interference by ESA’s telecommunication links. Received interference can derive from several radio-propagation mechanisms, which strongly depend on atmospheric conditions, radio frequency, link availability, distance and path topography; at any time a single mechanism, or more than one may be present. Results are shown in terms of required separation distances, i.e. the minimum distance between the earth station and the IMT station ensuring that the protection criteria for the earth station are met

Real-time rain rate evaluation via satellite downlink signal attenuation measurement

We present the NEFOCAST project (named by the contraction of "Nefeleâ", which is the Italian spelling for the mythological cloud nymph Nephele, and "forecast"), funded by the Tuscany Region, about the feasibility of a system for the detection and monitoring of precipitation fields over the regional territory based on the use of a widespread network of new-generation Eutelsat "SmartLNB" (smart low-noise block converter) domestic terminals. Though primarily intended for interactive satellite services, these devices can also be used as weather sensors, as they have the capability of measuring the rain-induced attenuation incurred by the downlink signal and relaying it on an auxiliary return channel. We illustrate the NEFOCAST system architecture, consisting of the network of ground sensor terminals, the space segment, and the service center, which has the task of processing the information relayed by the terminals for generating rain field maps. We discuss a few methods that allow the conversion of a rain attenuation measurement into an instantaneous rainfall rate. Specifically, we discuss an exponential model relating the specific rain attenuation to the rainfall rate, whose coefficients were obtained from extensive experimental data. The above model permits the inferring of the rainfall rate from the total signal attenuation provided by the SmartLNB and from the link geometry knowledge. Some preliminary results obtained from a SmartLNB installed in Pisa are presented and compared with the output of a conventional tipping bucket rain gauge. It is shown that the NEFOCAST sensor is able to track the fast-varying rainfall rate accurately with no delay, as opposed to a conventional gauge