Temporal dynamics in information retrieval

The passage of time is unrelenting. Time is an omnipresent feature of our existence, serving as a context to frame change driven by events and phenomena in our personal lives and social constructs. Accordingly, various elements of time are woven throughout information itself, and information behaviours such as creation, seeking and utilisation. Time plays a central role in many aspects of information retrieval (IR). It can not only distinguish the interpretation of information, but also profoundly influence the intentions and expectations of users' information seeking activity. Many time-based patterns and trends - namely temporal dynamics - are evident in streams of information behaviour by individuals and crowds. A temporal dynamic refers to a periodic regularity, or, a one-off or irregular past, present or future of a particular element (e.g., word, topic or query popularity) - driven by predictable and unpredictable time-based events and phenomena. Several challenges and opportunities related to temporal dynamics are apparent throughout IR. This thesis explores temporal dynamics from the perspective of query popularity and meaning, and word use and relationships over time. More specifically, the thesis posits that temporal dynamics provide tacit meaning and structure of information and information seeking. As such, temporal dynamics are a ‘two-way street’ since they must be supported, but also conversely, can be exploited to improve time-aware IR effectiveness. Real-time temporal dynamics in information seeking must be supported for consistent user satisfaction over time. Uncertainty about what the user expects is a perennial problem for IR systems, further confounded by changes over time. To alleviate this issue, IR systems can: (i) assist the user to submit an effective query (e.g., error-free and descriptive), and (ii) better anticipate what the user is most likely to want in relevance ranking. I first explore methods to help users formulate queries through time-aware query auto-completion, which can suggest both recent and always popular queries. I propose and evaluate novel approaches for time-sensitive query auto-completion, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance of up to 9.2% improvement above the hard baseline. Notably, I find results are reflected across diverse search scenarios in different languages, confirming the pervasive and language agnostic nature of temporal dynamics. Furthermore, I explore the impact of temporal dynamics on the motives behind users' information seeking, and thus how relevance itself is subject to temporal dynamics. I find that temporal dynamics have a dramatic impact on what users expect over time for a considerable proportion of queries. In particular, I find the most likely meaning of ambiguous queries is affected over short and long-term periods (e.g., hours to months) by several periodic and one-off event temporal dynamics. Additionally, I find that for event-driven multi-faceted queries, relevance can often be inferred by modelling the temporal dynamics of changes in related information. In addition to real-time temporal dynamics, previously observed temporal dynamics offer a complementary opportunity as a tacit dimension which can be exploited to inform more effective IR systems. IR approaches are typically based on methods which characterise the nature of information through the statistical distributions of words and phrases. In this thesis I look to model and exploit the temporal dimension of the collection, characterised by temporal dynamics, in these established IR approaches. I explore how the temporal dynamic similarity of word and phrase use in a collection can be exploited to infer temporal semantic relationships between the terms. I propose an approach to uncover a query topic's "chronotype" terms -- that is, its most distinctive and temporally interdependent terms, based on a mix of temporal and non-temporal evidence. I find exploiting chronotype terms in temporal query expansion leads to significantly improved retrieval performance in several time-based collections. Temporal dynamics provide both a challenge and an opportunity for IR systems. Overall, the findings presented in this thesis demonstrate that temporal dynamics can be used to derive tacit structure and meaning of information and information behaviour, which is then valuable for improving IR. Hence, time-aware IR systems which take temporal dynamics into account can better satisfy users consistently by anticipating changing user expectations, and maximising retrieval effectiveness over time

Temporal Information Models for Real-Time Microblog Search

Real-time search in Twitter and other social media services is often biased towards the most recent results due to the “in the moment” nature of topic trends and their ephemeral relevance to users and media in general. However, “in the moment”, it is often difficult to look at all emerging topics and single-out the important ones from the rest of the social media chatter. This thesis proposes to leverage on external sources to estimate the duration and burstiness of live Twitter topics. It extends preliminary research where itwas shown that temporal re-ranking using external sources could indeed improve the accuracy of results. To further explore this topic we pursued three significant novel approaches: (1) multi-source information analysis that explores behavioral dynamics of users, such as Wikipedia live edits and page view streams, to detect topic trends and estimate the topic interest over time; (2) efficient methods for federated query expansion towards the improvement of query meaning; and (3) exploiting multiple sources towards the detection of temporal query intent. It differs from past approaches in the sense that it will work over real-time queries, leveraging on live user-generated content. This approach contrasts with previous methods that require an offline preprocessing step

A Framework for Knowledge Derivation Incorporating Trust and Quality of Data

Today, across all major industries gaining insight from data is seen as an essential part of business. However, while data gathering is becoming inexpensive and relatively easy, analysis and ultimately deriving knowledge from it is increasingly difficult. In many cases, there is the problem of too much data such that important insights are hard to find. The problem is often not lack of data but whether knowledge derived from it is trustworthy. This means distinguishing "good" from "bad" insights based on factors such as context and reputation. Still, modeling trust and quality of data is complex because of the various conditions and relationships in heterogeneous environments. The new TrustKnowOne framework and architecture developed in this dissertation addresses these issues by describing an approach to fully incorporate trust and quality of data with all its aspects into the knowledge derivation process. This is based on Berlin, an abstract graph model we developed that can be used to model various approaches to trustworthiness and relationship assessment as well as decision making processes. In particular, processing, assessment, and evaluation approaches are implemented as graph expressions that are evaluated on graph components modeling the data. We have implemented and applied our framework to three complex scenarios using real data from public data repositories. As part of their evaluation we highlighted how our approach exhibits both the formalization and flexibility necessary to model each of the realistic scenarios. The implementation and evaluation of these scenarios confirms the advantages of the TrustKnowOne framework over current approaches

Grounding event references in news

Events are frequently discussed in natural language, and their accurate identification is central to language understanding. Yet they are diverse and complex in ontology and reference; computational processing hence proves challenging. News provides a shared basis for communication by reporting events. We perform several studies into news event reference. One annotation study characterises each news report in terms of its update and topic events, but finds that topic is better consider through explicit references to background events. In this context, we propose the event linking task which—analogous to named entity linking or disambiguation—models the grounding of references to notable events. It defines the disambiguation of an event reference as a link to the archival article that first reports it. When two references are linked to the same article, they need not be references to the same event. Event linking hopes to provide an intuitive approximation to coreference, erring on the side of over-generation in contrast with the literature. The task is also distinguished in considering event references from multiple perspectives over time. We diagnostically evaluate the task by first linking references to past, newsworthy events in news and opinion pieces to an archive of the Sydney Morning Herald. The intensive annotation results in only a small corpus of 229 distinct links. However, we observe that a number of hyperlinks targeting online news correspond to event links. We thus acquire two large corpora of hyperlinks at very low cost. From these we learn weights for temporal and term overlap features in a retrieval system. These noisy data lead to significant performance gains over a bag-of-words baseline. While our initial system can accurately predict many event links, most will require deep linguistic processing for their disambiguation

Machine learning applications in operations management and digital marketing

In this dissertation, I study how machine learning can be used to solve prominent problems in operations management and digital marketing. The primary motivation is to show that the application of machine learning can solve problems in ways that existing approaches cannot. In its entirety, this dissertation is a study of four problems—two in operations management and two in digital marketing—and develops solutions to these problems via data-driven approaches by leveraging machine learning. These four problems are distinct, and are presented in the form of individual self-containing essays. Each essay is the result of collaborations with industry partners and is of academic and practical importance. In some cases, the solutions presented in this dissertation outperform existing state-of-the-art methods, and in other cases, it presents a solution when no reasonable alternatives are available. The problems are: consumer debt collection (Chapter 3), contact center staffing and scheduling (Chapter 4), digital marketing attribution (Chapter 5), and probabilistic device matching (Chapters 6 and 7). An introduction of the thesis is presented in Chapter 1 and some basic machine learning concepts are described in Chapter 2

Grounding event references in news

Events are frequently discussed in natural language, and their accurate identification is central to language understanding. Yet they are diverse and complex in ontology and reference; computational processing hence proves challenging. News provides a shared basis for communication by reporting events. We perform several studies into news event reference. One annotation study characterises each news report in terms of its update and topic events, but finds that topic is better consider through explicit references to background events. In this context, we propose the event linking task which—analogous to named entity linking or disambiguation—models the grounding of references to notable events. It defines the disambiguation of an event reference as a link to the archival article that first reports it. When two references are linked to the same article, they need not be references to the same event. Event linking hopes to provide an intuitive approximation to coreference, erring on the side of over-generation in contrast with the literature. The task is also distinguished in considering event references from multiple perspectives over time. We diagnostically evaluate the task by first linking references to past, newsworthy events in news and opinion pieces to an archive of the Sydney Morning Herald. The intensive annotation results in only a small corpus of 229 distinct links. However, we observe that a number of hyperlinks targeting online news correspond to event links. We thus acquire two large corpora of hyperlinks at very low cost. From these we learn weights for temporal and term overlap features in a retrieval system. These noisy data lead to significant performance gains over a bag-of-words baseline. While our initial system can accurately predict many event links, most will require deep linguistic processing for their disambiguation