Brand performance volatility from marketing spending

© Copyright 2016, INFORMS. Although volatile marketing spending, as opposed to even-level spending, may improve a brand's financial performance, it can also increase the volatility of performance, which is not a desirable outcome. This article analyzes how revenue and cash-flow volatility are influenced by own and competitive marketing spending volatility, by the level of marketing spending, by the responsiveness to own marketing spending, and by competitive response. From market response theory, we derive propositions about the influence of these variables on revenue and cash-flow volatility. In addition, we extend the Dorfman-Steiner theorem to derive the optimal level and volatility of expenditures if volatility effects are taken into account. Based on a large sample of 99 pharmaceutical brands in four clinical categories and four European countries, we test for the empirical relevance of the propositions and assess the magnitude of the different sources of marketing-induced performance volatility. We find broad support for the predicted volatility effects. Volatility elasticities are significant and may be as large as 1.10 for cash-flow variance with respect to marketing responsiveness. The findings imply that common volatility-increasing marketing practices such as price promotions or volatile advertising plans may be effective at the top line, but they could turn out to be ineffective after all costs are taken into account. Optimal marketing volatility needs to trade off sales effectiveness and extra costs resulting from marketing volatility

Industry Implications of Value Creation and Appropriation Investment Decisions

As managers weigh their resource investment decisions, we argue that these investments have a direct impact on the growth and volatility of the firm’s industry. With data covering 377 industries across 16 years, we investigate relationships for aggregate firm investments on the growth and volatility of industry profit and sales. Results reveal important, complex relationships between investment in value creation and appropriation and different elements of the industry environment

Reference-based transitions in short-run price elasticity

Marketing literature has long recognized that price response need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on reference price type, asymmetric thresholds and sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. In this paper, we introduce smooth transition models to study reference-based price response across 25 fast moving consumer good categories. Our application to 100 brands shows that 77% demonstrate reference-based price response, of which 36% reflects historical reference prices, 31% reflects competitive reference prices, and 33% reflects both types of reference prices. This reference-based price response shows asymmetry for gains versus losses on three levels: the threshold size, the sign and the magnitude of the elasticity difference. For historical reference prices, the threshold size is larger for gains (20%) than for losses (12%) and the assimilation/contrast effects for gains (-0.41) are smaller than the saturation effects for losses (0.81). For competitive reference prices, the threshold size is smaller for gains (3%) than for losses (16%), and the saturation effects are larger for gains (0.33) than for losses (0.15). These results are moderated by both brand and category characteristics that affect reference price accessibility and diagnosticity. Historical reference prices more often play a role for national brands, for planned purchases and in inexpensive categories with low price volatility and high purchase frequency. When price discounting, high-share brands face larger latitudes of acceptance. When raising prices, saturation effects set in later for brands with high price volatility and for categories with high price spread and for planned purchases. As for competitive reference prices, saturation effects set in later for expensive brands with high price volatility and in categories with lower price volatility, higher price spread and higher concentration. Sales, revenue and margin implications are illustrated for price changes typically observed in consumer markets.asymmetric price thresholds;competitive versus historical reference prices;empirical generalizations;kinked demand curve;saturation versus assimilation/contrast effects;smooth-transition regression models

Three paths to brand growth: new product introduction, digital advertising, and crowdfunding

This thesis uses empirical techniques of dynamic modelling to examine three major means for brands to achieve sustainable growth, including new product introduction (NPI), digital advertising, and value co-creation with consumers through digital crowdfunding. Essay 1 (Chapter 2) explores the impact of NPI on the performance volatility of the innovating and the competing brands in the CPG industry. Using a GARCH-in-VAR modelling approach, we find that NPI causes a long-term rise in sales volatility of all brands. Such volatility increase is especially significant for new brand entries, premium-priced and more innovative brands, and retailers with a larger assortment and those where private labels dominate. More importantly, NPI's impact through sales volatility on the sales level of brands is consistently positive. Findings from Essay 1 challenge marketers' conventional wisdom to curb volatility and instead highlight brands' potential to benefit from the market turbulence following an NPI. Essay 2 (Chapter 3) investigates the effect of processing disfluency on consumers' decisions to click on digital display advertisements. With consumers flooded by digital ads, it is imperative for marketers to strike a balance between capturing consumer attention and keeping them unannoyed. A series of lab experiments combined with field data modelling using the Dynamic Factor Model indicate that processing disfluency can elicit consumer interest and desire to explore, leading to a higher willingness to click. Such disfluency does not cause consumer ad annoyance and can be induced by negative ad emotional appeals such as fear and sorrow. Essay 3 (Chapter 4) studies investment dynamics between digital crowdfunding investors, who are also the future consumers of the fundraising venture. Recognizing the co-existence between more and less informed investors, our results show that large investments by informed investors are effective signals that positively influence subsequent investors' behaviours. Such an effect is strengthened by a higher level of social similarity between investors and the size of the deal. Our findings shed light on the asymmetric information flows from more to less informed investors, and the complementarity between different types of investors.Open Acces

Wheatering tight economic times: the sales evolution of consumer durables over the business cycle.

Despite its obvious importance, not much marketing research focuses on how business-cycle fluctuations affect individual companies and/or industries. Often, one only has aggregate information on the state of the national economy, even though cyclical contractions and expansions need not have an equal impact on every industry, nor on all firms in that industry. Using recent time-series developments, we introduce various measures to quantify the extent and nature of business-cycle fluctuations in sales. Specifically, we discuss the notions of cyclical volatility and cyclical comovement, and consider two types of cyclical asymmetry related, respectively, to the relative size of the peaks and troughs and the rate of change in upward versus downward parts of the cycle. In so doing, we examine how consumers adjust their purchasing behavior across different phases of the business cycle. We apply these concepts to a broad set (24) of consumer durables, for which we analyze the cyclical sensitivity in their sales evolution. In that way, we (i) derive a novel set of empirical generalizations, and (ii) test different marketing theory-based hypotheses on the underlying drivers of cyclical sensitivity. Consumer durables are found to be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the general economic activity, as expressed in an average cyclical volatility of more than four times the one in GNP, and an average comovement elasticity in excess of 2. This observation calls for an explicit consideration of cyclical variation in durable sales. Moreover, even though no evidence is found for depth asymmetry, the combined evidence across all durables suggests that asymmetry is present in the speed of up- and downward movements, as durables' sales falls much quicker during contractions than recover during economic expansions. Finally, key variables related to the industry's pricing activities, the nature of the durable (convenience vs. leisure), and the stage in a product's life cycle tend to moderate the extent of cyclical sensitivity in durable sales patterns.Business cycles; Companies; Consumer durables; Econometrics; Economy; Firms; Hypotheses; Industry; Information; Market; Marketing; Pricing; Product; Purchasing; Sales; Sales evolution; Sensitivity; Size; Time; Time-series econometrics; Time series; Variables; Volatility;

Customer habits in a B2B context : impacts on cash flow level and volatility

Hábitos estão presentes em uma grande parte do dia-a-dia das pessoas. À medida que são repetidas ações com resultados satisfatórios em contextos estáveis, as respostas para ações futuras começam a ser ativadas automaticamente na memória de um indivíduo. Com o tempo, as decisões tornam-se menos impulsionadas por objetivos e intenções e, desta forma, um hábito é formado. Medidas empíricas de hábitos baseadas em dados de transações de clientes foram desenvolvidas pela área de marketing e vincularam comportamentos habituais de pessoas na hora da compra e o impacto financeiro nas empresas. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar o impacto de comportamentos habituais no contexto B2B de transações entre fabricantes e varejistas. O responsável por efetuar uma compra em uma empresa pode comparar especificações, preços e avaliar os concorrentes antes de fazer um pedido. No entanto, é praticamente impossível avaliar todos os produtos sempre que for necessária uma compra para reabastecer estoques ou para solicitar um item vendido no catálogo por um vendedor dentro da loja. Portanto, espera-se que com o tempo, uma parte das transações que são realizadas começam a ser conduzidas por comportamentos habituais de alguém envolvido no processo de compra. Esta dissertação propõe medir os hábitos de compra e promoção em um banco de dados de transações e aplicar análises quantitativas para avaliar como os hábitos impactam os níveis de fluxo de caixa e a volatilidade dos mesmos. Uma análise posterior é proposta para comparar como os clientes habituais se relacionam com os clientes mais valiosos da empresa e uma simulação é proposta para analisar o impacto de uma eventual aquisição de clientes. Os resultados mostram que os hábitos mais fortes de compra aumentam os níveis de fluxo de caixa, mas também afetam positivamente a volatilidade do fluxo de caixa. Em contrapartida, os hábitos de promoção, com o passar do tempo, tendem a gerar fluxos de caixa menos voláteis que os hábitos de compra, mas com a desvantagem de diminuir os níveis dos mesmos.Habits are widespread in most of life. As people repeat actions with satisfactory outcomes in stable contexts, responses start to become automatically retrieved in memory. Over time decisions become less driven by goals and intentions, and therefore, a habitual behavior is formed. Empirical measures of habits based on customer transactions data were developed by marketing scholars and have linked habitual behaviors of people when purchasing and their impact on firms’ performance. This dissertation aims to analyze the impact of habitual behaviors in the context of business-to-business transactions with manufacturers and retailers. The responsible for buying in a firm may compare specifications, prices and assess competitors before making a purchase. However, it is unfeasible to evaluate all products every time it is required a purchase to replenish stocks or to order a sold item in a catalog by a sales employee. Therefore, it is expected that over time, a portion of repeat transactions start to be driven by habitual behaviors of someone involved in the process of buying. This dissertation proposes to measure the Purchase and Promotion Habits in a database of transactions and to apply quantitative analyzes to evaluate how habits affect cash flow levels and their volatility. A later analysis is proposed to compare how regular customers relate to the company's most valuable customers and a simulation is proposed to analyze the impact of eventual customer acquisition. The results show that stronger Purchase Habits increase cash flow levels, but also positively affect cash flow volatility. On the other hand, Promotion Habits, over time, tend to generate less volatile cash flows than Purchase Habits, but with the disadvantage of reducing their levels