Predicting Power Consumption of Individual Household using Machine Learning Algorithms

Climate change, as known, is the dangerous environmental effect we are going to face in the near future and electricity contributes the majority of its part in overcoming climate change as per the trends. Usage of electricity is widely increasing all over the world mainly as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels. In households the usage is rapidly increasing day by day, owing to the increase in the number of devices running on electricity. As we have observed mainly after the relaxation of the lockdown the bills received by households, especially in cities were unhappy and have left most of the people aghast. It is evident that users have no idea about the power they consume. In this work, a model to forecast the electricity bill of household users based on the previous trends and usage patterns by making use of machine learning techniques has been proposed. The historical data of the user is studied and the learning is done iteratively to improve the accuracy of the model. The model can then be used to forecast the consumption beforehand

Performance Evaluation Research of Ecological Civilization Policy Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks Model

DOI: 10.7176/JLPG/77-139 Abstract Ecological civilization is a new form of human civilization that solves the contradiction between development and environment. Because the ecological civilization policy system has is complex and nonlinear, this paper combines artificial neural network technology with the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA) method and proposes the hybrid SFA-Artificial Neural Network (SFANN) model to estimate the impact of ecological civilization policy on economic development. The model uses regional eco-efficiency evaluated by SFA as one of the inputs for the neural network; the neural network integrates the total input and output results to provide a quantitative estimate of the ecological civilization policy in different provincial regions from 2003-2016. By training and examining the evaluation results with the SFANN model, this paper tries to predict the impact of 13th Five-Year Total Emission Reduction Policy on economic development. The empirical research results and suggestions can improve the ecological civilization policy performance by negative feedback mechanisms. Keywords: Eco-efficiency; Ecological Civilization Policy; Performance Evaluation; Stochastic Frontier Analysis; Artificial Neural Networ

Performance Evaluation Research of Ecological Civilization Policy Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks Model

DOI: 10.7176/PPAR/8-9-48 Abstract Ecological civilization is a new form of human civilization that solves the contradiction between development and environment. Because the ecological civilization policy system has is complex and nonlinear, this paper combines Artificial Neural Network technology with the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) method and proposes the hybrid DEA-Artificial Neural Network (DEANN) model to estimate the impact of ecological civilization policy on economic development. The model uses regional eco-efficiency evaluated by DEA as one of the inputs for the neural network; the neural network integrates the total input and output results to provide a quantitative estimate of the ecological civilization policy in different provincial regions from 2003-2016. By training and examining the evaluation results with the DEANN model, this paper tries to predict the impact of 13th Five-Year Total Emission Reduction Policy on economic development. The empirical research results and suggestions can improve the ecological civilization policy performance by negative feedback mechanisms. Keywords: Eco-efficiency; Ecological Civilization Policy; Performance Evaluation; Data Envelopment Analysis; Artificial Neural Networ

Multi-directional gated recurrent unit and convolutional neural network for load and energy forecasting: A novel hybridization

Energy operations and schedules are significantly impacted by load and energy forecasting systems. An effective system is a requirement for a sustainable and equitable environment. Additionally, a trustworthy forecasting management system enhances the resilience of power systems by cutting power and load-forecast flaws. However, due to the numerous inherent nonlinear properties of huge and diverse data, the classical statistical methodology cannot appropriately learn this non-linearity in data. Energy systems can appropriately evaluate data and regulate energy consumption because of advanced techniques. In comparison to machine learning, deep learning techniques have lately been used to predict energy consumption as well as to learn long-term dependencies. In this work, a fusion of novel multi-directional gated recurrent unit (MD-GRU) with convolutional neural network (CNN) using global average pooling (GAP) as hybridization is being proposed for load and energy forecasting. The spatial and temporal aspects, along with the high dimensionality of the data, are addressed by employing the capabilities of MD-GRU and CNN integration. The obtained results are compared to baseline algorithms including CNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU). The experimental findings indicate that the proposed approach surpasses conventional approaches in terms of accuracy, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RSME).</p> </abstract&gt

Estimation of the Age and Amount of Brown Rice Plant Hoppers Based on Bionic Electronic Nose Use

The brown rice plant hopper (BRPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the most important insect pests affecting rice and causes serious damage to the yield and quality of rice plants in Asia. This study used bionic electronic nose technology to sample BRPH volatiles, which vary in age and amount. Principal component analysis (PCA), linear discrimination analysis (LDA), probabilistic neural network (PNN), BP neural network (BPNN) and loading analysis (Loadings) techniques were used to analyze the sampling data. The results indicate that the PCA and LDA classification ability is poor, but the LDA classification displays superior performance relative to PCA. When a PNN was used to evaluate the BRPH age and amount, the classification rates of the training set were 100% and 96.67%, respectively, and the classification rates of the test set were 90.67% and 64.67%, respectively. When BPNN was used for the evaluation of the BRPH age and amount, the classification accuracies of the training set were 100% and 48.93%, respectively, and the classification accuracies of the test set were 96.67% and 47.33%, respectively. Loadings for BRPH volatiles indicate that the main elements of BRPHs’ volatiles are sulfur-containing organics, aromatics, sulfur-and chlorine-containing organics and nitrogen oxides, which provide a reference for sensors chosen when exploited in specialized BRPH identification devices. This research proves the feasibility and broad application prospects of bionic electronic noses for BRPH recognition

D-FNN Based Modeling and BP Neural Network Decoupling Control of PVC Stripping Process

PVC stripping process is a kind of complicated industrial process with characteristics of highly nonlinear and time varying. Aiming at the problem of establishing the accurate mathematics model due to the multivariable coupling and big time delay, the dynamic fuzzy neural network (D-FNN) is adopted to establish the PVC stripping process model based on the actual process operation datum. Then, the PVC stripping process is decoupled by the distributed neural network decoupling module to obtain two single-input-single-output (SISO) subsystems (slurry flow to top tower temperature and steam flow to bottom tower temperature). Finally, the PID controller based on BP neural networks is used to control the decoupled PVC stripper system. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed integrated intelligent control method

Learning automata and sigma imperialist competitive algorithm for optimization of single and multi-objective functions

Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) consist of several heuristics which are able to solve optimisation tasks by imitating some aspects of natural evolution. Two widely-used EAs, namely Harmony Search (HS) and Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA), are considered for improving single objective EA and Multi Objective EA (MOEA), respectively. HS is popular because of its speed and ICA has the ability for escaping local optima, which is an important criterion for a MOEA. In contrast, both algorithms have suffered some shortages. The HS algorithm could be trapped in local optima if its parameters are not tuned properly. This shortage causes low convergence rate and high computational time. In ICA, there is big obstacle that impedes ICA from becoming MOEA. ICA cannot be matched with crowded distance method which produces qualitative value for MOEAs, while ICA needs quantitative value to determine power of each solution. This research proposes a learnable EA, named learning automata harmony search (LAHS). The EA employs a learning automata (LA) based approach to ensure that HS parameters are learnable. This research also proposes a new MOEA based on ICA and Sigma method, named Sigma Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (SICA). Sigma method provides a mechanism to measure the solutions power based on their quantity value. The proposed LAHS and SICA algorithms are tested on wellknown single objective and multi objective benchmark, respectively. Both LAHS and MOICA show improvements in convergence rate and computational time in comparison to the well-known single EAs and MOEAs

The integrated framework for analysis of electricity supply chain using an integrated SWOT-fuzzy TOPSIS methodology combined with AHP: The case of Turkey

a b s t r a c t This paper proposes an integrated framework for analysis of an electricity supply chain using an integrated SWOT-fuzzy TOPSIS methodology combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The paper is divided into two main sections. In the first main section, the integrated framework comprising a qualitative framework and a quantitative framework is presented. In the qualitative framework, a general structure and socalled advanced planning framework are developed for an electricity supply chain based on the literature review in supply chain management (SCM). Then, a quantitative Strengths-Weaknesses-OpportunitiesThreats (SWOT) framework is used to formulate a strategy plan based on the elements from the proposed qualitative framework. Since a qualitative SWOT analysis can be insufficient to formulate an action plan, an integrated SWOT-fuzzy TOPSIS methodology combined with AHP is proposed to prioritize the defined SWOT factors and to formulate a strategy plan with top priorities. In the second main section, the integrated framework is illustrated with the case of electricity supply chain in Turkey

Short-Term Load Demand Forecasting For Transnet Port Terminal (Tpt) In East London Using Artificial Neural Network

DissertationThe daily and weekly energy consumption patterns at the Transnet Port Terminal (TPT) in East London varies stochastically. This is as a result of the transient weather patterns that exist at the harbor. It has therefore become imperative to wisely manage this load in order to save electricity costs and for future infrastructure development. Hence the ongoing supply of electricity to port consumers requires an accurate and adequate short-term load forecast (STLF) for quality, quantity, and efficient management. Many researchers have recently proposed Artificial Neural Networks for short-term load prediction. However, most of the studies have not considered the quickly changing weather patterns that exist at the port. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a supervised short-term load prediction using ANN models, and to verify the effectiveness of such predictions by using the real load data from the TPT. The suggested system architecture uses open- loop training with real load and weather information, and then a closed-loop network is used to produce a prediction with the predicted load as its feedback data. Data collection points were set up in the ring network of the port by installing new power measuring meters, and weather data obtained from local meteorology offices in order to build a suitable alternative of localised data management (data base) for saving all data gathered. Hence, profiling of the load in the TPT was done and load forecasting was carried out, leading to improved load management strategies for the harbor terminal. ANN short-term load prediction (STLP) models were developed utilising its own performance to improve precision by essentially implementing a load feedback loop that is less reliant on external data. To ensure that the timeseries data recorded at the port were well modeled, the Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) for load prediction were developed using mean squared error (MSE) as a performance metric. Furthermore, to show the efficacy of the proposed model for STLP, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used with the same data for short-term predictions. The minimum mean squared errors obtained for both NARX and ANFIS models were 0.0010939 and 0.0032 respectively, indicating that the NARX model is more accurate during the forecast of departmental loads. The results of the predictions using the hourly timeseries indicated a close match between the forecasted and actual load demand at the port terminal. The effects of the load forecast could be used as a guide for implementing management plans for internal load, such as the generation of urgent electricity and the programme of implementation for demand-side management policies

Load forecasting on the user‐side by means of computational intelligence algorithms

Nowadays, it would be very difficult to deny the need to prioritize sustainable development through energy efficiency at all consumption levels. In this context, an energy management system (EMS) is a suitable option for continuously improving energy efficiency, particularly on the user side. An EMS is a set of technological tools that manages energy consumption information and allows its analysis. EMS, in combination with information technologies, has given rise to intelligent EMS (iEMS), which, aside from lending support to monitoring and reporting functions as an EMS does, it has the ability to model, forecast, control and diagnose energy consumption in a predictive way. The main objective of an iEMS is to continuously improve energy efficiency (on-line) as automatically as possible. The core of an iEMS is its load modeling forecasting system (LMFS). It takes advantage of historical information on energy consumption and energy-related variables in order to model and forecast load profiles and, if available, generator profiles. These models and forecasts are the main information used for iEMS applications for control and diagnosis. That is why in this thesis we have focused on the study, analysis and development of LMFS on the user side. The fact that the LMFS is applied on the user side to support an iEMS means that specific characteristics are required that in other areas of load forecasting they are not. First of all, the user-side load profiles (LPs) have a higher random behavior than others, as for example, in power system distribution or generation. This makes the modeling and forecasting process more difficult. Second, on the user side --for example an industrial user-- there is a high number and variety of places that can be monitored, modeled and forecasted, as well as their precedence or nature. Thus, on the one hand, an LMFS requires a high degree of autonomy to automatically or autonomously generate the demanded models. And on the other hand, it needs a high level of adaptability in order to be able to model and forecast different types of loads and different types of energies. Therefore, the addressed LMFS are those that do not look only for accuracy, but also adaptability and autonomy. Seeking to achieve these objectives, in this thesis work we have proposed three novel LMFS schemes based on hybrid algorithms from computational intelligence, signal processing and statistical theory. The first of them looked to improve adaptability, keeping in mind the importance of accuracy and autonomy. It was called an evolutionary training algorithm (ETA) and is based on adaptivenetwork-based-fuzzy-inference system (ANFIS) that is trained by a multi-objective genetic algorithm instead of its traditional training algorithm. As a result of this hybrid, the generalization capacity was improved (avoiding overfitting) and an easily adaptable training algorithm for new adaptive networks based on traditional ANFIS was obtained. The second scheme deals with LMF autonomy in order to build models from multiple loads automatically. Similar to the previous proposal, an ANFIS and a MOGA were used. In this case, the MOGA was used to find a near-optimal configuration for the ANFIS instead of training it. The LMFS relies on this configuration to work properly, as well as to maintain accuracy and generalization capabilities. Real data from an industrial scenario were used to test the proposed scheme and the multi-site modeling and self-configuration results were satisfactory. Furthermore, other algorithms were satisfactorily designed and tested for processing raw data in outlier detection and gap padding. The last of the proposed approaches sought to improve accuracy while keeping autonomy and adaptability. It took advantage of dominant patterns (DPs) that have lower time resolution than the target LP, so they are easier to model and forecast. The Hilbert-Huang transform and Hilbert-spectral analysis were used for detecting and selecting the DPs. Those selected were used in a proposed scheme of partial models (PM) based on parallel ANFIS or artificial neural networks (ANN) to extract the information and give it to the main PM. Therefore, LMFS accuracy improved and the user-side LP noising problem was reduced. Additionally, in order to compensate for the added complexity, versions of self-configured sub-LMFS for each PM were used. This point was fundamental since, the better the configuration, the better the accuracy of the model; and subsequently the information provided to the main partial model was that much better. Finally, and to close this thesis, an outlook of trends regarding iEMS and an outline of several hybrid algorithms that are pending study and testing are presented.En el contexto energético actual y particularmente en el lado del usuario, el concepto de sistema de gestión energética (EMS) se presenta como una alternativa apropiada para mejorar continuamente la eficiencia energética. Los EMSs en combinación con las tecnologías informáticas dan origen al concepto de iEMS, que además de soportar las funciones de los EMS, tienen la capacidad de modelar, pronosticar, controlar y supervisar los consumos energéticos. Su principal objetivo es el de realizar una mejora continua, lo más autónoma posible y predictiva de la eficiencia energética. Este tipo de sistemas tienen como núcleo fundamental el sistema de modelado y pronóstico de consumos (Load Modeling and Forecasting System, LMFS). El LMFS está habilitado para pronosticar el comportamiento futuro de cargas y, si es necesario, de generadores. Es sobre estos pronósticos sobre los cuales el iEMS puede realizar sus tareas automáticas y predictivas de optimización y supervisión. Los LMFS en el lado del usuario son el foco de esta tesis. Un LMFS en el lado del usuario, diseñado para soportar un iEMS requiere o demanda ciertas características que en otros contextos no serían tan necesarias. En primera estancia, los perfiles de los usuarios tienen un alto grado de aleatoriedad que los hace más difíciles de pronosticar. Segundo, en el lado del usuario, por ejemplo en la industria, el gran número de puntos a modelar requiere que el LMFS tenga por un lado, un nivel elevado de autonomía para generar de la manera más desatendida posible los modelos. Por otro lado, necesita un nivel elevado de adaptabilidad para que, usando la misma estructura o metodología, pueda modelar diferentes tipos de cargas cuya procedencia pude variar significativamente. Por lo tanto, los sistemas de modelado abordados en esta tesis son aquellos que no solo buscan mejorar la precisión, sino también la adaptabilidad y autonomía. En busca de estos objetivos y soportados principalmente por algoritmos de inteligencia computacional, procesamiento de señales y estadística, hemos propuesto tres algoritmos novedosos para el desarrollo de un LMFS en el lado del usuario. El primero de ellos busca mejorar la adaptabilidad del LMFS manteniendo una buena precisión y capacidad de autonomía. Denominado ETA, consiste del uso de una estructura ANFIS que es entrenada por un algoritmo genético multi objetivo (MOGA). Como resultado de este híbrido, obtenemos un algoritmo con excelentes capacidades de generalización y fácil de adaptar para el entrenamiento y evaluación de nuevas estructuras adaptativas basadas en ANFIS. El segundo de los algoritmos desarrollados aborda la autonomía del LMFS para así poder generar modelos de múltiples cargas. Al igual que en la anterior propuesta usamos un ANFIS y un MOGA, pero esta vez el MOGA en vez de entrenar el ANFIS, se utiliza para encontrar la configuración cuasi-óptima del ANFIS. Encontrar la configuración apropiada de un ANFIS es muy importante para obtener un buen funcionamiento del LMFS en lo que a precisión y generalización respecta. El LMFS propuesto, además de configurar automáticamente el ANFIS, incluyó diversos algoritmos para procesar los datos puros que casi siempre estuvieron contaminados de datos espurios y gaps de información, operando satisfactoriamente en las condiciones de prueba en un escenario real. El tercero y último de los algoritmos buscó mejorar la precisión manteniendo la autonomía y adaptabilidad, aprovechando para ello la existencia de patrones dominantes de más baja resolución temporal que el consumo objetivo, y que son más fáciles de modelar y pronosticar. La metodología desarrollada se basa en la transformada de Hilbert-Huang para detectar y seleccionar tales patrones dominantes. Además, esta metodología define el uso de modelos parciales de los patrones dominantes seleccionados, para mejorar la precisión del LMFS y mitigar el problema de aleatoriedad que afecta a los consumos en el lado del usuario. Adicionalmente, se incorporó el algoritmo de auto configuración que se presentó en la propuesta anterior para hallar la configuración cuasi-óptima de los modelos parciales. Este punto fue crucial puesto que a mejor configuración de los modelos parciales mayor es la mejora en precisión del pronóstico final. Finalmente y para cerrar este trabajo de tesis, se realizó una prospección de las tendencias en cuanto al uso de iEMS y se esbozaron varias propuestas de algoritmos híbridos, cuyo estudio y comprobación se plantea en futuros estudios