Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.Comment: Invited survey paper for Special Issue on The Euler Equations: 250 Years On, in Physica D: Nonlinear phenomen

Invariant Measures for Dissipative Dynamical Systems: Abstract Results and Applications

In this work we study certain invariant measures that can be associated to the time averaged observation of a broad class of dissipative semigroups via the notion of a generalized Banach limit. Consider an arbitrary complete separable metric space $X$ which is acted on by any continuous semigroup $\{S(t)\}_{t \geq 0}$. Suppose that $\S(t)\}_{t \geq 0}$ possesses a global attractor $\mathcal{A}$. We show that, for any generalized Banach limit $\underset{T \rightarrow \infty}{\rm{LIM}}$ and any distribution of initial conditions $\mathfrak{m}_0$, that there exists an invariant probability measure $\mathfrak{m}$, whose support is contained in $\mathcal{A}$, such that $$\int_{X} \phi(x) d\mathfrak{m} (x) = \underset{T\to \infty}{\rm{LIM}} \frac{1}{T}\int_0^T \int_X \phi(S(t) x) d \mathfrak{m}_0(x) d t,$$ for all observables $\phi$ living in a suitable function space of continuous mappings on $X$. This work is based on a functional analytic framework simplifying and generalizing previous works in this direction. In particular our results rely on the novel use of a general but elementary topological observation, valid in any metric space, which concerns the growth of continuous functions in the neighborhood of compact sets. In the case when $\{S(t)\}_{t \geq 0}$ does not possess a compact absorbing set, this lemma allows us to sidestep the use of weak compactness arguments which require the imposition of cumbersome weak continuity conditions and limits the phase space $X$ to the case of a reflexive Banach space. Two examples of concrete dynamical systems where the semigroup is known to be non-compact are examined in detail.Comment: To appear in Communications in Mathematical Physic

Reduction of dimension for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider reduction of dimension for nonlinear dynamical systems. We demonstrate that in some cases, one can reduce a nonlinear system of equations into a single equation for one of the state variables, and this can be useful for computing the solution when using a variety of analytical approaches. In the case where this reduction is possible, we employ differential elimination to obtain the reduced system. While analytical, the approach is algorithmic, and is implemented in symbolic software such as {\sc MAPLE} or {\sc SageMath}. In other cases, the reduction cannot be performed strictly in terms of differential operators, and one obtains integro-differential operators, which may still be useful. In either case, one can use the reduced equation to both approximate solutions for the state variables and perform chaos diagnostics more efficiently than could be done for the original higher-dimensional system, as well as to construct Lyapunov functions which help in the large-time study of the state variables. A number of chaotic and hyperchaotic dynamical systems are used as examples in order to motivate the approach.Comment: 16 pages, no figure