Impacts of fuel consumption taxes on mobility patterns and CO2 emissions using a system dynamic approach

Current transport behaviour leads to increasing congestion of the infrastructure, growing dependence on fossil fuels, increasing energy demand, and growing CO2 emissions. Policies based principally on increasing system speed and in particular car speeds will lead to greater urban sprawl with increases in average trip lengths. Time saved by speed increases are traded for more distance. This trend is not sustainable in the longer term. Transport policies based just on time savings for citizens may not be the basis for our city planning strategy. The same happens with transport cost. With underpriced transport, the market undervalues land use location, which again may lead city to sprawl and could induce greater trip lengths. In this study, the efficiency of a fuel consumption or CO2 tax policy is analysed as a policy to internalise externalities of transport in a fair travel cost. Based on system dynamics theory, an integrated land use and transport model is proposed in order to assess the effects and impacts of such policy in the short, medium and long term. Different scenarios related to clean vehicles are incorporated. This model is applied to three cities Madrid, Vienna and Leeds and compares their results

Impact on the Distribution System due to Plug-In Electric Vehicles and Changes in Electricity Usage

Replacing conventional vehicles by Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) would likely increase electricity demand and put higher stress on the electrical power system. This thesis presents an approach to evaluate the impact on electrical distribution systems (DSs) caused by charging PEVs and load management of heating loads. The approach considers both vehicle usage statistics and demographic data to estimate when PEVs could be charged in different parts of a DS.A case study was performed on a residential and a commercial part of the DS in Gothenburg. Three different control strategies for the charging were investigated, i.e. uncontrolled, loss-optimal and price-optimal strategies. The control strategies would have a significant effect on the timing of the charging, as well as the access of available infrastructure for charging.The results showed that if all vehicles were PEVs and charged uncontrolled, peak demand would increase by between 21 - 35% in the residential area and by between 1-3% in the commercial area. If customers were directly exposed to the spot price at the Nordic day-ahead market and would charge according to the price-optimal control strategy, peak power would increase by 78% for the residential area and 14% for the commercial area. If the charging were controlled according to the loss-optimal control strategy, the charging would be conducted during off-peak hours without increasing peak demand, even if all vehicles were PEVs.By controlling the heating loads in the residential area according to the price-optimal control strategy peak demand would increase by more than 80%, while peak demand would be reduced by almost 10% if the loss-optimal control strategy were applied

Impact on the Distribution System due to Plug-In Electric Vehicles and Changes in Electricity Usage

Replacing conventional vehicles by Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) would likely increase electricity demand and put higher stress on the electrical power system. This thesis presents an approach to evaluate the impact on electrical distribution systems (DSs) caused by charging PEVs and load management of heating loads. The approach considers both vehicle usage statistics and demographic data to estimate when PEVs could be charged in different parts of a DS.A case study was performed on a residential and a commercial part of the DS in Gothenburg. Three different control strategies for the charging were investigated, i.e. uncontrolled, loss-optimal and price-optimal strategies. The control strategies would have a significant effect on the timing of the charging, as well as the access of available infrastructure for charging.The results showed that if all vehicles were PEVs and charged uncontrolled, peak demand would increase by between 21 - 35% in the residential area and by between 1-3% in the commercial area. If customers were directly exposed to the spot price at the Nordic day-ahead market and would charge according to the price-optimal control strategy, peak power would increase by 78% for the residential area and 14% for the commercial area. If the charging were controlled according to the loss-optimal control strategy, the charging would be conducted during off-peak hours without increasing peak demand, even if all vehicles were PEVs.By controlling the heating loads in the residential area according to the price-optimal control strategy peak demand would increase by more than 80%, while peak demand would be reduced by almost 10% if the loss-optimal control strategy were applied

Exploring the future Electric Vehicle market and its impacts with an agent-based spatial integrated framework: A case study of Beijing, China

This paper investigates the potential expansion and impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) market in Beijing, China at the micro level with an agent-based integrated urban model (SelfSim-EV), considering the interactions, feedbacks and dynamics found in the complex urban system. Specifically, a calibrated and validated SelfSim-EV Beijing model was firstly used to simulate how the EV market might expand in the context of urban evolution from 2016 to 2020, based on which the potential impacts of EV market expansion on the environment, power grid system and transportation infrastructures were assessed at the multiple resolutions. The results suggest that 1) the adoption rate of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) increases over the period, whereas the rate of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) almost remains the same; Furthermore, the so-called neighbour effects appear to influence the uptake of BEVs, based on the spatial analyses of the residential locations of BEV owners; 2) the EV market expansion could eventually benefit the environment, as evident from the slight decrease in the amounts of HC, CO and CO2 emissions after 2017; 3) Charging demand accounting for around 4% of total residential electricity demand in 2020 may put slight pressure on the power grid system; 4) the EV market expansion could influence several EV-related transport facilities, including parking lots, refuelling stations, and charging posts at parking lots, in terms of quantity, layout and usage. These results are expected to be useful for different EV-related stakeholders, such as local authorities and manufacturers, to shape polices and invest in technologies and infrastructures for EVs

Impact Assessment of High-Power Domestic EV Charging Proliferation of a Distribution Network

Transport electrification is becoming the mainstream as a means to improve efficiency, performance, andsustainability of transportation systems. Electrical vehicles (EVs) can help to de-carbonise the environment, but a downside isthe technical issues presented to the low-voltage distribution network. To quantify the stochastic nature of transport-affectedelectrification, probabilistic load flow is employed. Monte Carlo-based simulation is applied to accommodate the probabilisticuncertainties associated with variable EV charging patterns. This study considers high-power charging (up to 11 kW) at thedomestic level while monitoring power quality variations (voltage drop, voltage unbalance factor, voltage sag) standards. Thiswork focuses on the Irish and UK, distribution system operator\u27s–transmission system operator\u27s perspectives, as it will help toidentify the likely impacts due to high-EV charger proliferation at household locations. The results indicate that if a 3.68 kWcharger is used at the domestic level, it is possible for 40% of total household consumers to connect EVs directly to thedistribution network without any power quality breaches. Furthermore, the proliferation of EV can be increased up to 100% ifconstrained to the start, and middle portions of the network (relative to the feeder substation transformer). For higher chargercapacities (up to 11 kW), a bottleneck is presented regarding a resultant voltage unbalance factor

Unique Opportunities of Island States to Transition to a Low-Carbon Mobility System

Small islands developing states (SIDS) contribute minuscule proportions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption, but are highly exposed to climate change impacts, in particular to extreme weather events and sea-level rise. However, there is little research on potential decarbonization trajectories unique to SIDS. Here, we argue that insular topology, scale, and economy are distinctive characteristics of SIDS that facilitate overcoming carbon lock-in. We investigate these dimensions for the three islands of Barbados, Fiji, and Mauritius. We find that insular topologies and small scale offer an opportunity for both public transit corridors and rapid electrification of car fleets. The tourism sector enables local decision-makers and investors to experiment with shared mobility and to induce spillover effects by educating tourists about new mobility options. Limited network effects, and the particular economy thus enables to overcome carbon lock-in. We call for targeted investments into SIDS to transition insular mobility systems towards zero carbon in 2040. The decarbonization of SIDS is not only needed as a mitigation effort, but also as a strong signal to the global community underlining that a zero-carbon future is possible.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität Berli

An Event-Based Simulation Framework to Examine the Response of Power Grid to the Charging Demand of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

This paper describes the development of a discrete-event simulation framework that emulates the interactions between the power grid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and examines whether the capacity of the existing power system can meet the PHEV load demand. The probability distribution functions for the arrival time and energy demand of each vehicle are extracted from real-world statistical transportation data. The power grid\u27s limited generation and transmission capacities are considered to be the major constraints. Therefore, vehicles may have to wait to receive any charge. The proposed simulation framework is justified and described in some detail in applying it to two real cases in the United States to determine certain regions\u27 grid potential to support PHEVs. Both Level-1 and -2 charging are considered

Calculating the Maximum Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Distribution Networks with Renewable Energy and V2G

The uptake of electric vehicles and distributed energy generation is adding significant new demand to distribution networks, however it is unknown whether this can be accommodated by existing infrastructure. This paper first presents an Optimisation approach for determining the maximum penetration of electric vehicles that can be accommodated within a distribution network in conjunction with renewable energy and battery storage. An alternative approach, utilising Network Impact Tokens is then introduced, simplifying the original Optimisation approach while providing accurate results. The electric vehicle hosting capacity of the network is then analysed with increasing penetration of solar generation, battery storage and the use of V2G, showing that distributed generation can increase the the electric vehicle capacity by up to 38%