Agent-based modelling and inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding

Flooding continues to cause significant disruption to individuals, organisations and communities in many parts of the world. In terms of the impact on businesses in the United Kingdom (UK), flooding is responsible for the loss of millions of pounds to the economy. As part of a UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funded project on flood risk management, SESAME, research is being carried out with the aim of improving business response to and preparedness for flood events. To achieve this aim, one strand of the research is focused on establishing how agent-based modelling and simulation can be used to evaluate and improve business continuity. This paper reports on the development of the virtual geographic environment (VGE) component of an agent-based model and how this has been combined with inundation prediction to enable the identification of businesses affected by flooding in any urban area of the UK. The VGE has been developed to use layers from Ordnance Survey’s MasterMap, namely the Topography Layer, Integrated Transport Network Layer and Address Layer 2. Coupling the VGE with inundation prediction provides credibility in modelling flood events in any area of the UK. An initial case study is presented focusing on the Lower Don Valley region of Sheffield leading to the identification of businesses impacted by flooding based on a predicted inundation. Further work will focus on the development of agents to model and simulate businesses during and in the aftermath of flood events such that changes in their behaviours can be investigated leading to improved operational response and business continuity

Shocks in coupled socio-ecological systems: what are they and how can we model them?

Coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) are complex systems characterized by self-organization, non-linearities, interactions among heterogeneous elements within each subsystem, and feedbacks across scales and among subsystems. When such a system experiences a shock or a crisis, the consequences are difficult to predict. In this paper we first define what a shock or a crisis means for SES. Depending on where the system boundary is drawn, shocks can be seen as exogenous or endogenous. For example, human intervention in environmental systems could be seen as exogenous, but endogenous in a socio-environmental system. This difference in the origin and nature of shocks has certain consequences for coupled SES and for policies to ameliorate negative consequences of shocks. Having defined shocks, the paper then focuses on modelling challenges when studying shocks in coupled SES. If we are to explore, study and predict the responses of coupled SES to shocks, the models used need to be able to accommodate (exogenous) or produce (endogenous) a shock event. Various modelling choices need to be made. Specifically, the ‘sudden’ aspect of a shock suggests the time period over which an event claimed to be a shock occurred might be ‘quick’. What does that mean for a discrete event model? Turning to magnitude, what degree of change (in a variable or set of variables) is required for the event to be considered a shock? The ‘surprising’ nature of a shock means that none of the agents in the model should expect the shock to happen, but may need rules enabling them to generate behaviour in exceptional circumstances. This requires a certain design of the agents’ decision-making algorithms, their perception of a shock, memory of past events and formation of expectations, and the information available to them during the time the shock occurred

Agent-based modeling and simulation to assess flood preparedness and recovery of manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises

Severe flooding has caused major damage and disruption to households, communities, businesses, and organizations in many parts of the world. In the United Kingdom (UK), flooding has been responsible for significant losses to the economy due to its impact on businesses, 99.9% of which are Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). This paper reports on how agent-based modeling and simulation has been developed and used to assess the effectiveness of a range of physical/structural and social preparedness adaptation measures that can be implemented by manufacturing SMEs to reduce the impact of and expedite recovery from a major flood event. Results indicate the effectiveness of combinations of these adaptation measures in relation to a one in 1000 year flood event that has been modeled and simulated in a key industrial area of the UK which, in addition to having experienced severe flooding, has a high concentration of SMEs

Assessing vulnerability and modelling assistance: using demographic indicators of vulnerability and agent-based modelling to explore emergency flooding relief response

Flooding is a significant concern for much of the UK and is recognised as a primary threat by most local councils. Those in society most often deemed vulnerable: the elderly, poor or sick, for example, often see their level of vulnerability increase during hazard events. A greater knowledge of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within communities is key to understanding how a population may be impacted by a hazard event. Vulnerability indices are regularly used – in conjunction with needs assessments and on-the-ground research – to target service provision and justify resource allocation. Past work on measuring and mapping vulnerability has been limited by a focus on income-related indicators, a lack of consideration of accessibility, and the reliance on proprietary data. The Open Source Vulnerability Index (OSVI) encompasses an extensive range of vulnerability indicators supported by the wider literature and expert validation and provides data at a sufficiently fine resolution that can identify vulnerable populations. Findings of the OSVI demonstrate the potential cascading impact of a flood hazard as it impacts an already vulnerable population: exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, limiting capabilities and restricting accessibility and access to key services. The OSVI feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that explores the capacity of the British Red Cross (BRC) to distribute relief during flood emergencies using strategies based upon the OSVI. A participatory modelling approach was utilised whereby the BRC were included in all aspects of the model development. The major contribution of this work is the novel synthesis of demographics analysis, vulnerability mapping and geospatial simulation. The project contributes to the growing understanding of vulnerability and response management within the NGO sector. It is hoped that the index and model produced will allow responder organisations to run simulations of similar emergency events and adjust strategic response plans accordingly

Analysis of Resilience Situations for Complex Engineered Systems – the Resilience Holon

Improving the resilience of complex engineered and engineering systems (CES) includes planning for complex resilience situations, in which there may be multiple threats, interactions, and disruptions. One challenge in the modeling of CES is the identification of how interactions in a complex situation occur and their combined influence on CES resilience. This article presents a resilience holon that can be used to analyze complex resilience situations. It is made up of 24 elements (defining types of resilience, threats, interactions, and disruptions), which have varying importance to specific situations. Holons can be linked together hierarchically or in a network. An application of the resilience holon to a documented real-world resilience situation, widespread flooding in a city, illustrates its use. Pathways taken by threats and disruptions, as the flood effects cascaded through the city, are shown as connections between holons. The resilience holon could be used to decompose diverse resilience situations involving CES, to identify where critical vulnerability points are and how the whole resilience situation could be improved. The visual nature of the resilience holon could be used in an interactive way, allowing stakeholders to better understand the full resilience picture of CES that they use or operate

Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises, Organizational Resilience Capacity and Flash Floods: Insights from a Literature Review

From a managerial standpoint, sustainability poses numerous challenges for the business community. One of the prominent concerns in the context of organizational sustainability is the impact of climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs), which create discontinuity and damages to business operations. In this respect, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to EWEs, such as flash floods, having disastrous consequences to SMEs that tend to be ill-prepared. Taking into consideration that these negatives effects are also transferred into the local communities in which SMEs are located, it is crucial to create appropriate mechanisms that will enable these enterprises to build relevant capacities and acquire necessary resources in order to deal with relevant disruptive events. With this in mind, this paper attempts to delineate the emerging literature in relation to strategic approaches in dealing with high impact/low probability EWEs. With this analysis, we aim to provide insights for enhancing the robustness of SMEs against such natural hazards through effective resilience and adaptation strategies. The paper reveals that resilience to EWEs is indeed a multifaceted issue posing numerous challenges to SMEs. Taking into account their intrinsic characteristics, there is a need for a holistic management approach that will assist SMEs to safeguard their assets against extreme weather

Coastal management and adaptation: an integrated data-driven approach

Coastal regions are some of the most exposed to environmental hazards, yet the coast is the preferred settlement site for a high percentage of the global population, and most major global cities are located on or near the coast. This research adopts a predominantly anthropocentric approach to the analysis of coastal risk and resilience. This centres on the pervasive hazards of coastal flooding and erosion. Coastal management decision-making practices are shown to be reliant on access to current and accurate information. However, constraints have been imposed on information flows between scientists, policy makers and practitioners, due to a lack of awareness and utilisation of available data sources. This research seeks to tackle this issue in evaluating how innovations in the use of data and analytics can be applied to further the application of science within decision-making processes related to coastal risk adaptation. In achieving this aim a range of research methodologies have been employed and the progression of topics covered mark a shift from themes of risk to resilience. The work focuses on a case study region of East Anglia, UK, benefiting from the input of a partner organisation, responsible for the region’s coasts: Coastal Partnership East. An initial review revealed how data can be utilised effectively within coastal decision-making practices, highlighting scope for application of advanced Big Data techniques to the analysis of coastal datasets. The process of risk evaluation has been examined in detail, and the range of possibilities afforded by open source coastal datasets were revealed. Subsequently, open source coastal terrain and bathymetric, point cloud datasets were identified for 14 sites within the case study area. These were then utilised within a practical application of a geomorphological change detection (GCD) method. This revealed how analysis of high spatial and temporal resolution point cloud data can accurately reveal and quantify physical coastal impacts. Additionally, the research reveals how data innovations can facilitate adaptation through insurance; more specifically how the use of empirical evidence in pricing of coastal flood insurance can result in both communication and distribution of risk. The various strands of knowledge generated throughout this study reveal how an extensive range of data types, sources, and advanced forms of analysis, can together allow coastal resilience assessments to be founded on empirical evidence. This research serves to demonstrate how the application of advanced data-driven analytical processes can reduce levels of uncertainty and subjectivity inherent within current coastal environmental management practices. Adoption of methods presented within this research could further the possibilities for sustainable and resilient management of the incredibly valuable environmental resource which is the coast

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Flood Impacts on Road Transportation

Flood disasters can penetrate every single aspect of human life and road transportation is no exception. However, flood impacts on road transportation is an area that has not been explored in detail in the past. The focus of this PhD study is on the performance assessment of a road network subject to flooding. In this work, several challenges were overcome with original ideas. The first was integrating the flood and the transport systems - both exhibiting strong temporal and spatial variations. This has been successfully achieved by implementing a novel methodology into a tool that modelled flood intensities output into a transport network constraint in a traffic model. The logic of the framework is intuitive – roads with shallow flood depth impose speed limitations, and roads with deep flood depth are closed for traffic. The developed tool enabled a quick and consistent technique to integrate the flood and the transport models in three different ways – static, semi-dynamic and dynamic. The static integration considers only one flood map to determine traffic conditions, whereas the semi-dynamic and the dynamic integrations use multiple maps to mimic the flood propagation in the traffic model. This thesis is the first to achieve semi-dynamic or dynamic integration of the two models. The second challenge was the assessment of the impacts. Intangible impacts such as travel delays propagating as knock-on effects can easily be misrepresented or even misunderstood. Employing a microscopic transport model allows for the assessment of direct effects and the knock-on consequences on individual drivers as well as the whole traffic system. Results in one case study suggest that the average travel time rose with 45% on average for 75% of the vehicles in the most affected hour of the simulation. The monetary value of traffic delays may not be as significant as the flood direct tangible damage, but flood impacts on road transportation may be more straightforward to alleviate if traffic authorities follow contingency plans to reduce traffic demand or mitigate potential interruptions of traffic supply. To analyse how potential interventions affect the transport system performance, three interventions were implemented into the model. The third challenge was the evaluation of the performance of a road transport system and the assessment of its resilience to flooding. Perusing this, a novel rationale to assess the resilience of a transport network has been developed. This method distinguishes reliability from resilience to define the nonlinear bounds of standard dry weather conditions, and any fluctuation beyond these bounds is defined as exceptional conditions. By separating reliability from resilience, the extent of both magnitude and duration is refined and contributes to better understanding of the system performance. This PhD thesis aspires to bridge the gap between flooding and traffic by providing a workable open source tool, which can be applied to other case studies and thus open the potential for further development in that area. As well as practical ideas, the theoretical contribution in assessing system resilience can be applied in other fields.European Commissio