Expert System for Crop Disease based on Graph Pattern Matching: A proposal

Para la agroindustria, las enfermedades en cultivos constituyen uno de los problemas más frecuentes que generan grandes pérdidas económicas y baja calidad en la producción. Por otro lado, desde las ciencias de la computación, han surgido diferentes herramientas cuya finalidad es mejorar la prevención y el tratamiento de estas enfermedades. En este sentido, investigaciones recientes proponen el desarrollo de sistemas expertos para resolver este problema haciendo uso de técnicas de minería de datos e inteligencia artificial, como inferencia basada en reglas, árboles de decisión, redes bayesianas, entre otras. Además, los grafos pueden ser usados para el almacenamiento de los diferentes tipos de variables que se encuentran presentes en un ambiente de cultivos, permitiendo la aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos en grafos, como el emparejamiento de patrones en los mismos. En este artículo presentamos una visión general de las temáticas mencionadas y una propuesta de un sistema experto para enfermedades en cultivos, basado en emparejamiento de patrones en grafos.For agroindustry, crop diseases constitute one of the most common problems that generate large economic losses and low production quality. On the other hand, from computer science, several tools have emerged in order to improve the prevention and treatment of these diseases. In this sense, recent research proposes the development of expert systems to solve this problem, making use of data mining and artificial intelligence techniques like rule-based inference, decision trees, Bayesian network, among others. Furthermore, graphs can be used for storage of different types of variables that are present in an environment of crops, allowing the application of graph data mining techniques like graph pattern matching. Therefore, in this paper we present an overview of the above issues and a proposal of an expert system for crop disease based on graph pattern matching

Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation

It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the hourly global radiation. The knowledge of this quantity is essential for the grid manager or the private PV producer in order to anticipate fluctuations related to clouds occurrences and to stabilize the injected PV power. In this paper, we test both methodologies: single and hybrid predictors. In the first class, we include the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA), and persistence models. In the second class, we mix these predictors with Bayesian rules to obtain ad-hoc models selections, and Bayesian averages of outputs related to single models. If MLP and ARMA are equivalent (nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both), this hybridization allows a nRMSE gain upper than 14 percentage points compared to the persistence estimation (nRMSE=37% versus 51%).Comment: Applied Energy (2013

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models

On the Bayesian network based data mining framework for the choice of appropriate time scale for regional analysis of drought Hazard

Data mining has a significant role in hyrdrologic research. Among several methods of data mining, Bayesian network theory has great importance and wide applications as well. The drought indices are very useful tools for drought monitoring and forecasting. However, the multi-scaling nature of standardized type drought indices creates several problems in data analysis and reanalysis at regional level. This paper presents a novel framework of data mining for hydrological research-the Bayesian Integrated Regional Drought Time Scale (BIRDts). The mechanism of BIRDts gives effective and sufficient time scales by considering dependency/interdependency probabilities from Bayesian network algorithm. The resultant time scales are proposed for further investigation and research related to the hydrological process. Application of the proposed method consists of 46 meteorological stations of Pakistan. In this research, we have employed Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI) drought index for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and ()month time scales. Outcomes associated with this research show that the proposed method has rationale to aggregate time scales at regional level by configuring marginal posterior probability as weights in the selection process of effective drought time scales

“Dust in the wind...”, deep learning application to wind energy time series forecasting

To balance electricity production and demand, it is required to use different prediction techniques extensively. Renewable energy, due to its intermittency, increases the complexity and uncertainty of forecasting, and the resulting accuracy impacts all the different players acting around the electricity systems around the world like generators, distributors, retailers, or consumers. Wind forecasting can be done under two major approaches, using meteorological numerical prediction models or based on pure time series input. Deep learning is appearing as a new method that can be used for wind energy prediction. This work develops several deep learning architectures and shows their performance when applied to wind time series. The models have been tested with the most extensive wind dataset available, the National Renewable Laboratory Wind Toolkit, a dataset with 126,692 wind points in North America. The architectures designed are based on different approaches, Multi-Layer Perceptron Networks (MLP), Convolutional Networks (CNN), and Recurrent Networks (RNN). These deep learning architectures have been tested to obtain predictions in a 12-h ahead horizon, and the accuracy is measured with the coefficient of determination, the R² method. The application of the models to wind sites evenly distributed in the North America geography allows us to infer several conclusions on the relationships between methods, terrain, and forecasting complexity. The results show differences between the models and confirm the superior capabilities on the use of deep learning techniques for wind speed forecasting from wind time series data.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Clustering Analysis within Text Classification Techniques

The paper represents a personal approach upon the main applications of classification which are presented in the area of knowledge based society by means of methods and techniques widely spread in the literature. Text classification is underlined in chapter two where the main techniques used are described, along with an integrated taxonomy. The transition is made through the concept of spatial representation. Having the elementary elements of geometry and the artificial intelligence analysis, spatial representation models are presented. Using a parallel approach, spatial dimension is introduced in the process of classification. The main clustering methods are described in an aggregated taxonomy. For an example, spam and ham words are clustered and spatial represented, when the concepts of spam, ham and common and linkage word are presented and explained in the xOy space representation.Knowledge Societies, Text Classification, Spatial Representation, Artificial Intelligence, Clustering Analysis, Spam Filtering