Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach

As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally, the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Review on Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Microgrids

A microgrid can be formed by the integration of different components such as loads, renewable/conventional units, and energy storage systems in a local area. Microgrids with the advantages of being flexible, environmentally friendly, and self-sufficient can improve the power system performance metrics such as resiliency and reliability. However, design and implementation of microgrids are always faced with different challenges considering the uncertainties associated with loads and renewable energy resources (RERs), sudden load variations, energy management of several energy resources, etc. Therefore, it is required to employ such rapid and accurate methods, as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, to address these challenges and improve the MG's efficiency, stability, security, and reliability. Utilization of AI helps to develop systems as intelligent as humans to learn, decide, and solve problems. This paper presents a review on different applications of AI-based techniques in microgrids such as energy management, load and generation forecasting, protection, power electronics control, and cyber security. Different AI tasks such as regression and classification in microgrids are discussed using methods including machine learning, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machines, etc. The advantages, limitation, and future trends of AI applications in microgrids are discussed.©2022 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Intelligent energy management system - techniques and methods

ABSTRACT Our environment is an asset to be managed carefully and is not an expendable resource to be taken for granted. The main original contribution of this thesis is in formulating intelligent techniques and simulating case studies to demonstrate the significance of the present approach for achieving a low carbon economy. Energy boosts crop production, drives industry and increases employment. Wise energy use is the first step to ensuring sustainable energy for present and future generations. Energy services are essential for meeting internationally agreed development goals. Energy management system lies at the heart of all infrastructures from communications, economy, and society’s transportation to the society. This has made the system more complex and more interdependent. The increasing number of disturbances occurring in the system has raised the priority of energy management system infrastructure which has been improved with the aid of technology and investment; suitable methods have been presented to optimize the system in this thesis. Since the current system is facing various problems from increasing disturbances, the system is operating on the limit, aging equipments, load change etc, therefore an improvement is essential to minimize these problems. To enhance the current system and resolve the issues that it is facing, smart grid has been proposed as a solution to resolve power problems and to prevent future failures. This thesis argues that smart grid consists of computational intelligence and smart meters to improve the reliability, stability and security of power. In comparison with the current system, it is more intelligent, reliable, stable and secure, and will reduce the number of blackouts and other failures that occur on the power grid system. Also, the thesis has reported that smart metering is technically feasible to improve energy efficiency. In the thesis, a new technique using wavelet transforms, floating point genetic algorithm and artificial neural network based hybrid model for gaining accurate prediction of short-term load forecast has been developed. Adopting the new model is more accuracy than radial basis function network. Actual data has been used to test the proposed new method and it has been demonstrated that this integrated intelligent technique is very effective for the load forecast. Choosing the appropriate algorithm is important to implement the optimization during the daily task in the power system. The potential for application of swarm intelligence to Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch (ORPD) has been shown in this thesis. After making the comparison of the results derived from swarm intelligence, improved genetic algorithm and a conventional gradient-based optimization method, it was concluded that swam intelligence is better in terms of performance and precision in solving optimal reactive power dispatch problems

Applications of Computational Intelligence to Power Systems

In power system operation and control, the basic goal is to provide users with quality electricity power in an economically rational degree for power systems, and to ensure their stability and reliability. However, the increased interconnection and loading of the power system along with deregulation and environmental concerns has brought new challenges for electric power system operation, control, and automation. In the liberalised electricity market, the operation and control of a power system has become a complex process because of the complexity in modelling and uncertainties. Computational intelligence (CI) is a family of modern tools for solving complex problems that are difficult to solve using conventional techniques, as these methods are based on several requirements that may not be true all of the time. Developing solutions with these “learning-based” tools offers the following two major advantages: the development time is much shorter than when using more traditional approaches, and the systems are very robust, being relatively insensitive to noisy and/or missing data/information, known as uncertainty

Efficient use of deep learning and machine learning for load forecasting in South African power distribution networks

Abstract: Load forecasting, which is the act of anticipating future loads, has been shown to be important in power system network planning, operations and maintenance. Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have been shown to be good tools for load forecasting. Load forecasting can assist power distribution utilities maximise their revenue through optimising maintenance planning. With the dawn of the smart grid, first world countries have moved past the customer’s point of supply and use smart meters to forecast customer loads. These recent studies also utilise recent state of the art AI techniques such as deep learning techniques. Weather parameters are such as temperature, humidity and rainfall are usually used as parameters in these studies. South African load forecasting studies are outdated and recent studies are limited. Most of these studies are from 2010, and dating backwards to 1999. Hence they do not use recent state of the art AI techniques. The studies do not focus at distribution level load forecasting for optimal maintenance planning. The impact of adjusting power consumption data when there are spikes and dips in the data was not investigated in all these South African studies. These studies did not investigate the impact of weather parameters on different South African loads and hence load forecasting performance...D.Phil. (Electrical and Electronic Management

Transient stability assessment of hybrid distributed generation using computational intelligence approaches

Includes bibliographical references.Due to increasing integration of new technologies into the grid such as hybrid electric vehicles, distributed generations, power electronic interface circuits, advanced controllers etc., the present power system network is now more complex than in the past. Consequently, the recent rate of blackouts recorded in some parts of the world indicates that the power system is stressed. The real time/online monitoring and prediction of stability limit is needed to prevent future blackouts. In the last decade, Distributed Generators (DGs) among other technologies have received increasing attention. This is because DGs have the capability to meet peak demand, reduce losses, due to proximity to consumers and produce clean energy and thus reduce the production of CO₂. More benefits can be obtained when two or more DGs are combined together to form what is known as Hybrid Distributed Generation (HDG). The challenge with hybrid distributed generation (HDG) powered by intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind turbine and small hydro power is that the system is more vulnerable to instabilities compared to single renewable energy source DG. This is because of the intermittent nature of the renewable energy sources and the complex interaction between the DGs and the distribution network. Due to the complexity and the stress level of the present power system network, real time/online monitoring and prediction of stability limits is becoming an essential and important part of present day control centres. Up to now, research on the impact of HDG on the transient stability is very limited. Generally, to perform transient stability assessment, an analytical approach is often used. The analytical approach requires a large volume of data, detailed mathematical equations and the understanding of the dynamics of the system. Due to the unavailability of accurate mathematical equations for most dynamic systems, and given the large volume of data required, the analytical method is inadequate and time consuming. Moreover, it requires long simulation time to assess the stability limits of the system. Therefore, the analytical approach is inadequate to handle real time operation of power system. In order to carry out real time transient stability assessment under an increasing nonlinear and time varying dynamics, fast scalable and dynamic algorithms are required. Transient Stability Assessment Of Hybrid Distributed Generation Using Computational Intelligence Approaches These algorithms must be able to perform advanced monitoring, decision making, forecasting, control and optimization. Computational Intelligence (CI) based algorithm such as neural networks coupled with Wide Area Monitoring System (WAMS) such as Phasor Measurement Unit (PMUs) have been shown to successfully model non-linear dynamics and predict stability limits in real time. To cope with the shortcoming of the analytical approach, a computational intelligence method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed in this thesis to assess transient stability in real time. Appropriate data related to the hybrid generation (i.e., Solar PV, wind generator, small hydropower) were generated using the analytical approach for the training and testing of the ANN models. In addition, PMUs integrated in Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) were used to gather data for the real time training of the ANNs and the prediction of the Critical Clearing Time (CCT)

Data Mining in Smart Grids

Effective smart grid operation requires rapid decisions in a data-rich, but information-limited, environment. In this context, grid sensor data-streaming cannot provide the system operators with the necessary information to act on in the time frames necessary to minimize the impact of the disturbances. Even if there are fast models that can convert the data into information, the smart grid operator must deal with the challenge of not having a full understanding of the context of the information, and, therefore, the information content cannot be used with any high degree of confidence. To address this issue, data mining has been recognized as the most promising enabling technology for improving decision-making processes, providing the right information at the right moment to the right decision-maker. This Special Issue is focused on emerging methodologies for data mining in smart grids. In this area, it addresses many relevant topics, ranging from methods for uncertainty management, to advanced dispatching. This Special Issue not only focuses on methodological breakthroughs and roadmaps in implementing the methodology, but also presents the much-needed sharing of the best practices. Topics include, but are not limited to, the following: Fuzziness in smart grids computing Emerging techniques for renewable energy forecasting Robust and proactive solution of optimal smart grids operation Fuzzy-based smart grids monitoring and control frameworks Granular computing for uncertainty management in smart grids Self-organizing and decentralized paradigms for information processin

IEEE Access Special Section Editorial: Big Data Technology and Applications in Intelligent Transportation

During the last few years, information technology and transportation industries, along with automotive manufacturers and academia, are focusing on leveraging intelligent transportation systems (ITS) to improve services related to driver experience, connected cars, Internet data plans for vehicles, traffic infrastructure, urban transportation systems, traffic collaborative management, road traffic accidents analysis, road traffic flow prediction, public transportation service plan, personal travel route plans, and the development of an effective ecosystem for vehicles, drivers, traffic controllers, city planners, and transportation applications. Moreover, the emerging technologies of the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing have provided unprecedented opportunities for the development and realization of innovative intelligent transportation systems where sensors and mobile devices can gather information and cloud computing, allowing knowledge discovery, information sharing, and supported decision making. However, the development of such data-driven ITS requires the integration, processing, and analysis of plentiful information obtained from millions of vehicles, traffic infrastructures, smartphones, and other collaborative systems like weather stations and road safety and early warning systems. The huge amount of data generated by ITS devices is only of value if utilized in data analytics for decision-making such as accident prevention and detection, controlling road risks, reducing traffic carbon emissions, and other applications which bring big data analytics into the picture