Aplicación del método Cybersin con lógica difusa en un sistema de control de gestión

El modelo propuesto plantea un sistema de control para los ejecutivos de ventasde las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP). Con ayuda del método Cybersin se calcularon los indicadores: desempeño, logro y latencia que, a su vez, componen las variables, ventas y acompañamiento. Variables valiosas en el funcionamiento de este tipo de organizaciones y usadas en la medición del desempeño de los ejecutivos de ventas. Se construyó un sistema de inferencia difusa con el apoyo delsoftware MATLAB, para simular la productividad de los ejecutivos; este consideralas posibles combinaciones de las variables de entrada y compara el resultado conlas metas establecidas por la organización

Aplicación del método Cybersin con lógica difusa en un sistema de control de gestión

El modelo propuesto plantea un sistema de control para los ejecutivos de ventasde las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP). Con ayuda del método Cybersin se calcularon los indicadores: desempeño, logro y latencia que, a su vez, componen las variables, ventas y acompañamiento. Variables valiosas en el funcionamiento de este tipo de organizaciones y usadas en la medición del desempeño de los ejecutivos de ventas. Se construyó un sistema de inferencia difusa con el apoyo delsoftware MATLAB, para simular la productividad de los ejecutivos; este consideralas posibles combinaciones de las variables de entrada y compara el resultado conlas metas establecidas por la organización

A trial to generalise evaluation of key driving factors of port-city waterfront development

This paper investigates the key successful factors in waterfront port development (WPD). Consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR), with the combination of the preference ranking organisation methods for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), is applied to six ports, namely Busan, Incheon Inner Port, Bangkok, Kaohsiung, Montreal and Liverpool. The latter technique evaluates the performance of WPD among the studied cases, while the former draws the key successful factors (KSFs) of the selected ports. To draw meaningful comparison with the test results from past research, this paper takes the same evaluation hierarchy in the questionnaire form in Lee et al. (2016). With a further validity of the previous findings in WPD studies, this paper does not only provide insight on exploring the generalisation of KSFs in WPD in a longitude manner, but also contributes to the literature of WPD and port-city interplays. Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd

A proactive approach to quantitative assessment of disruption risks of petroleum refinery operation

Petroleum refinery consists of numerous process units in operation, which are subjected to diverse accident risks in day-to-day operations under extreme operating conditions. Due to the complexity of petroleum refinery operations, any failure can lead to major accident and a huge financial loss for a petroleum refining company. However, petroleum refinery operations can be disrupted by various risk elements from the organization, technical, operational and external latent conditions. Risk elements are often inherent in operations, which can be based on uncertain knowledge, oversight and lack of perception of interactive events that can lead to disruption. In order to circumvent events that can cause disruption in a petroleum refinery, the criticality of the risk elements and their attributes that are associated with Petroleum Refinery Process Units (PRPU) operations need to be investigated. Therefore, there is a need to identify and assess the most critical risk elements and attributes that can interact to cause the disruption of operational reliability and availability of a petroleum refinery process unit. Hence, this article proposes a robust fuzzy linguistic assessment methodology for identification and assessment of PRPU risk elements and their attributes. The methodology deals with the main challenges of utilising expert's subjective judgements, in terms of the assessment of PRPU risk elements under uncertain situations. The result of the evaluation and ranking of PRPU risk elements and their attributes can provide salient risk information to duty holders and decision makers in the petroleum refinery in order to prioritise resources for risk management of the most critical attributes of the risk elements. © 2020 Elsevier Lt

Determinantes de la salud de los adultos mayores en el Centro de Salud Candungos – Amazonas

La investigación tuvo como objetivo describir los determinantes de la salud de los adultos mayores en el Centro de Salud Candungos - Amazonas, 2021. El tipo de estudio es de tipo cuantitativo, descriptivo, de corte transversal. La población estuvo constituida por los adultos mayores que acuden al establecimiento, 83 adultos mayores. Se calculó la muestra mediante muestreo probabilístico aleatorio simple resultando 51 adultos mayores. Se aplicó un cuestionario, técnica la entrevista. Los datos fueron procesados en el programa Microsoft Excel, y en programa estadístico IBM SPSS Statistics 24.0. con el fin de analizar mediante la estadística descriptiva. Se concluye, los determinantes biosocioeconòmicos: 51% es género masculino, 100% ingreso económico “Menor a 750 soles”, 60.8% son trabajadores “eventuales”, 62.7% presenta vivienda Unifamiliar, 76.5% abastece de agua en acequìa, 70.6% cocina con leña, 74.5% entierra o quema su basura; los determinantes de estilos de vida: 41.2% no consume con frecuencia bebidas alcohólicas, 60.8% duerme “08 a 06 horas”, 54.9% consume “diario” fideos, arroz y papas; los determinantes de redes comunitarias: 49% recibe apoyo social por familiares, 100% no recibe apoyo social organizado, 100% recibe atención en el Centro de Salud, 100% tiene seguro SIS – MINSA, 62.8% su calidad de atención es regular

Advanced Safety Methodology for Risk Management of Petroleum Refinery Operations

Petroleum refineries are important facilities for refining petroleum products that provide the primary source of energy for domestic and industrial consumption globally. Petroleum refinery operations provide significant contribution to global economic growth. Petroleum refineries are complex, multifaceted systems that perform multiple phase operations characterized by a high level of risk. Evidence based major accidents that have occurred within the last three decades in the petroleum refineries, around the world, indicates losses estimated in billions of US dollars. Many of these accidents are catastrophes, which have led to the disruption of petroleum refinery operations. These accidents have resulted in production loss, asset damage, environmental damage, fatalities and injuries. However, the foremost issue analysed in literatures in relation to major accidents in petroleum refineries, is the lack of robust risk assessment and resourceful risk management approaches to identify and assess major accident risks, in order to prevent or mitigate them from escalating to an accident. Thus, it is exceptionally critical to readdress the issue of petroleum refinery risk management with the development of a more dependable, adaptable and holistic risk modelling framework for major accident risks investigation. In this thesis, a proactive framework for advanced risk management to analyse and mitigate the disruption risks of petroleum refinery operations is presented. In this research, various risk elements and their attributes that can interact to cause the disruption of PRPU operations were identified and analysed, in order to determine their criticality levels. This thesis shows that the convergent effect of the interactions between the risk elements and their attributes can lead to the disruption of petroleum refinery operations. In the scheme of the study, Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation (FLPR), Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER) and Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) methodologies were proposed and implemented to evaluate the criticality of the risk elements and their attributes and to analyse the risk level of PRPU operations. Also, AHP-fuzzy VIKOR methodology was utilised for decision modelling to determine the optimal strategy for the risk management of the most significant risk elements’ attributes that can interact to cause the disruption of PRPU operations. The methodologies proposed and implemented in this research can be utilised in the petroleum refining industry, to analyse complex risk scenarios where there is incomplete information concerning risk events or where the probability of risk events is uncertain. The result of the analysis conducted in this research to determine the risk level of petroleum refinery operations can be utilised by risk assessors and decision makers as a threshold value for decision making in order to mitigate the disruption risk of PRPU operations. The decision strategies formulated in this thesis based on robust literature review and expert contributions, contributes to knowledge in terms of the risk management of petroleum refinery operations. The result of the evaluation and ranking of the risk elements and their attributes can provide salient risk information to duty holders and decision makers to improve their perceptions, in order to prioritise resources for risk management of the most critical attributes of the risk elements. Overall, the methodologies applied in this thesis, can be tailored to be utilised as a quantitative risk assessment tool, by risk managers and decision analysts in the petroleum refining industry for enhancement risk assessment processes where available information can sometimes be vague or incomplete for risk analysis

Rethinking the risk matrix

So far risk has been mostly defined as the expected value of a loss, mathematically PL (being P the probability of an adverse event and L the loss incurred as a consequence of the adverse event). The so called risk matrix follows from such definition. This definition of risk is justified in a long term “managerial” perspective, in which it is conceivable to distribute the effects of an adverse event on a large number of subjects or a large number of recurrences. In other words, this definition is mostly justified on frequentist terms. Moreover, according to this definition, in two extreme situations (high-probability/low-consequence and low-probability/high-consequence), the estimated risk is low. This logic is against the principles of sustainability and continuous improvement, which should impose instead both a continuous search for lower probabilities of adverse events (higher and higher reliability) and a continuous search for lower impact of adverse events (in accordance with the fail-safe principle). In this work a different definition of risk is proposed, which stems from the idea of safeguard: (1Risk)=(1P)(1L). According to this definition, the risk levels can be considered low only when both the probability of the adverse event and the loss are small. Such perspective, in which the calculation of safeguard is privileged to the calculation of risk, would possibly avoid exposing the Society to catastrophic consequences, sometimes due to wrong or oversimplified use of probabilistic models. Therefore, it can be seen as the citizen’s perspective to the definition of risk