Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Vehicle level health assessment through integrated operational scalable prognostic reasoners

Today’s aircraft are very complex in design and need constant monitoring of the systems to establish the overall health status. Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) is a major component in a new future asset management paradigm where a conscious effort is made to shift asset maintenance from a scheduled based approach to a more proactive and predictive approach. Its goal is to maximize asset operational availability while minimising downtime and the logistics footprint through monitoring deterioration of component conditions. IVHM involves data processing which comprehensively consists of capturing data related to assets, monitoring parameters, assessing current or future health conditions through prognostics and diagnostics engine and providing recommended maintenance actions. The data driven prognostics methods usually use a large amount of data to learn the degradation pattern (nominal model) and predict the future health. Usually the data which is run-to-failure used are accelerated data produced in lab environments, which is hardly the case in real life. Therefore, the nominal model is far from the present condition of the vehicle, hence the predictions will not be very accurate. The prediction model will try to follow the nominal models which mean more errors in the prediction, this is a major drawback of the data driven techniques. This research primarily presents the two novel techniques of adaptive data driven prognostics to capture the vehicle operational scalability degradation. Secondary the degradation information has been used as a Health index and in the Vehicle Level Reasoning System (VLRS). Novel VLRS are also presented in this research study. The research described here proposes a condition adaptive prognostics reasoning along with VLRS

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the in-time aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 1: Modeling and Twinning Enabling Technologies

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This first paper presents a thorough literature review of digital twin trends across many disciplines currently pursuing this area of research. Then, digital twin modeling and twinning enabling technologies are further analyzed by classifying them into two main categories: physical-to-virtual, and virtual-to-physical, based on the direction in which data flows. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the trajectory of digital twin technology over the next decade, and introduces a few emerging areas of research which will likely be of great use in future digital twin research. In part two of this review, the role of uncertainty quantification and optimization are discussed, a battery digital twin is demonstrated, and more perspectives on the future of digital twin are shared

Diagnostic and prognostic analysis tools for monitoring degradation in aged structures

This research addresses the problem of prolonging the life of aged structures of historical value that have already outlived their original designed lives many times. While a lot of research has been carried out in the field of structural monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for high tech industries, this is not the case for historical aged structures. Currently most maintenance projects for aged structures have focused on the instrumentation and diagnostic techniques required to detect any damage with a certain degree of success. This research project involved the development of diagnostic and prognostic tools to be used for monitoring and predicting the ‘health’ of aged structures. The diagnostic and prognostic tools have been developed for the monitoring of Cutty Sark iron structures as a first application. The concept of canary and parrot sensor devices are developed where canary devices are small, accelerated devices, which will fail according to similar failure mechanisms occurring in an aged structures and parrot devices are designed to fail at the same rate as the structure, thus mimicking the structure. The model-driven prognostic tool uses a Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model to predict remaining life of a structure. It uses a corrosion model based on the decrease in corrosion rate over time to predict remaining life of an aged iron structures. The data-driven diagnostic tool developed uses Mahalanobis Distance analysis to detect anomalies in the behaviour of a structure. Bayesian Network models are then used as a fusion method, integrating remaining life predictions from the model-driven prognostic tool with information of possible anomalies from data-driven diagnostic tool to provide a probability distribution of predicted remaining life. The diagnostics and prognostic tools are validated and tested through demonstration example and experimental tests. This research primarily looks at applying diagnostic and prognostic technologies used in high-tech industries to aged iron structures. In order to achieve this, the model-driven and data-driven techniques commonly used had to be adapted taking into consideration the particular constraints of monitoring and maintaining aged structures. The fusion technique developed is a novel approach for prognostics for aged structures and provides the flexibility often needed for diagnostic and prognostic tools

Advanced methodologies for reliability-based design optimization and structural health prognostics

Failures of engineered systems can lead to significant economic and societal losses. To minimize the losses, reliability must be ensured throughout the system's lifecycle in the presence of manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Many reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques have been developed to ensure high reliability of engineered system design under manufacturing variability. Schedule-based maintenance, although expensive, has been a popular method to maintain highly reliable engineered systems under uncertain operational conditions. However, so far there is no cost-effective and systematic approach to ensure high reliability of engineered systems throughout their lifecycles while accounting for both the manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Inspired by an intrinsic ability of systems in ecology, economics, and other fields that is able to proactively adjust their functioning to avoid potential system failures, this dissertation attempts to adaptively manage engineered system reliability during its lifecycle by advancing two essential and co-related research areas: system RBDO and prognostics and health management (PHM). System RBDO ensures high reliability of an engineered system in the early design stage, whereas capitalizing on PHM technology enables the system to proactively avoid failures in its operation stage. Extensive literature reviews in these areas have identified four key research issues: (1) how system failure modes and their interactions can be analyzed in a statistical sense; (2) how limited data for input manufacturing variability can be used for RBDO; (3) how sensor networks can be designed to effectively monitor system health degradation under highly uncertain operational conditions; and (4) how accurate and timely remaining useful lives of systems can be predicted under highly uncertain operational conditions. To properly address these key research issues, this dissertation lays out four research thrusts in the following chapters: Chapter 3 - Complementary Intersection Method for System Reliability Analysis, Chapter 4 - Bayesian Approach to RBDO, Chapter 5 - Sensing Function Design for Structural Health Prognostics, and Chapter 6 - A Generic Framework for Structural Health Prognostics. Multiple engineering case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed RBDO and PHM techniques for ensuring and improving the reliability of engineered systems within their lifecycles

Condition-based maintenance—an extensive literature review

This paper presents an extensive literature review on the field of condition-based maintenance (CBM). The paper encompasses over 4000 contributions, analysed through bibliometric indicators and meta-analysis techniques. The review adopts Factor Analysis as a dimensionality reduction, concerning the metric of the co-citations of the papers. Four main research areas have been identified, able to delineate the research field synthetically, from theoretical foundations of CBM; (i) towards more specific implementation strategies (ii) and then specifically focusing on operational aspects related to (iii) inspection and replacement and (iv) prognosis. The data-driven bibliometric results have been combined with an interpretative research to extract both core and detailed concepts related to CBM. This combined analysis allows a critical reflection on the field and the extraction of potential future research directions

Review of Health Prognostics and Condition Monitoring of Electronic Components

To meet the specifications of low cost, highly reliable electronic devices, fault diagnosis techniques play an essential role. It is vital to find flaws at an early stage in design, components, material, or manufacturing during the initial phase. This review paper attempts to summarize past development and recent advances in the areas about green manufacturing, maintenance, remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, and like. The current state of the art in reliability research for electronic components, mainly includes failure mechanisms, condition monitoring, and residual lifetime evaluation is explored. A critical analysis of reliability studies to identify their relative merits and usefulness of the outcome of these studies' vis-a-vis green manufacturing is presented. The wide array of statistical, empirical, and intelligent tools and techniques used in the literature are then identified and mapped. Finally, the findings are summarized, and the central research gap is highlighted