Another Look at Key Randomisation Hypotheses

In the context of linear cryptanalysis of block ciphers, let $p_0$ (resp. $p_1$) be the probability that a particular linear approximation holds for the right (resp. a wrong) key choice. The standard right key randomisation hypothesis states that $p_0$ is a constant $p\neq 1/2$ and the standard wrong key randomisation hypothesis states that $p_1=1/2$. Using these hypotheses, the success probability $P_S$ of the attack can be expressed in terms of the data complexity $N$. The resulting expression for $P_S$ is a monotone increasing function of $N$. Building on earlier work by Daemen and Rijmen (2007), Bogdanov and Tischhauser (2014) argued that $p_1$ should be considered to be a random variable. They postulated the adjusted wrong key randomisation hypothesis which states that $p_1$ follows a normal distribution. A non-intuitive consequence was that the resulting expression for $P_S$ is no longer a monotone increasing function of $N$. A later work by Blondeau and Nyberg (2017) argued that $p_0$ should also be considered to be a random variable and they postulated the adjusted right key randomisation hypothesis which states that $p_0$ follows a normal distribution. In this work, we revisit the key randomisation hypotheses. While the argument that $p_0$ and $p_1$ should be considered to be random variables is indeed valid, we consider the modelling of their distributions by normal to be inappropriate. Being probabilities, the support of the distributions of $p_0$ and $p_1$ should be subsets of $[0,1]$ which does not hold for normal distributions. We show that if $p_0$ and $p_1$ follow any distributions with supports which are subsets of $[0,1]$, and $E[p_0]=p$ and $E[p_1]=1/2$, then the expression for $P_S$ that is obtained is exactly the same as the one obtained using the standard key randomisation hypotheses. Consequently, $P_S$ is a monotone increasing function of $N$ even when $p_0$ and $p_1$ are considered to be random variables

Stating Appointment Costs in SMS Reminders Reduces Missed Hospital Appointments: Findings from Two Randomised Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND: Missed hospital appointments are a major cause of inefficiency worldwide. Healthcare providers are increasingly using Short Message Service reminders to reduce 'Did Not Attend' (DNA) rates. Systematic reviews show that sending such reminders is effective, but there is no evidence on whether their impact is affected by their content. Accordingly, we undertook two randomised controlled trials that tested the impact of rephrasing appointment reminders on DNA rates in the United Kingdom. TRIAL METHODS: Participants were outpatients with a valid mobile telephone number and an outpatient appointment between November 2013 and January 2014 (Trial One, 10,111 participants) or March and May 2014 (Trial Two, 9,848 participants). Appointments were randomly allocated to one of four reminder messages, which were issued five days in advance. Message assignment was then compared against appointment outcomes (appointment attendance, DNA, cancellation by patient). RESULTS: In Trial One, a message including the cost of a missed appointment to the health system produced a DNA rate of 8.4%, compared to 11.1% for the existing message (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61-0.89, P<0.01). Trial Two replicated this effect (DNA rate 8.2%), but also found that expressing the same concept in general terms was significantly less effective (DNA rate 9.9%, OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.00-1.48, P<0.05). Moving from the existing reminder to the more effective costs message would result in 5,800 fewer missed appointments per year in the National Health Service Trust in question, at no additional cost. The study's main limitations are that it took place in a single location in England, and that it required accurate phone records, which were only obtained for 20% of eligible patients. We conclude that missed appointments can be reduced, for no additional cost, by introducing persuasive messages to appointment reminders. Future studies could examine the impact of varying reminder messages in other health systems. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com 49432571

A randomised feasibility study of serial magnetic resonance imaging to reduce treatment times in Charcot neuroarthropathy in people with diabetes (CADOM): A protocol

Background Charcot neuroarthropathy is a complication of peripheral neuropathy associated with diabetes which most frequently affects the lower limb. It can cause fractures and dislocations within the foot, which may progress to deformity and ulceration. Recommended treatment is immobilisation and offloading, with a below knee non-removable cast or boot. Duration of treatment varies from six months to more than one year. Small observational studies suggest that repeated assessment with Magnetic Resonance Imaging improves decision making about when to stop treatment, but this has not been tested in clinical trials. This study aims to explore the feasibility of using serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging without contrast in the monitoring of Charcot neuroarthropathy to reduce duration of immobilisation of the foot. A nested qualitative study aims to explore participants’ lived experience of Charcot neuroarthropathy and of taking part in the feasibility study. Methods We will undertake a two arm, open study, and randomise 60 people with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of Charcot neuroarthropathy from five NHS, secondary care multidisciplinary Diabetic Foot Clinics across England. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to receive Magnetic Resonance Imaging at baseline and remission up to 12 months, with repeated foot temperature measurements and x-rays (standard care plus), or standard care plus with additional three-monthly Magnetic Resonance Imaging until remission up to 12 months (intervention). Time to confirmed remission of Charcot neuroarthropathy with off-loading treatment (days) and its variance will be used to inform sample size in a full-scale trial. We will look for opportunities to improve the protocols for monitoring techniques and the clinical, patient centred, and health economic measures used in a future study. For the nested qualitative study, we will invite a purposive sample of 10-14 people able to offer maximally varying experiences from the feasibility study to take part in semi-structured interviews to be analysed using thematic analysis. Discussion The study will inform the decision whether to proceed to a full-scale trial. It will also allow deeper understanding of the lived experience of Charcot neuroarthropathy, and factors that contribute to engagement in management and contribute to the development of more effective patient centred strategies. Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN, 74101606. Registered on 6 November 2017, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN74101606?q=CADom&filters=&sort=&offset=1&totalResults=1&page=1&pageSize=10&searchType=basic-searc

Experimental Tests of Survey Responses to Expenditure Questions

This paper tests for a number of survey effects in the elicitation of expenditure items. In particular we examine the extent to which individuals use features of the expenditure question to construct their answers. We test whether respondents interpret question wording as researchers intend and examine the extent to which prompts, clarifications and seemingly arbitrary features of survey design influence expenditure reports. We find that over one quarter of respondents have difficulty distinguishing between "you" and “your household” when making expenditure reports; that respondents report higher pro-rata expenditure when asked to give responses on a weekly as opposed to monthly or annual time scale; that respondents give higher estimates when using a scale with a higher mid-point; and that respondents report higher aggregated expenditure when categories are presented in a disaggregated form. In summary, expenditure reports are constructed using convenient rules of thumb and available information, which will depend on the characteristics of the respondent, the expenditure domain and features of the survey question. It is crucial to further account for these features in ongoing surveys.expenditure surveys, survey design, data experiments

Economics of education research: a review and future prospects

In this paper we offer an appraisal of the economics of education research area, charting its history as a field and discussing the ways in which economists have contributed both to education research and to education policy-making. In particular, we highlight the theoretical and methodological contributions that economists have made to the field of education during the last 50 years. Despite the success of the economics of education as a field of inquiry, we argue that some of the contributions made by economists could be limited if the economics of education is seen as quite distinct from the other disciplines working in the field of education. In these areas of common interest, economists need to work side by side with the other major disciplines in the field of education if their contribution to the field is to be maximised, particularly in terms of applying improved methodology. We conclude that the study of education acquisition and its economic and social impact in the economics of education research area is very likely to remain a fertile research ground. Acknowledgement

The donor problem

Donors often rely on local intermediaries to deliver benefits to target beneficiaries. Each selected recipient observes if the intermediary under-delivers to them, so they serve as natural monitors. However, they may withhold complaints when feeling unentitled or grateful to the intermediary for selecting them. Furthermore, the intermediary may distort selection (e.g. by picking richer recipients who feel less entitled) to reduce complaints. We design an experimental game representing the donor’s problem. In one treatment, the intermediary selects recipients. In the other, selection is random - as by an uninformed donor. In our data, random selection dominates delegation of the selection task to the intermediary. Selection distortions are similar, but intermediaries embezzle more when they have selection power and (correctly) expect fewer complaints.Development, Entitlement, Experiments, Fairness, Intermediaries, Monitoring, Targeting, Punishment.

Quantum learning: optimal classification of qubit states

Pattern recognition is a central topic in Learning Theory with numerous applications such as voice and text recognition, image analysis, computer diagnosis. The statistical set-up in classification is the following: we are given an i.i.d. training set $(X_{1},Y_{1}),... (X_{n},Y_{n})$ where $X_{i}$ represents a feature and $Y_{i}\in \{0,1\}$ is a label attached to that feature. The underlying joint distribution of $(X,Y)$ is unknown, but we can learn about it from the training set and we aim at devising low error classifiers $f:X\to Y$ used to predict the label of new incoming features. Here we solve a quantum analogue of this problem, namely the classification of two arbitrary unknown qubit states. Given a number of `training' copies from each of the states, we would like to `learn' about them by performing a measurement on the training set. The outcome is then used to design mesurements for the classification of future systems with unknown labels. We find the asymptotically optimal classification strategy and show that typically, it performs strictly better than a plug-in strategy based on state estimation. The figure of merit is the excess risk which is the difference between the probability of error and the probability of error of the optimal measurement when the states are known, that is the Helstrom measurement. We show that the excess risk has rate $n^{-1}$ and compute the exact constant of the rate.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figure

Grey matter volume correlates with virtual water maze task performance in boys with androgen excess

Major questions remain about the specific role of testosterone in human spatial navigation. We tested 10 boys (mean age 11.65 years) with an extremely rare disorder of androgen excess (Familial Male Precocious Puberty, FMPP) and 40 healthy boys (mean age 12.81 years) on a virtual version of the Morris Water Maze task. In addition, anatomical magnetic resonance images were collected for all patients and a subsample of the controls (n=21) after task completion. Behaviourally, no significant differences were found between both groups. However, in the MRI analyses, grey matter volume (GMV) was correlated with performance using voxel-based morphometry (VBM). Group differences in correlations of performance with GMV were apparent in medial regions of the prefrontal cortex as well as the middle occipital gyrus and the cuneus. By comparison, similar correlations for both groups were found in the inferior parietal lobule. These data provide novel insight into the relation between testosterone and brain development and suggest that morphological differences in a spatial navigation network covary with performance in spatial ability. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IBRO

INTroducing A Care bundle To prevent pressure injury (INTACT) in at-risk patients: A protocol for a cluster randomised trial

Background Pressure injuries are a significant clinical and economic issue, affecting both patients and the health care system. Many pressure injuries in hospitals are facility acquired, and are largely preventable. Despite growing evidence and directives for pressure injury prevention, implementation of preventative strategies is suboptimal, and pressure injuries remain a serious problem in hospitals. Objectives This study will test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a patient-centred pressure injury prevention care bundle on the development of hospital acquired pressure injury in at-risk patients. Design This is a multi-site, parallel group cluster randomised trial. The hospital is the unit of randomisation. Methods Adult medical and surgical patients admitted to the study wards of eight hospitals who are (a) deemed to be at risk of pressure injury (i.e. have reduced mobility), (b) expected to stay in hospital for ≥48 h, (c) admitted to hospital in the past 36 h; and (d) able to provide informed consent will be eligible to participate. Consenting patients will receive either the pressure injury prevention care bundle or standard care. The care bundle contains three main messages: (1) keep moving; (2) look after your skin; and (3) eat a healthy diet. Nurses will receive education about the intervention. Patients will exit the study upon development of a pressure injury, hospital discharge or 28 days, whichever comes first; transfer to another hospital or transfer to critical care and mechanically ventilated. The primary outcome is incidence of hospital acquired pressure injury. Secondary outcomes are pressure injury stage, patient participation in care and health care costs. A health economic sub-study and a process evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Data will be analysed at the cluster (hospital) and patient level. Estimates of hospital acquired pressure injury incidence in each group, group differences and 95% confidence interval and p values will be reported. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first trial of an intervention to incorporate a number of pressure injury prevention strategies into a care bundle focusing on patient participation and nurse–patient partnership. The results of this study will provide important information on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of this intervention in preventing pressure injuries in at-risk patients. If the results confirm the utility of the developed care bundle, it could have a significant impact on clinical practice worldwide