Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of cellular traffic in metropolis

ISSN:1536-1233ISSN:1558-066

Capturing time in space : Dynamic analysis of accessibility and mobility to support spatial planning with open data and tools

Understanding the spatial patterns of accessibility and mobility are a key (factor) to comprehend the functioning of our societies. Hence, their analysis has become increasingly important for both scientific research and spatial planning. Spatial accessibility and mobility are closely related concepts, as accessibility describes the potential to move by modeling, whereas spatial mobility describes the realized movements of individuals. While both spatial accessibility and mobility have been widely studied, the understanding of how time and temporal change affects accessibility and mobility has been rather limited this far. In the era of ‘big data’, the wealth of temporally sensitive spatial data has made it possible, better than ever, to capture and understand the temporal realities of spatial accessibility and mobility, and hence start to understand better the dynamics of our societies and complex living environment. In this thesis, I aim to develop novel approaches and methods to study the spatio-temporal realities of our living environments via concepts of accessibility and mobility: How people can access places, how they actually move, and how they use space. I inspect these dynamics on several temporal granularities, covering hourly, daily, monthly, and yearly observations and analyses. With novel big data sources, the methodological development and careful assessment of the information extracted from them is extremely important as they are increasingly used to guide decision-making. Hence, I investigate the opportunities and pitfalls of different data sources and methodological approaches in this work. Contextually, I aim to reveal the role of time and the mode of transportation in relation to spatial accessibility and mobility, in both urban and rural environments, and discuss their role in spatial planning. I base my findings on five scientific articles on studies carried out in: Peruvian Amazonia; national parks of South Africa and Finland; Tallinn, Estonia; and Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. I use and combine data from various sources to extract knowledge from them, including GPS devices; transportation schedules; mobile phones; social media; statistics; land-use data; and surveys. My results demonstrate that spatial accessibility and mobility are highly dependent on time, having clear diurnal and seasonal changes. Hence, it is important to consider temporality when analyzing accessibility, as people, transport and activities all fluctuate as a function of time that affects e.g. the spatial equality of reaching services. In addition, different transport modes should be considered as there are clear differences between them. Furthermore, I show that, in addition to the observed spatial population dynamics, also nature’s own dynamism affects accessibility and mobility on a regional level due to the seasonal variation in river-levels. Also, the visitation patterns in national parks vary significantly over time, as can be observed from social media. Methodologically, this work demonstrates that with a sophisticated fusion of methods and data, it is possible to assess; enrich; harmonize; and increase the spatial and temporal accuracy of data that can be used to better inform spatial planning and decision-making. Finally, I wish to emphasize the importance of bringing scientific knowledge and tools into practice. Hence, all the tools, analytical workflows, and data are openly available for everyone whenever possible. This approach has helped to bring the knowledge and tools into practice with relevant stakeholders in relation to spatial planning

Modeling Human Mobility Entropy as a Function of Spatial and Temporal Quantizations

The knowledge of human mobility is an integral component of several different branches of research and planning, including delay tolerant network routing, cellular network planning, disease prevention, and urban planning. The uncertainty associated with a person's movement plays a central role in movement predictability studies. The uncertainty can be quantified in a succinct manner using entropy rate, which is based on the information theoretic entropy. The entropy rate is usually calculated from past mobility traces. While the uncertainty, and therefore, the entropy rate depend on the human behavior, the entropy rate is not invariant to spatial resolution and sampling interval employed to collect mobility traces. The entropy rate of a person is a manifestation of the observable features in the person's mobility traces. Like entropy rate, these features are also dependent on spatio-temporal quantization. Different mobility studies are carried out using different spatio-temporal quantization, which can obscure the behavioral differences of the study populations. But these behavioral differences are important for population-specific planning. The goal of dissertation is to develop a theoretical model that will address this shortcoming of mobility studies by separating parameters pertaining to human behavior from the spatial and temporal parameters

An Interdisciplinary Survey on Origin-destination Flows Modeling: Theory and Techniques

Origin-destination~(OD) flow modeling is an extensively researched subject across multiple disciplines, such as the investigation of travel demand in transportation and spatial interaction modeling in geography. However, researchers from different fields tend to employ their own unique research paradigms and lack interdisciplinary communication, preventing the cross-fertilization of knowledge and the development of novel solutions to challenges. This article presents a systematic interdisciplinary survey that comprehensively and holistically scrutinizes OD flows from utilizing fundamental theory to studying the mechanism of population mobility and solving practical problems with engineering techniques, such as computational models. Specifically, regional economics, urban geography, and sociophysics are adept at employing theoretical research methods to explore the underlying mechanisms of OD flows. They have developed three influential theoretical models: the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the radiation model. These models specifically focus on examining the fundamental influences of distance, opportunities, and population on OD flows, respectively. In the meantime, fields such as transportation, urban planning, and computer science primarily focus on addressing four practical problems: OD prediction, OD construction, OD estimation, and OD forecasting. Advanced computational models, such as deep learning models, have gradually been introduced to address these problems more effectively. Finally, based on the existing research, this survey summarizes current challenges and outlines future directions for this topic. Through this survey, we aim to break down the barriers between disciplines in OD flow-related research, fostering interdisciplinary perspectives and modes of thinking.Comment: 49 pages, 6 figure

Human mobility: Models and applications

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordRecent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.US Army Research Offic

Human mobility:Models and applications

Recent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.Comment: 126 pages, 45+ figure

Cellular system information capacity change at higher frequencies due to propagation loss and system parameters

In this paper, mathematical analysis supported by computer simulation is used to study cellular system information capacity change due to propagation loss and system parameters (such as path loss exponent, shadowing and antenna height) at microwave carrier frequencies greater than 2 GHz and smaller cell size radius. An improved co-channel interference model, which includes the second tier co-channel interfering cells is used for the analysis. The system performance is measured in terms of the uplink information capacity of a time-division multiple access (TDMA) based cellular wireless system. The analysis and simulation results show that the second tier co-channel interfering cells become active at higher microwave carrier frequencies and smaller cell size radius. The results show that for both distance-dependent: path loss, shadowing and effective road height the uplink information capacity of the cellular wireless system decreases as carrier frequency increases and cell size radius R decreases. For example at a carrier frequency fc = 15.75 GHz, basic path loss exponent α = 2 and cell size radius R = 100, 500 and 1000m the decrease in information capacity was 20, 5.29 and 2.68%