Strategies to Improve Data Quality for Forecasting Repairable Spare Parts

Poor input data quality used in repairable spare parts forecasting by aerospace small and midsize enterprises (SME) suppliers results in poor inventory practices that manifest into higher costs and critical supply shortage risks. Guided by the data quality management (DQM) theory as the conceptual framework, the purpose of this exploratory multiple case study was to identify the key strategies that the aerospace SME repairable spares suppliers use to maximize their input data quality used in forecasting repairable spare parts. The multiple case study comprised of a census sample of 6 forecasting business leaders from aerospace SME repairable spares suppliers located in the states of Florida and Kansas. The sample was collected via semistructured interviews and supporting documentation from the consenting participants and organizational websites. Eight core themes emanated from the application of the content data analysis process coupled with methodological triangulation. These themes were labeled as establish data governance, identify quality forecast input data sources, develop a sustainable relationship and collaboration with customers and vendors, utilize a strategic data quality system, conduct continuous input data quality analysis, identify input data quality measures, incorporate continuous improvement initiatives, and engage in data quality training and education. Of the 8 core themes, 6 aligned to the DQM theory\u27s conceptual constructs while 2 surfaced as outliers. The key implication of the research toward positive social change may include the increased situational awareness for SME forecasting business leaders to focus on enhancing business practices for input data quality to forecast repairable spare parts to attain sustainable profits

A unified methodology of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory

This dissertation focuses on the study of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory. From reliability engineering’s point of view, all systems are subject to deterioration with age and usage. System deterioration can take various forms, including wear, fatigue, fracture, cracking, breaking, corrosion, erosion and instability, any of which may ultimately cause the system to fail to perform its required function. Consequently, controlling system deterioration through maintenance and thus controlling the risk of system failure becomes beneficial or even necessary. Decision makers constantly face two fundamental problems with respect to system maintenance. One is whether or when preventive maintenance should be performed in order to avoid costly failures. The other problem is how to make the choice among different maintenance actions in response to a system failure. The whole purpose of maintenance management is to keep the system in good working condition at a reasonably low cost, thus the tradeoff between cost and condition plays a central role in the study of maintenance management, which demands rigorous optimization. The agenda of this research is to develop a unified methodology for modeling and optimization of maintenance systems. A general modeling framework with six classifying criteria is to be developed to formulate and analyze a wide range of maintenance systems which include many existing models in the literature. A unified optimization procedure is developed based on optimal stopping, semi-martingale, and lambda-maximization techniques to solve these models contained in the framework. A comprehensive model is proposed and solved in this general framework using the developed procedure which incorporates many other models as special cases. Policy comparison and policy optimality are studied to offer further insights. Along the theoretical development, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the methodology. The main contribution of this research is that the unified modeling framework and systematic optimization procedure structurize the pool of models and policies, weed out non-optimal policies, and establish a theoretical foundation for further development

Multiobjective Coordination Models For Maintenance And Service Parts Inventory Planning And Control

In many equipment-intensive organizations in the manufacturing, service and particularly the defense sectors, service parts inventories constitute a significant source of tactical and operational costs and consume a significant portion of capital investment. For instance, the Defense Logistics Agency manages about 4 million consumable service parts and provides about 93% of all consumable service parts used by the military services. These items required about US$1.9 billion over the fiscal years 1999-2002. During the same time, the US General Accountability Office discovered that, in the United States Navy, there were about 3.7 billion ship and submarine parts that were not needed. The Federal Aviation Administration says that 26 million aircraft parts are changed each year. In 2002, the holding cost of service parts for the aviation industry was estimated to be US$50 billion. The US Army Institute of Land Warfare reports that, at the beginning of the 2003 fiscal year, prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom the aviation service parts alone was in excess of US$1 billion. This situation makes the management of these items a very critical tactical and strategic issue that is worthy of further study. The key challenge is to maintain high equipment availability with low service cost (e.g., holding, warehousing, transportation, technicians, overhead, etc.). For instance, despite reporting US$10.5 billion in appropriations spent on purchasing service parts in 2000, the United States Air Force (USAF) continues to report shortages of service parts. The USAF estimates that, if the investment on service parts decreases to about US$5.3 billion, weapons systems availability would range from 73 to 100 percent. Thus, better management of service parts inventories should create opportunities for cost savings caused by the efficient management of these inventories. Unfortunately, service parts belong to a class of inventory that continually makes them difficult to manage. Moreover, it can be said that the general function of service parts inventories is to support maintenance actions; therefore, service parts inventory policies are highly related to the resident maintenance policies. However, the interrelationship between service parts inventory management and maintenance policies is often overlooked, both in practice and in the academic literature, when it comes to optimizing maintenance and service parts inventory policies. Hence, there exists a great divide between maintenance and service parts inventory theory and practice. This research investigation specifically considers the aspect of joint maintenance and service part inventory optimization. We decompose the joint maintenance and service part inventory optimization problem into the supplier s problem and the customer s problem. Long-run expected cost functions for each problem that include the most common maintenance cost parameters and service parts inventory cost parameters are presented. Computational experiments are conducted for a single-supplier two-echelon service parts supply chain configuration varying the number of customers in the network. Lateral transshipments (LTs) of service parts between customers are not allowed. For this configuration, we optimize the cost functions using a traditional, or decoupled, approach, where each supply chain entity optimizes its cost individually, and a joint approach, where the cost objectives of both the supplier and customers are optimized simultaneously. We show that the multiple objective optimization approach outperforms the traditional decoupled optimization approach by generating lower system-wide supply chain network costs. The model formulations are extended by relaxing the assumption of no LTs between customers in the supply chain network. Similar to those for the no LTs configuration, the results for the LTs configuration show that the multiobjective optimization outperforms the decoupled optimization in terms of system-wide cost. Hence, it is economically beneficial to jointly consider all parties within the supply network. Further, we compare the model configurations LTs versus no LTs, and we show that using LTs improves the overall savings of the system. It is observed that the improvement is mostly derived from reduced shortage costs since the equipment downtime is reduced due to the proximity of the supply. The models and results of this research have significant practical implications as they can be used to assist decision-makers to determine when and where to pre-position parts inventories to maximize equipment availability. Furthermore, these models can assist in the preparation of the terms of long-term service agreements and maintenance contracts between original equipment manufacturers and their customers (i.e., equipment owners and/or operators), including determining the equitable allocation of all system-wide cost savings under the agreement

Scheduled maintainance policies of repairable computer systems

For systems which can undergo repair, it is common to use regular maintance policies as a means to achieve availability requirements. We develop a solution method to analyze various scheduled maintainance policies of repairable computer systems. The analysis is applicable to systems with failure behaviour which can be modeled by a continuous-time MArkov process, and thus important characteristics can be included in the model. Furthermore, we do not use the assumption of perfect repair, which is unrealistic for most systems. We obtain both transient and steady-state measures. The solution approach is based on the randomization technique and possesses advantagessuch as numerical stability and ease of implementation.Para sistemas que podem ser reparados, é comum o uso de políticas de manutenção regular como meio de se obter desejada confiabilidade. Neste artigo, desenvolvemos um método de solução para analisar várias políticas de manutenção de sistemas de computação reparáveis. A análise se aplica a sistemas cujo comportamento de falha pode ser modelado por um processo de Markov de tempo contínuo e, por conseguinte, características importantes podem ser incluídas no modelo. Além do mais, não é necessário supor que o sistema é reparado com perfeição ao término de um período de manutenção. Esta suposição não é realística na maioria dos casos. São obtidas tanto medidas transientes quanto medidas em estado estacionário. O método de solução é baseado na técnica de aleatorização e possui vantagens tais como estabilidade numérica e facilidade de implementação

Prognostics-Based Two-Operator Competition for Maintenance and Service Part Logistics

Prognostics and timely maintenance of components are critical to the continuing operation of a system. By implementing prognostics, it is possible for the operator to maintain the system in the right place at the right time. However, the complexity in the real world makes near-zero downtime difficult to achieve partly because of a possible shortage of required service parts. This is realistic and quite important in maintenance practice. To coordinate with a prognostics-based maintenance schedule, the operator must decide when to order service parts and how to compete with other operators who also need the same parts. This research addresses a joint decision-making approach that assists two operators in making proactive maintenance decisions and strategically competing for a service part that both operators rely on for their individual operations. To this end, a maintenance policy involving competition in service part procurement is developed based on the Stackelberg game-theoretic model. Variations of the policy are formulated for three different scenarios and solved via either backward induction or genetic algorithm methods. Unlike the first two scenarios, the possibility for either of the operators being the leader in such competitions is considered in the third scenario. A numerical study on wind turbine operation is provided to demonstrate the use of the joint decision-making approach in maintenance and service part logistics

Reliability analysis for automobile engines: conditional inference trees

The reliability model with covariates for machinery parts has been extensively studied by the proportional hazards model (PHM) and its variants. However, it is not straightforward to provide business recommendations based on the results of the PHM. We use a novel method, namely the Conditional Inference Tree, to conduct the reliability analysis for the automobile engines data, provided by a UK fleet company. We find that the reliability of automobile engines is significantly related to the vehicle age, early failure, and repair history. Our tree-structured model can be easily interpreted, and tangible business recommendations are provided for the fleet management and maintenance

Integrated Systems Health Management as an Enabler for Condition Based Maintenance and Autonomic Logistics

Health monitoring systems have demonstrated the ability to detect potential failures in components and predict how long until a critical failure is likely to occur. Implementing these systems on fielded structures, aircraft, or other vehicles is often a struggle to prove cost savings or operational improvements beyond improved safety. A system architecture to identify how the health monitoring systems are integrated into fielded aircraft is developed to assess cost, operations, maintenance, and logistics trade-spaces. The efficiency of a health monitoring system is examined for impacts to the operation of a squadron of cargo aircraft revealing sensitivity to and tolerance for false alarms as a key factor in total system performance. The research focuses on the impacts of system-wide changes to several key metrics: materiel availability, materiel reliability, ownership cost, and mean downtime. Changes to theses system-wide variables include: diagnostic and prognostic error, false alarm sensitivity, supply methods and timing, maintenance manning, and maintenance repair window. Potential cost savings in maintenance and logistics processes are identified as well as increases in operational availability. The result of this research is the development of a tool to conduct trade-space analyses on the effects of health monitoring techniques on system performance and operations and maintenance costs

A complex multi-state k-out-of-n: G system with preventive maintenance and loss of units

In this study, a multi-state k-out-of-n: G system subject to multiple events is modeled through a Markovian Arrival Process with marked arrivals. The system is composed initially of n units and is active when at least k units are operational. Each unit is multi-state, each of which is classified as minor or major according to the level of degradation presented. Each operational unit may undergo internal repairable or non-repairable failures, external shocks and/or random inspections. An external shock can provoke extreme failure, while cumulative external damage can deteriorate internal performance. This situation can produce repairable and non-repairable failures. When a repairable failure occurs the unit is sent to a repair facility for corrective repair. If the failure is non-repairable, the unit is removed. When the system has insufficient units with which to operate, it is restarted. Preventive maintenance is employed in response to random inspection. The system is modeled in an algorithmic and computational form. Several interesting measures of performance are considered. Costs and rewards are included in the system. All measures are obtained for transient and stationary regimes. A numerical example is analyzed to determine whether preventive maintenance is profitable, financially and in terms of performance.Junta de Andalucía (Spain) FQM-307Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) MTM2017-88708-PEuropean Regional Development Fund (ERDF

On The Maintenance Modeling and Optimization of Repairable Systems: Two Different Scenarios

The use of mathematical modeling for the purpose of analyzing and optimizing the performance of repairable systems is widely studied in the literature. In this dissertation, we study two different scenarios on the maintenance modeling and optimization of repairable systems. First, we study the long-run availability of a traditional repairable system that is subjected to imperfect corrective maintenance. We use Kijima\u27s second virtual age model to describe the imperfect repair process. Because of the complexity of the underlying probability models, we use simulation modeling to estimate availability performance and meta-modeling to convert the reliability and maintainability parameters of the repairable system into an availability estimate without the simulation effort. As a last step, we add age-based, perfect preventive maintenance to our analysis. Second, we optimize a preventive maintenance policy for a two-component repairable system. When either component fails, instantaneous, minimal, and costly corrective maintenance is performed on the component. At equally-spaced, discrete points during the system\u27s useful life, the decision-maker has the option to perform instantaneous, imperfect, and costly preventive maintenance on one or both of the components, to instantaneously replace one or both of the components, or to do nothing. We use a Genetic Algorithm in an attempt to find a cost-optimal set of preventive maintenance and replacement decisions