Opportunity, Temporal Patterns, and Successful Outcomes of Far-right Terrorism Incidents in the United States

This thesis examines the impact that far-right terrorism opportunity structures and temporal patterns of precursor activity have on incident outcomes. Data from the American Terrorism Study (ATS) are extracted for several attributes of far-right opportunity, in addition to measures for temporal patterns of planning and preparatory behaviors. Bivariate and multivariate findings generally support expectations that target attractiveness and vulnerability, far-right group structures, and patterns of precursor activity are significantly associated with incident outcomes. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research and several implications for homeland security policy

The Rise of American Extremism: An Exploratory Analysis of American Religious and Political Extremism from Presidents Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama: 1977-2016

The purpose of this quantitative case study was to address the problem of domestic terrorism facing the United States. This concern led to a comprehensive examination of historical documents that focused on the temporal evolution of the problem beginning with the Carter administration and continuing through the Obama administration. The conceptual foundation centered on resolving the research question and validating three hypotheses directed at qualifying the escalation of domestic incidents of terrorism. This led to developing a behavioral model to assist law enforcement agencies in combating the issue of domestic terrorism. Bivariate and clustering statistical analysis validated the data while qualifying the demographics of the various typologies of U.S. domestic terrorists. The use of case study analysis, which drew on historical documents for evidence, considered the evolution of various groups, motivations, their ideologies, and goals. These variables were compared to successes and failures of relevant federal policies. The lack of understanding and oversight that led to an escalation of the number of incidents was also evaluated. Using ethical and scientific guidelines and protocols, the study’s findings promote the need for future research and highlight the dangers of repeating the past. By developing a behavioral model, this study gives law enforcement a valuable tool for resolving domestic terrorism. Additional considerations relate to future policy implications and the course of future research

The multifinality of vulnerability indicators in lone-actor terrorism

To move beyond current aggregate and static conclusions regarding radicalisation and subsequent terrorist behaviour, empirical research should look to criminological models which are influenced by the life-course perspective. Current UK government policy designed to prevent radicalisation and terrorist engagement look to outputs from criminological perspectives to inform policy and practice. However, the guidance suffers from a lack of specificity as to the major concept of ‘vulnerability to radicalisation’, and what this incorporates. This investigation uses sequential analyses to add to our understanding of ‘vulnerability’ in the specific context of lone-actor terrorism. The statistical method bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative approaches and provides a series of empirical outputs which visualise typical lone-actor terrorist trajectories through the discrete stages of radicalisation, attack planning and attack commission

Three Essays on the Determinants of Radicalization: A Case of North-Western Pakistan

Radicalization is as a formidable challenge for several nations. While radicalization continues to flare across the world, empirical evidence and consensus regarding its determinants remain scarce. This cumulative dissertation aims to contribute to understanding the determinants of radicalization based on three research papers. The first paper undertakes a systematic review of the existing scientific literature on radicalization. The second paper empirically tests the predictive power of the most plausible factors identified in the systematic review. The third paper empirically investigates the existence of non-linearities in the relationship between radicalization and socioeconomic factors.:1. Introduction 2. Understanding the Determinants of Radicalization: A Systematic Review 3. An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of Radicalization: Evidence from North-Western Pakistan 4. Socioeconomic Factors and Radicalization in Pakistan: A Non-Linear Exploration 5. Reference

The Putative Effect of Identity on Extremist Radicalization:A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies

Despite its prominence in radicalization models, we lack an integrated understanding of how, when, and to what extent identity causes or prevents extremist radicalization. In this systematic review we therefore inventoried the various conceptualizations of identity as determinant of extremist radicalization in quantitative research, and evaluated their effect. Synthesis of 75 studies revealed that the majority examined social and contextual identity concepts, around a quarter investigated identity needs and motives, and only two tested personal and developmental identity concepts. While the link between some identity concepts and extremism enjoy good empirical support, many are in need of further scrutiny.</p

What are the roles of the Internet in terrorism? Measuring online behaviours of convicted UK terrorists

Using a unique dataset of 227 convicted UK-based terrorists, this report fills a large gap in the existing literature. Using descriptive statistics, we first outline the degree to which various online activities related to radicalisation were present within the sample. The results illustrate the variance in behaviours often attributed to ‘online radicalisation’. Second, we conducted a smallest-space analysis to illustrate two clusters of commonly co-occurring behaviours that delineate behaviours from those directly associated with attack planning. Third, we conduct a series of bivariate and multivariate analyses to question whether those who interact virtually with like-minded individuals or learn online, exhibit markedly different experiences (e.g. radicalisation, event preparation, attack outcomes) than those who do not

A Quantitative Research Study on Probability Risk Assessments in Critical Infrastructure and Homeland Security

This dissertation encompassed quantitative research on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) elements in homeland security and the impact on critical infrastructure and key resources. There are 16 crucial infrastructure sectors in homeland security that represent assets, system networks, virtual and physical environments, roads and bridges, transportation, and air travel. The design included the Bayes theorem, a process used in PRAs when determining potential or probable events, causes, outcomes, and risks. The goal is to mitigate the effects of domestic terrorism and natural and man-made disasters, respond to events related to critical infrastructure that can impact the United States, and help protect and secure natural gas pipelines and electrical grid systems. This study provides data from current risk assessment trends in PRAs that can be applied and designed in elements of homeland security and the criminal justice system to help protect critical infrastructures. The dissertation will highlight the aspects of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP). In addition, this framework was employed to examine the criminal justice triangle, explore crime problems and emergency preparedness solutions to protect critical infrastructures, and analyze data relevant to risk assessment procedures for each critical infrastructure identified. Finally, the study addressed the drivers and gaps in research related to protecting and securing natural gas pipelines and electrical grid systems

Rethinking Social Media and Extremism

Terrorism, global pandemics, climate change, wars and all the major threats of our age have been targets of online extremism. The same social media occupying the heartland of our social world leaves us vulnerable to cybercrime, electoral fraud and the 'fake news' fuelling the rise of far-right violence and hate speech. In the face of widespread calls for action, governments struggle to reform legal and regulatory frameworks designed for an analogue age. And what of our rights as citizens? As politicians and lawyers run to catch up to the future as it disappears over the horizon, who guarantees our right to free speech, to free and fair elections, to play video games, to surf the Net, to believe ‘fake news’? Rethinking Social Media and Extremism offers a broad range of perspectives on violent extremism online and how to stop it. As one major crisis follows another and a global pandemic accelerates our turn to digital technologies, attending to the issues raised in this book becomes ever more urgent

The Socialization Of Terrorism In Canada

The academic and institutional battlefield is littered with the best intentions of those attempting to bring a universally recognized definition to the term ‘terrorism’.  The concept of ‘where you sit is where you stand’ certainly applies to such endeavors.  In addition to considering how best to integrate such fundamental questions as who, what, where, why and how in a definition of the term, attempts have been confounded and complicated by where definitional efforts have been centered within a particular community. Do you adopt a social science or quasi-scientific approach?  From a jurisprudence and law enforcement perspective? Terrorist financing? Intent and motivation? Psychological drivers and personal profiles of individual terrorists? Organizational structures?  Cultural and anthropological approaches? Rationality and mental health? Historical considerations? Critical study interpretations?  All this has made for terrorism being a contested concept over the decades. As observed by Schmid and Jongman, and as we shall explore, “The nature of terrorism is not inherent in the violent act itself. One and the same act can be terrorist or not, depending on the intention and circumstances.”  But how terrorism is defined by whatever community is not a trivial issue. Definitions carry political and policy consequences that govern the counterterrorism space and how threats and risks are articulated going forward.  How the threat environment endures is often just as much an outcome of how a state elects to respond to the threat, as it is the agenda of terrorist entities.  And terrorism charges cannot be prosecuted if there is not at least some notion of how motivations, intentions and acts are defined in statutes. Received: 01-05-2024 Revised: 01-14-202