An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Gated Ensemble of Spatio-temporal Mixture of Experts for Multi-task Learning in Ride-hailing System

Designing spatio-temporal forecasting models separately in a task-wise and city-wise manner poses a burden for the expanding transportation network companies. Therefore, a multi-task learning architecture is proposed in this study by developing gated ensemble of spatio-temporal mixture of experts network (GESME-Net) with convolutional recurrent neural network (CRNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN) for simultaneously forecasting spatio-temporal tasks in a city as well as across different cities. Furthermore, a task adaptation layer is integrated with the architecture for learning joint representation in multi-task learning and revealing the contribution of the input features utilized in prediction. The proposed architecture is tested with data from Didi Chuxing for: (i) simultaneously forecasting demand and supply-demand gap in Beijing, and (ii) simultaneously forecasting demand across Chengdu and Xian. In both scenarios, models from our proposed architecture outperformed the single-task and multi-task deep learning benchmarks and ensemble-based machine learning algorithms.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2012.0886

How machine learning informs ride-hailing services: A survey

In recent years, online ride-hailing services have emerged as an important component of urban transportation system, which not only provide significant ease for residents’ travel activities, but also shape new travel behavior and diversify urban mobility patterns. This study provides a thorough review of machine-learning-based methodologies for on-demand ride-hailing services. The importance of on-demand ride-hailing services in the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban traffic is first highlighted, with machine-learning-based macro-level ride-hailing research demonstrating its value in guiding the design, planning, operation, and control of urban intelligent transportation systems. Then, the research on travel behavior from the perspective of individual mobility patterns, including carpooling behavior and modal choice behavior, is summarized. In addition, existing studies on order matching and vehicle dispatching strategies, which are among the most important components of on-line ride-hailing systems, are collected and summarized. Finally, some of the critical challenges and opportunities in ride-hailing services are discussed

A Systematic Literature Review on Machine Learning in Shared Mobility

Shared mobility has emerged as a sustainable alternative to both private transportation and traditional public transport, promising to reduce the number of private vehicles on roads while offering users greater flexibility. Today, urban areas are home to a myriad of innovative services, including car-sharing, ride-sharing, and micromobility solutions like moped-sharing, bike-sharing, and e-scooter-sharing. Given the intense competition and the inherent operational complexities of shared mobility systems, providers are increasingly seeking specialized decision-support methodologies to boost operational efficiency. While recent research indicates that advanced machine learning methods can tackle the intricate challenges in shared mobility management decisions, a thorough evaluation of existing research is essential to fully grasp its potential and pinpoint areas needing further exploration. This paper presents a systematic literature review that specifically targets the application of Machine Learning for decision-making in Shared Mobility Systems. Our review underscores that Machine Learning offers methodological solutions to specific management challenges crucial for the effective operation of Shared Mobility Systems. We delve into the methods and datasets employed, spotlight research trends, and pinpoint research gaps. Our findings culminate in a comprehensive framework of Machine Learning techniques designed to bolster managerial decision-making in addressing challenges specific to Shared Mobility across various levels

Understanding and Modeling Taxi Demand Using Time Series Models

The spatio-temporal variations in demand for transportation, particularly taxis, are impacted by various factors such as commuting, weather, road work and closures, disruption in transit services, etc. Identifying the factors that influence taxi demand and understanding its dynamic provide planners with the information necessary to improve the transportation systems and also help drivers to reduce their vacant time. This dissertation focuses on important factors affecting the demand. In the beginning, the impact of price changes on the demand is studied. Chapter One discusses how the seasonal effects and trends are removed from the demand, and then price elasticity for demand is calculated as a measure to quantify the impact of each factor. Furthermore, the first chapter provides elasticity values for the New York City and each of the five boroughs, and studies the relationship between these values and some socio-economic characteristics. The second part of this dissertation studies the demand of taxi and how it is affected by other public transportation modes and weather. This demand modeling technique utilizes a combination of time series and linear regression models. The proposed method is then applied to yellow cab data in New York City. The pick-up points of yellow cab data in April, May, and June of 2014 are considered and aggregated every hour. The results show a significant correlation between taxi demand and demand for other transportation modes, as well as weather conditions. It is shown that combining time series models with linear regression will improve the performance of the model. This study then follows by working on the time series models and considering the spatial variation of the demand. To understand the user demand for taxis through space and time, a generalized spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) model is proposed. In order to deal with the high dimensionality of the model, LASSO-type penalized methods are proposed to tackle the parameter estimation. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is measured using the out-of-sample mean squared prediction error (MSPE), and it is found that the proposed models outperform other alternative models such as vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The proposed modeling framework has an easily interpretable parameter structure and can feasibly be applied by taxi operators. The efficiency of the proposed model shows advantages for model estimation in real-time applications. Furthermore, this dissertation studies the demand for e-hailing services which are growing rapidly especially in large cities. Similar to taxi demand, Uber demand is not distributed uniformly, either spatially or temporally, and this study proposes using spatio-temporal models to predict Uber demand as well. Moreover, the prediction performances of several statistical models are compared with each other: a) one temporal model (vector autoregressive (VAR)), b) two proposed spatio-temporal models (spatial-temporal autoregressive (STAR), c) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator applied on STAR (LASSO-STAR)). They are compared in different scenarios (based on the number of time and space lags), and for both peak and off-peak periods (rush hours and non-rush hours). This section additionally proposes different weighting matrices to improve the performance of the model. The results show the need to consider spatial models for e-hailing services and demonstrate significant improvement in the prediction of demand using the two proposed models

D3P : Data-driven demand prediction for fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems

The future of urban mobility is expected to be shared and electric. It is not only a more sustainable paradigm that can reduce emissions, but can also bring societal benefits by offering a more affordable on-demand mobility option to the general public. Many car sharing service providers as well as automobile manufacturers are entering the competition by expanding both their EV fleets and renting/returning station networks, aiming to seize a share of the market and to bring car sharing to the zero emissions level. During their fast expansion, one determinant for success is the ability of predicting the demand of stations as the entire system is growing continuously. There are several challenges in this demand prediction problem: First, unlike most of the existing work which predicts demand only for static systems or at few stages of expansion, in the real world we often need to predict the demand as or even before stations are being deployed or closed, to provide information and decision support. Second, for the new stations to be deployed, there is no historical data available to help the prediction of their demand. Finally, the impact of deploying/closing stations on the other stations in the system can be complex. To address these challenges, we formulate the demand prediction problem in the context of fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems, and propose a data-driven demand prediction approach which aims to model the expansion dynamics directly from the data. We use a local temporal encoding process to handle the historical data for each existing station, and a dynamic spatial encoding process to take correlations between stations into account with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCN). The encoded features are fed to a multi-scale predictor, which forecasts both the long-term expected demand of the stations and their instant demand in the near future. We evaluate the proposed approach with real-world data collected from a major EV sharing platform for one year. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state of the art, showing up to three-fold performance gain in predicting demand for the expanding EV sharing systems

Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining for Shared Mobility and Connected and Automated Vehicle Applications

The rapid development of shared mobility and connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) has not only brought new intelligent transportation system (ITS) challenges with the new types of mobility, but also brought a huge opportunity to accelerate the connectivity and informatization of transportation systems, particularly when we consider all the new forms of data that is becoming available. The primary challenge is how to take advantage of the enormous amount of data to discover knowledge, build effective models, and develop impactful applications. With the theoretical and experimental progress being made over the last two decades, data mining and machine learning technologies have become key approaches for parsing data, understanding information, and making informed decisions, especially as the rise of deep learning algorithms bringing new levels of performance to the analysis of large datasets. The combination of data mining and ITS can greatly benefit research and advances in shared mobility and CAVs.This dissertation focuses on knowledge discovery and data mining for shared mobility and CAV applications. When considering big data associated with shared mobility operations and CAV research, data mining techniques can be customized with transportation knowledge to initially parse the data. Then machine learning methods can be used to model the parsed data to elicit hidden knowledge. Finally, the discovered knowledge and extracted information can help in the development of effective shared mobility and CAV applications to achieve the goals of a safer, faster, and more eco-friendly transportation systems.In this dissertation, there are four main sections that are addressed. First, new methodologies are introduced for extracting lane-level road features from rough crowdsourced GPS trajectories via data mining, which is subsequently used as the fundamental information for CAV applications. The proposed method results in decimeter level accuracy, which satisfies the positioning needs for many macroscopic and microscopic shared mobility and CAV applications. Second, macroscopic ride-hailing service big data has been analyzed for demand prediction, vehicle operation, and system efficiency monitoring. The proposed deep learning algorithms increase the ride-hailing demand prediction accuracy to 80% and can help the fleet dispatching system reduce 30% of vacant travel distance. Third, microscopic automated vehicle perception data has been analyzed for a real-time computer vision system that can be used for lane change behavior detection. The proposed deep learning design combines the residual neural network image input with time serious control data and reaches 95% of lane change behavior prediction accuracy. Last but not least, new ride sharing and CAV applications have been simulated in a behavior modeling framework to analyze the impact of mobility and energy consumption, which addresses key barriers by quantifying the transportation system-wide mobility, energy and behavior impacts from new mobility technologies using real-world data

Advances in Public Transport Platform for the Development of Sustainability Cities

Modern societies demand high and varied mobility, which in turn requires a complex transport system adapted to social needs that guarantees the movement of people and goods in an economically efficient and safe way, but all are subject to a new environmental rationality and the new logic of the paradigm of sustainability. From this perspective, an efficient and flexible transport system that provides intelligent and sustainable mobility patterns is essential to our economy and our quality of life. The current transport system poses growing and significant challenges for the environment, human health, and sustainability, while current mobility schemes have focused much more on the private vehicle that has conditioned both the lifestyles of citizens and cities, as well as urban and territorial sustainability. Transport has a very considerable weight in the framework of sustainable development due to environmental pressures, associated social and economic effects, and interrelations with other sectors. The continuous growth that this sector has experienced over the last few years and its foreseeable increase, even considering the change in trends due to the current situation of generalized crisis, make the challenge of sustainable transport a strategic priority at local, national, European, and global levels. This Special Issue will pay attention to all those research approaches focused on the relationship between evolution in the area of transport with a high incidence in the environment from the perspective of efficiency