Robust State Space Filtering under Incremental Model Perturbations Subject to a Relative Entropy Tolerance

This paper considers robust filtering for a nominal Gaussian state-space model, when a relative entropy tolerance is applied to each time increment of a dynamical model. The problem is formulated as a dynamic minimax game where the maximizer adopts a myopic strategy. This game is shown to admit a saddle point whose structure is characterized by applying and extending results presented earlier in [1] for static least-squares estimation. The resulting minimax filter takes the form of a risk-sensitive filter with a time varying risk sensitivity parameter, which depends on the tolerance bound applied to the model dynamics and observations at the corresponding time index. The least-favorable model is constructed and used to evaluate the performance of alternative filters. Simulations comparing the proposed risk-sensitive filter to a standard Kalman filter show a significant performance advantage when applied to the least-favorable model, and only a small performance loss for the nominal model

Formal methods paradigms for estimation and machine learning in dynamical systems

Formal methods are widely used in engineering to determine whether a system exhibits a certain property (verification) or to design controllers that are guaranteed to drive the system to achieve a certain property (synthesis). Most existing techniques require a large amount of accurate information about the system in order to be successful. The methods presented in this work can operate with significantly less prior information. In the domain of formal synthesis for robotics, the assumptions of perfect sensing and perfect knowledge of system dynamics are unrealistic. To address this issue, we present control algorithms that use active estimation and reinforcement learning to mitigate the effects of uncertainty. In the domain of cyber-physical system analysis, we relax the assumption that the system model is known and identify system properties automatically from execution data. First, we address the problem of planning the path of a robot under temporal logic constraints (e.g. "avoid obstacles and periodically visit a recharging station") while simultaneously minimizing the uncertainty about the state of an unknown feature of the environment (e.g. locations of fires after a natural disaster). We present synthesis algorithms and evaluate them via simulation and experiments with aerial robots. Second, we develop a new specification language for tasks that require gathering information about and interacting with a partially observable environment, e.g. "Maintain localization error below a certain level while also avoiding obstacles.'' Third, we consider learning temporal logic properties of a dynamical system from a finite set of system outputs. For example, given maritime surveillance data we wish to find the specification that corresponds only to those vessels that are deemed law-abiding. Algorithms for performing off-line supervised and unsupervised learning and on-line supervised learning are presented. Finally, we consider the case in which we want to steer a system with unknown dynamics to satisfy a given temporal logic specification. We present a novel reinforcement learning paradigm to solve this problem. Our procedure gives "partial credit'' for executions that almost satisfy the specification, which can lead to faster convergence rates and produce better solutions when the specification is not satisfiable

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Statistical Machine Learning for Modeling and Control of Stochastic Structured Systems

Machine learning and its various applications have driven innovation in robotics, synthetic perception, and data analytics. The last decade especially has experienced an explosion in interest in the research and development of artificial intelligence with successful adoption and deployment in some domains. A significant force behind these advances has been an abundance of data and the evolution of simple computational models and tools with a capacity to scale up to massive learning automata. Monolithic neural networks with billions of parameters that rely on automatic differentiation are a prime example of the significant role efficient computation has had on supercharging the ability of well-established representations to extract intelligent patterns from unstructured data. Nonetheless, despite the strides taken in the digital domains of vision and natural language processing, applications of optimal control and robotics significantly trail behind and have not been able to capitalize as much on the latest trends of machine learning. This discrepancy can be explained by the limited transferability of learning concepts that rely on full differentiability to the heavily structured physical and human interaction environments, not to mention the substantial cost of data generation on real physical systems. Therefore, these factors severely limit the application scope of loosely-structured over-parameterized data-crunching machines in the mechanical realm of robot learning and control. This thesis investigates modeling paradigms of hierarchical and switching systems to tackle some of the previously highlighted issues. This research direction is motivated by insights into universal function approximation via local cooperating units and the promise of inherently regularized representations through explicit structural design. Moreover, we explore ideas from robust optimization that address model mismatch issues in statistical models and outline how related methods may be used to improve the tractability of state filtering in stochastic hybrid systems. In Chapter 2, we consider hierarchical modeling for general regression problems. The presented approach is a generative probabilistic interpretation of local regression techniques that approximate nonlinear functions through a set of local linear or polynomial units. The number of available units is crucial in such models, as it directly balances representational power with the parametric complexity. This ambiguity is addressed by using principles from Bayesian nonparametrics to formulate flexible models that adapt their complexity to the data and can potentially encompass an infinite number of components. To learn these representations, we present two efficient variational inference techniques that scale well with data and highlight the advantages of hierarchical infinite local regression models, such as dealing with non-smooth functions, mitigating catastrophic forgetting, and enabling parameter sharing and fast predictions. Finally, we validate this approach on a set of large inverse dynamics datasets and test the learned models in real-world control scenarios. Chapter 3 addresses discrete-continuous hybrid modeling and control for stochastic dynamical systems, which implies dealing with time-series data. In this scenario, we develop an automatic system identification technique that decomposes nonlinear systems into hybrid automata and leverages the resulting structure to learn switching feedback control via hierarchical reinforcement learning. In the process, we rely on an augmented closed-loop hidden Markov model architecture that captures time correlations over long horizons and provides a principled Bayesian inference framework for learning hybrid representations and filtering the hidden discrete states to apply control accordingly. Finally, we embed this structure explicitly into a novel hybrid relative entropy policy search algorithm that optimizes a set of local polynomial feedback controllers and value functions. We validate the overall switching-system perspective by benchmarking the open-loop predictive performance against popular black-box representations. We also provide qualitative empirical results for hybrid reinforcement learning on common nonlinear control tasks. In Chapter 4, we attend to a general and fundamental problem in learning for control, namely robustness in data-driven stochastic optimization. The question of sensitivity has a strong priority, given the rising popularity of embedding statistical models into stochastic control frameworks. However, data from dynamical, especially mechanical, systems is often scarce due to a high extraction cost and limited coverage of the state-action space. The result is usually poor models with narrow validity and brittle control laws, particularly in an ill-posed over-parameterized learning example. We propose to robustify stochastic control by finding the worst-case distribution over the dynamics and optimizing a corresponding robust policy that minimizes the probability of catastrophic failures. We achieve this goal by formulating a two-stage iterative minimax optimization problem that finds the most pessimistic adversary in a trust region around a nominal model and uses it to optimize a robust optimal controller. We test this approach on a set of linear and nonlinear stochastic systems and supply empirical evidence of its practicality. Finally, we provide an outlook on how similar multi-stage distributional optimization techniques can be applied in approximate filtering of stochastic switching systems in order to tackle the issue of exponential explosion in state mixture components. In summation, the individual contributions of this thesis are a collection of interconnected principles for structured and robust learning for control. Although many challenges remain ahead, this research lays a foundation for reflecting on future structured learning questions that strive to combine optimal control and statistical machine learning perspectives for the automatic decomposition and optimization of hierarchical models