A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO). Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm

Training ANFIS Model with an Improved Quantum-Behaved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

This paper proposes a novel method of training the parameters of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Different from the previous works which emphasized on gradient descent (GD) method, we present an approach to train the parameters of ANFIS by using an improved version of quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO). This novel variant of QPSO employs an adaptive dynamical controlling method for the contraction-expansion (CE) coefficient which is the most influential algorithmic parameter for the performance of the QPSO algorithm. The ANFIS trained by the proposed QPSO with adaptive dynamical CE coefficient (QPSO-ADCEC) is applied to five example systems. The simulation results show that the ANFIS-QPSO-ADCEC method performs much better than the original ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, and ANFIS-QPSO methods

Chaotic Quantum Double Delta Swarm Algorithm using Chebyshev Maps: Theoretical Foundations, Performance Analyses and Convergence Issues

Quantum Double Delta Swarm (QDDS) Algorithm is a new metaheuristic algorithm inspired by the convergence mechanism to the center of potential generated within a single well of a spatially co-located double-delta well setup. It mimics the wave nature of candidate positions in solution spaces and draws upon quantum mechanical interpretations much like other quantum-inspired computational intelligence paradigms. In this work, we introduce a Chebyshev map driven chaotic perturbation in the optimization phase of the algorithm to diversify weights placed on contemporary and historical, socially-optimal agents' solutions. We follow this up with a characterization of solution quality on a suite of 23 single-objective functions and carry out a comparative analysis with eight other related nature-inspired approaches. By comparing solution quality and successful runs over dynamic solution ranges, insights about the nature of convergence are obtained. A two-tailed t-test establishes the statistical significance of the solution data whereas Cohen's d and Hedge's g values provide a measure of effect sizes. We trace the trajectory of the fittest pseudo-agent over all function evaluations to comment on the dynamics of the system and prove that the proposed algorithm is theoretically globally convergent under the assumptions adopted for proofs of other closely-related random search algorithms.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 19 table

d-QPSO: A Quantum-Behaved Particle Swarm Technique for Finding D-Optimal Designs With Discrete and Continuous Factors and a Binary Response

Identifying optimal designs for generalized linear models with a binary response can be a challengingtask, especially when there are both discrete and continuous independent factors in the model. Theoreticalresults rarely exist for such models, and for the handful that do, they usually come with restrictive assumptions.In this article, we propose the d-QPSO algorithm, a modified version of quantum-behaved particleswarm optimization, to find a variety of D-optimal approximate and exact designs for experiments withdiscrete and continuous factors and a binary response. We show that the d-QPSO algorithm can efficientlyfind locally D-optimal designs even for experiments with a large number of factors and robust pseudo-Bayesian designs when nominal values for the model parameters are not available. Additionally, we investigaterobustness properties of the d-QPSO algorithm-generated designs to variousmodel assumptions andprovide real applications to design a bio-plastics odor removal experiment, an electronic static experiment,and a 10-factor car refueling experiment. Supplementary materials for the article are available online

Prediction of progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using CT scans atbaseline: A quantum particle swarm optimization - Random forest approach

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a fatal lung disease characterized by an unpredictable progressive declinein lung function. Natural history of IPF is unknown and the prediction of disease progression at the time ofdiagnosis is notoriously difficult. High resolution computed tomography (HRCT) has been used for the diagnosisof IPF, but not generally for monitoring purpose. The objective of this work is to develop a novel predictivemodel for the radiological progression pattern at voxel-wise level using only baseline HRCT scans. Mainly, thereare two challenges: (a) obtaining a data set of features for region of interest (ROI) on baseline HRCT scans andtheir follow-up status; and (b) simultaneously selecting important features from high-dimensional space, andoptimizing the prediction performance. We resolved the first challenge by implementing a study design andhaving an expert radiologist contour ROIs at baseline scans, depending on its progression status in follow-upvisits. For the second challenge, we integrated the feature selection with prediction by developing an algorithmusing a wrapper method that combines quantum particle swarm optimization to select a small number of featureswith random forest to classify early patterns of progression. We applied our proposed algorithm to analyzeanonymized HRCT images from 50 IPF subjects from a multi-center clinical trial. We showed that it yields aparsimonious model with 81.8% sensitivity, 82.2% specificity and an overall accuracy rate of 82.1% at the ROIlevel. These results are superior to other popular feature selections and classification methods, in that ourmethod produces higher accuracy in prediction of progression and more balanced sensitivity and specificity witha smaller number of selected features. Our work is the first approach to show that it is possible to use onlybaseline HRCT scans to predict progressive ROIs at 6 months to 1year follow-ups using artificial intelligence

Improved dynamical particle swarm optimization method for structural dynamics

A methodology to the multiobjective structural design of buildings based on an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is presented, which has proved to be very efficient and robust in nonlinear problems and when the optimization objectives are in conflict. In particular, the behaviour of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) classical algorithm is improved by dynamically adding autoadaptive mechanisms that enhance the exploration/exploitation trade-off and diversity of the proposed algorithm, avoiding getting trapped in local minima. A novel integrated optimization system was developed, called DI-PSO, to solve this problem which is able to control and even improve the structural behaviour under seismic excitations. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the methodology is tested against some benchmark problems. Then a 3-story-building model is optimized under different objective cases, concluding that the improved multiobjective optimization methodology using DI-PSO is more efficient as compared with those designs obtained using single optimization.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version