Most Likely Transformations

We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a cascade of increasingly complex transformation models that can be estimated, compared and analysed in the maximum likelihood framework. Models for the unconditional or conditional distribution function of any univariate response variable can be set-up and estimated in the same theoretical and computational framework simply by choosing an appropriate transformation function and parameterisation thereof. The ability to evaluate the distribution function directly allows us to estimate models based on the exact likelihood, especially in the presence of random censoring or truncation. For discrete and continuous responses, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. A reference software implementation of maximum likelihood-based estimation for conditional transformation models allowing the same flexibility as the theory developed here was employed to illustrate the wide range of possible applications.Comment: Accepted for publication by the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2017-06-1

Quantile Regression Under Random Censoring

No abstract.

Public Policies and the Demand for Carbonated Soft Drinks: A Censored Quantile Regression Approach

Heavy consumption of soda may contribute to obesity, strokes, and cardiac problems. From a health perspective, the distribution of the consumption is at least as important as the mean. Censored as well as ordinary quantile regression techniques were used to estimate the demand for sugary soda based on household data from 1989 to 1999. It was found that heavy drinkers are more price- and expenditure-responsive than are light drinkers. The study shows that increasing the taxes on carbonated soft drinks will lead to a small reduction in consumption for small and moderate consumers and a huge reduction for heavy consumers.soda demand, quantile regression, taxes, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D12, I10,

Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables

We present a simple way to estimate the effects of changes in a vector of observable variables X on a limited dependent variable Y when Y is a general nonseparable function of X and unobservables, and X is independent of the unobservables. We treat models in which Y is censored from above, below, or both. The basic idea is to first estimate the derivative of the conditional mean of Y given X at x with respect to x on the uncensored sample without correcting for the effect of x on the censored population. We then correct the derivative for the effects of the selection bias. We discuss nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the derivative. We also discuss the cases of discrete regressors and of endogenous regressors in both cross section and panel data contexts.Censored regression, Nonseparable models, Endogenous regressors, Tobit, Extreme quantiles

Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables

We present a simple way to estimate the effects of changes in a vector of observable variables X on a limited dependent variable Y when Y is a general nonseparable function of X and unobservables. We treat models in which Y is censored from above or below or potentially from both. The basic idea is to first estimate the derivative of the conditional mean of Y given X at x with respect to x on the uncensored sample without correcting for the effect of changes in x induced on the censored population. We then correct the derivative for the effects of the selection bias. We propose nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the derivative. As extensions, we discuss the cases of discrete regressors, measurement error in dependent variables, and endogenous regressors in a cross section and panel data context.Censored regression, Nonseparable models, Endogenous regressors, Tobit, Extreme quantiles

Set identification with Tobin regressors

We give semiparametric identification and estimation results for econometric models with a regressor that is endogenous, bound censored and selected,called a Tobin regressor. First, we show that true parameter value is set identified and characterize the identification sets. Second, we propose novel estimation and inference methods for this true value. These estimation and inference methods are of independent interest and apply to any problem where the true parameter value is point identified conditional on some nuisance parameter values that are set-identified. By fixing the nuisance parameter value in some suitable region, we can proceed with regular point and interval estimation. Then, we take the union over nuisance parameter values of the point and interval estimates to form the final set estimates and confidence set estimates. The initial point or interval estimates can be frequentist or Bayesian. The final set estimates are set-consistent for the true parameter value, and confidence set estimates have frequentist validity in the sense of covering this value with at least a prespecified probability in large samples. We apply our identification, estimation, and inference procedures to study the effects of changes in housing wealth on household consumption. Our set estimates fall in plausible ranges, significantly above low OLS estimates and below high IV estimates that do not account for the Tobin regressor structure.

A Note on Implementing Box-Cox Quantile Regression

The Box-Cox quantile regression model using the two stage method suggested by Chamberlain (1994) and Buchinsky (1995) provides a flexible and numerically attractive extension of linear quantile regression techniques. However, the objective function in stage two of the method may not exists. We suggest a simple modification of the estimator which is easy to implement. The modified estimator is still pn{consistent and we derive its asymptotic distribution. A simulation study confirms that the modified estimator works well in situations, where the original estimator is not well defined. --Box-Cox quantile regression,iterative estimator

Estimating derivatives in nonseparable models with limited dependent variables

We present a simple way to estimate the effects of changes in a vector of observable variables X on a limited dependent variable Y when Y is a general nonseparable function of X and unobservables. We treat models in which Y is censored from above or below or potentially from both. The basic idea is to first estimate the derivative of the conditional mean of Y given X at x with respect to x on the uncensored sample without correcting for the effect of changes in x induced on the censored population. We then correct the derivative for the effects of the selection bias. We propose nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the derivative. As extensions, we discuss the cases of discrete regressors, measurement error in dependent variables, and endogenous regressors in a cross section and panel data context.