Implicit particle methods and their connection with variational data assimilation

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation that guides the particles to the high-probability regions via a sequence of steps that includes minimizations. We present a new and more general derivation of this approach and extend the method to particle smoothing as well as to data assimilation for perfect models. We show that the minimizations required by implicit particle methods are similar to the ones one encounters in variational data assimilation and explore the connection of implicit particle methods with variational data assimilation. In particular, we argue that existing variational codes can be converted into implicit particle methods at a low cost, often yielding better estimates, that are also equipped with quantitative measures of the uncertainty. A detailed example is presented

Incremental Learning of Nonparametric Bayesian Mixture Models

Clustering is a fundamental task in many vision applications. To date, most clustering algorithms work in a batch setting and training examples must be gathered in a large group before learning can begin. Here we explore incremental clustering, in which data can arrive continuously. We present a novel incremental model-based clustering algorithm based on nonparametric Bayesian methods, which we call Memory Bounded Variational Dirichlet Process (MB-VDP). The number of clusters are determined flexibly by the data and the approach can be used to automatically discover object categories. The computational requirements required to produce model updates are bounded and do not grow with the amount of data processed. The technique is well suited to very large datasets, and we show that our approach outperforms existing online alternatives for learning nonparametric Bayesian mixture models

A Factor Graph Approach to Automated Design of Bayesian Signal Processing Algorithms

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasonin

Extended Object Tracking: Introduction, Overview and Applications

This article provides an elaborate overview of current research in extended object tracking. We provide a clear definition of the extended object tracking problem and discuss its delimitation to other types of object tracking. Next, different aspects of extended object modelling are extensively discussed. Subsequently, we give a tutorial introduction to two basic and well used extended object tracking approaches - the random matrix approach and the Kalman filter-based approach for star-convex shapes. The next part treats the tracking of multiple extended objects and elaborates how the large number of feasible association hypotheses can be tackled using both Random Finite Set (RFS) and Non-RFS multi-object trackers. The article concludes with a summary of current applications, where four example applications involving camera, X-band radar, light detection and ranging (lidar), red-green-blue-depth (RGB-D) sensors are highlighted.Comment: 30 pages, 19 figure

Joint state-parameter estimation of a nonlinear stochastic energy balance model from sparse noisy data

While nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations arise naturally in spatiotemporal modeling, inference for such systems often faces two major challenges: sparse noisy data and ill-posedness of the inverse problem of parameter estimation. To overcome the challenges, we introduce a strongly regularized posterior by normalizing the likelihood and by imposing physical constraints through priors of the parameters and states. We investigate joint parameter-state estimation by the regularized posterior in a physically motivated nonlinear stochastic energy balance model (SEBM) for paleoclimate reconstruction. The high-dimensional posterior is sampled by a particle Gibbs sampler that combines MCMC with an optimal particle filter exploiting the structure of the SEBM. In tests using either Gaussian or uniform priors based on the physical range of parameters, the regularized posteriors overcome the ill-posedness and lead to samples within physical ranges, quantifying the uncertainty in estimation. Due to the ill-posedness and the regularization, the posterior of parameters presents a relatively large uncertainty, and consequently, the maximum of the posterior, which is the minimizer in a variational approach, can have a large variation. In contrast, the posterior of states generally concentrates near the truth, substantially filtering out observation noise and reducing uncertainty in the unconstrained SEBM