Matrix Completion With Variational Graph Autoencoders: Application in Hyperlocal Air Quality Inference

Inferring air quality from a limited number of observations is an essential task for monitoring and controlling air pollution. Existing inference methods typically use low spatial resolution data collected by fixed monitoring stations and infer the concentration of air pollutants using additional types of data, e.g., meteorological and traffic information. In this work, we focus on street-level air quality inference by utilizing data collected by mobile stations. We formulate air quality inference in this setting as a graph-based matrix completion problem and propose a novel variational model based on graph convolutional autoencoders. Our model captures effectively the spatio-temporal correlation of the measurements and does not depend on the availability of additional information apart from the street-network topology. Experiments on a real air quality dataset, collected with mobile stations, shows that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches

Realtime Profiling of Fine-Grained Air Quality Index Distribution using UAV Sensing

Given significant air pollution problems, air quality index (AQI) monitoring has recently received increasing attention. In this paper, we design a mobile AQI monitoring system boarded on unmanned-aerial-vehicles (UAVs), called ARMS, to efficiently build fine-grained AQI maps in realtime. Specifically, we first propose the Gaussian plume model on basis of the neural network (GPM-NN), to physically characterize the particle dispersion in the air. Based on GPM-NN, we propose a battery efficient and adaptive monitoring algorithm to monitor AQI at the selected locations and construct an accurate AQI map with the sensed data. The proposed adaptive monitoring algorithm is evaluated in two typical scenarios, a two-dimensional open space like a roadside park, and a three-dimensional space like a courtyard inside a building. Experimental results demonstrate that our system can provide higher prediction accuracy of AQI with GPM-NN than other existing models, while greatly reducing the power consumption with the adaptive monitoring algorithm

An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Developing a GMDH-type neural network model for spatial prediction of NOx : A case study of Çerkezköy, Tekirdağ

Air pollution-induced issues involve public health, environmental, agricultural and socio-economic aspects. Therefore, decision-makers need low-cost, efficient tools with high spatiotemporal representation for monitoring air pollutants around urban areas and sensitive regions. Air pollution forecasting models with different time steps and forecast lengths are used as an alternative and support to traditional air quality monitoring stations (AQMS). In recent decades, given their eligibility to reconcile the relationship between parameters of complex systems, artificial neural networks have acquired the utmost importance in the field of air pollution forecasting. In this study, different machine learning regression methods are used to establish a mathematical relationship between air pollutants and meteorological factors from four AQMS (A-D) located between Çerkezköy and Süleymanpaşa, Tekirdağ. The model input variables included air pollutants and meteorological parameters. All developed models were used with the intent to provide instantaneous prediction of the air pollutant parameter NOx within the AQMS and across different stations. In the GMDH (group method of data handling)-type neural network method (namely the self-organizing deep learning approach), a five hidden layer structure consisting of a maximum of five neurons was preferred and, choice of layers and neurons were made in a way to minimize the error. In all models developed, the data were divided into a training (%80) and a testing set (%20). Based on R2, RMSE, and MAE values of all developed models, GMDH provided superior results regarding the NOx prediction within AQMS (reaching 0.94, 10.95, and 6.65, respectively for station A) and between different AQMS. The GMDH model yielded NOx prediction of station B by using station A input variables (without using NOx data as model input) with R2, RMSE and MAE values 0.80, 10.88, 7.31 respectively. The GMDH model is found suitable for being employed to fill in the gaps of air pollution records within and across-AQMS

Particulate Matter Sampling Techniques and Data Modelling Methods

Particulate matter with 10 μm or less in diameter (PM10) is known to have adverse effects on human health and the environment. For countries committed to reducing PM10 emissions, it is essential to have models that accurately estimate and predict PM10 concentrations for reporting and monitoring purposes. In this chapter, a broad overview of recent empirical statistical and machine learning techniques for modelling PM10 is presented. This includes the instrumentation used to measure particulate matter, data preprocessing, the selection of explanatory variables and modelling methods. Key features of some PM10 prediction models developed in the last 10 years are described, and current work modelling and predicting PM10 trends in New Zealand—a remote country of islands in the South Pacific Ocean—are examined. In conclusion, the issues and challenges faced when modelling PM10 are discussed and suggestions for future avenues of investigation, which could improve the precision of PM10 prediction and estimation models are presented

Intelligent Calibration and Virtual Sensing for Integrated Low-Cost Air Quality Sensors

This paper presents the development of air quality low-cost sensors (LCS) with improved accuracy features. The LCS features integrate machine learning based calibration models and virtual sensors. LCS performances are analyzed and some LCS variables with low performance are improved through intelligent field-calibrations. Meteorological variables are calibrated using linear dynamic models. While, due to the non-linear relationship to reference instruments, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are calibrated using non-linear machine learning models. However, due to sensor drifts or faults, carbon dioxide (CO2) does not present correlation to reference instrument. As a result, the LCS for CO2 is not feasible to be calibrated. Hence, to estimate the CO2 concentration, mathematical models are developed to be integrated in the calibrated LCS, known as a virtual sensor. In addition, another virtual sensor is developed to demonstrate the capability of estimating air pollutant concentrations, e.g. black carbon, when the physical sensor devices are not available. In our paper, calibration models and virtual sensors are established using corresponding reference instruments that are installed on two reference stations. This strategy generalizes the models of calibration and virtual sensing which then allows LCS to be deployed in field independently with a high accuracy. Our proposed methodology enables scaling-up accurate air pollution mapping appropriate for smart cities.Peer reviewe

A Review of 21st-Century Studies

PM10 prediction has attracted special legislative and scientific attention due to its harmful effects on human health. Statistical techniques have the potential for high-accuracy PM10 prediction and accordingly, previous studies on statistical methods for temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal prediction of PM10 are reviewed and discussed in this paper. A review of previous studies demonstrates that Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks and hybrid techniques show promise for suitable temporal PM10 prediction. A review of the spatial predictions of PM10 shows that the LUR (Land Use Regression) approach has been successfully utilized for spatial prediction of PM10 in urban areas. Of the six introduced approaches for spatio-temporal prediction of PM10, only one approach is suitable for high-resolved prediction (Spatial resolution < 100 m; Temporal resolution ¤ 24 h). In this approach, based upon the LUR modeling method, short-term dynamic input variables are employed as explanatory variables alongside typical non-dynamic input variables in a non- linear modeling procedure

Estimation of PM2.5 concentrations in China using a spatial back propagation neural network

Methods for estimating the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations have been developed but have not yet been able to effectively include spatial correlation. We report on the development of a spatial back-propagation neural network (S-BPNN) model designed specifically to make such correlations implicit by incorporating a spatial lag variable (SLV) as a virtual input variable. The S-BPNN fits the nonlinear relationship between ground-based air quality monitoring station measurements of PM2.5, satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, meteorological synoptic conditions data and emissions data that include auxiliary geographical parameters such as land use, normalized difference vegetation index, elevation, and population density. We trained and validated the S-BPNN for both yearly and seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, principal components analysis was employed to reduce the dimensionality of the data and a grid of neural network models was run to optimize the model design. The S-BPNN was cross-validated against an analogous but SLV-free BPNN model using the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) as statistical measures of goodness of fit. The inclusion of the SLV led to demonstrably superior performance of the S-BPNN over the BPNN with R2 values increasing from 0.80 to 0.89 and with the RMSE decreasing from 8.1 to 5.8 μg/m3. The yearly mean PM2.5 concentration in China during the study period was found to be 41.8 μg/m3 and the model estimated spatial distribution was found to exceed Level 2 of the China Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) enacted in 2012 (>35 μg/m3) in more than 70% of the Chinese territory. The inclusion of spatial correlation upgrades the performance of conventional BPNN models and provides a more accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentrations for air quality monitoring