Improved EMD-Based Complex Prediction Model for Wind Power Forecasting

As a response to rapidly increasing penetration of wind power generation in modern electric power grids, accurate prediction models are crucial to deal with the associated uncertainties. Due to the highly volatile and chaotic nature of wind power, employing complex intelligent prediction tools is necessary. Accordingly, this article proposes a novel improved version of empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) to decompose wind measurements. The decomposed signal is provided as input to a hybrid forecasting model built on a bagging neural network (BaNN) combined with K-means clustering. Moreover, a new intelligent optimization method named ChB-SSO is applied to automatically tune the BaNN parameters. The performance of the proposed forecasting framework is tested using different seasonal subsets of real-world wind farm case studies (Alberta and Sotavento) through a comprehensive comparative analysis against other well-known prediction strategies. Furthermore, to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed framework, different forecast horizons have been considered in different test cases. Several error assessment criteria were used and the obtained results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for wind forecasting compared to other methods for all test cases.© 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineersfi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Agricultural scene understanding

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE field measurement data were radiometrically calibrated. Calibration enabled valid comparisons of measurements from different dates, sensors, and/or locations. Thermal band canopy results included: (1) Wind velocity had a significant influence on the overhead radiance temperature and the effect was quantized. Biomass and soil temperatures, temperature gradient, and canopy geometry were altered. (2) Temperature gradient was a function of wind velocity. (3) Temperature gradient of the wheat canopy was relatively constant during the day. (4) The laser technique provided good quality geometric characterization

K-Means and Alternative Clustering Methods in Modern Power Systems

As power systems evolve by integrating renewable energy sources, distributed generation, and electric vehicles, the complexity of managing these systems increases. With the increase in data accessibility and advancements in computational capabilities, clustering algorithms, including K-means, are becoming essential tools for researchers in analyzing, optimizing, and modernizing power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of over 440 articles published through 2022, emphasizing the application of K-means clustering, a widely recognized and frequently used algorithm, along with its alternative clustering methods within modern power systems. The main contributions of this study include a bibliometric analysis to understand the historical development and wide-ranging applications of K-means clustering in power systems. This research also thoroughly examines K-means, its various variants, potential limitations, and advantages. Furthermore, the study explores alternative clustering algorithms that can complete or substitute K-means. Some prominent examples include K-medoids, Time-series K-means, BIRCH, Bayesian clustering, HDBSCAN, CLIQUE, SPECTRAL, SOMs, TICC, and swarm-based methods, broadening the understanding and applications of clustering methodologies in modern power systems. The paper highlights the wide-ranging applications of these techniques, from load forecasting and fault detection to power quality analysis and system security assessment. Throughout the examination, it has been observed that the number of publications employing clustering algorithms within modern power systems is following an exponential upward trend. This emphasizes the necessity for professionals to understand various clustering methods, including their benefits and potential challenges, to incorporate the most suitable ones into their studies

Wind power forecasting and its applications to the power system

textThe goal of research in this dissertation is to bring more wind resources into the power grid by mitigating the uncertainty of the current wind power, by developing a new algorithm to respond to the fluctuation of the future wind power, and by building additional transmission lines to bring more wind resources from a remote area to the load center. First, in order to overcome the wind power uncertainty, the probabilistic and ensemble wind power forecasting is proposed to increase the forecasting accuracy and to deliver the probability density function of the uncertainty. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the amounts and cost of ancillary services (AS). As the mismatch between the bid and actual amount of delivered energy decreases, the imbalance between supply and demand also decreases. If the forecasting ahead is increased up to 24 hours, accurate wind power forecasting can also help wind farm owners bid the exact amount of wind power in the day ahead (DA) market. Furthermore, wind power owners can use the parametric probabilistic density of error distributions for hedging the price risk and building a better offer curve. Second, a novel algorithm to generate many wind power scenarios as a function of installed capacity of wind power is proposed based on an analysis of the power spectral density of wind power. Scenarios can be used to simulate the power system to estimate the required amount of AS to respond to the fluctuation of future wind power as the installed capacity of wind power increases. Scenarios have statistical characteristics of the future wind power that are regressed as a function of the installed capacity of wind power from the statistical characteristics of the current wind power. This algorithm can generate many possible scenarios to simulate the power system in many different situations. Third, optimal transmission expansion by simulating the power system with the multiple load and wind power scenarios in different locations is planned to prepare the preliminary result to bring more wind resources in remote areas to the load center in Texas. In this process, the geographical smoothing effects of wind power and the stochastic correlation structure between the load and wind power are considered. Furthermore, the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) is used to synthesize load and wind power scenarios to keep their correlation structure. The premise of the GDFM is that a few factors can drive the correlated movements of load and wind power simultaneously, so the scenario generation process is parsimonious.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)

A General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations

Accurate wind power forecasts highly contribute to the integration of wind power into power systems. The focus of the present study is on large-scale offshore wind farms and the complexity of generating accurate probabilistic forecasts of wind power fluctuations at time-scales of a few minutes. Such complexity is addressed from three perspectives: (i) the modeling of a nonlinear and non-stationary stochastic process; (ii) the practical implementation of the model we proposed; (iii) the gap between working on synthetic data and real world observations. At time-scales of a few minutes, offshore fluctuations are characterized by highly volatile dynamics which are difficult to capture and predict. Due to the lack of adequate on-site meteorological observations to relate these dynamics to meteorological phenomena, we propose a general model formulation based on a statistical approach and historical wind power measurements only. We introduce an advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method to account for the different features observed in an empirical time series of wind power: autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and regime-switching. The model we propose is an extension of Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) models with Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) errors in each regime to cope with the heteroscedasticity. Then, we analyze the predictive power of our model on a one-step ahead exercise of time series sampled over 10 min intervals. Its performances are compared to state-of-the-art models and highlight the interest of including a GARCH specification for density forecasts

Clustering and Classification of Multivariate Stochastic Time Series in the Time and Frequency Domains

The dissertation primarily investigates the characterization and discrimination of stochastic time series with an application to pattern recognition and fault detection. These techniques supplement traditional methodologies that make overly restrictive assumptions about the nature of a signal by accommodating stochastic behavior. The assumption that the signal under investigation is either deterministic or a deterministic signal polluted with white noise excludes an entire class of signals -- stochastic time series. The research is concerned with this class of signals almost exclusively. The investigation considers signals in both the time and the frequency domains and makes use of both model-based and model-free techniques. A comparison of two multivariate statistical discrimination techniques, one based on a traditional covariance statistic and one based on a more recently proposed periodogram based statistic, is carried out through simulation study. This investigation validates the utility of the periodogram based statistic over the covariance based statistic. The periodogram based statistic proves more useful in identifying statistical dissimilarities in multidimensional time series than the more traditional statistic. Attention is then focused on using the periodogram based statistic as a distance measure for clustering and classifying time series, which is motivated by the periodogram method\u27s increased discrimination capability. The test statistic is used in both clustering and classification algorithms, and the performance is evaluated though a simulation study. This measure proves capable of grouping like series together while simultaneously separating dissimilar series from one another. Finally, the techniques are adapted to the time-domain where they are used to cluster multidimensional, non-stationary, climatological data. The non-stationary model accounts for seasonal means, seasonal standard deviations, and stochastic components. The statistical approach results in the development of a level-α test for assessing signal equality. This improves upon typical dendrogram techniques by defining a level under which the distance should be considered zero. Climatological time series from the west coast, Gulf of Mexico, and east coast are analyzed using the aforementioned techniques. To complement the time series analysis work, some effort (Appendix A) is focused on improving the bachelor of science in the department of mechanical engineering via the undergraduate laboratories. This is accomplished by identifying desired outcomes and implementing specific improvements in the undergraduate laboratory courses over a period of four years. The effects of these improvements are quantified with survey results. Overall, the improvements are very well received and result in significant increases in student satisfaction

Optimization Techniques for Modern Power Systems Planning, Operation and Control

Recent developments in computing, communication and improvements in optimization techniques have piqued interest in improving the current operational practices and in addressing the challenges of future power grids. This dissertation leverages these new developments for improved quasi-static analysis of power systems for applications in power system planning, operation and control. The premise of much of the work presented in this dissertation centers around development of better mathematical modeling for optimization problems which are then used to solve current and future challenges of power grid. To this end, the models developed in this research work contributes to the area of renewable integration, demand response, power grid resilience and constrained contiguous and non-contiguous partitioning of power networks. The emphasis of this dissertation is on finding solutions to system operator level problems in real-time. For instance, multi-period mixed integer linear programming problem for applications in demand response schemes involving more than million variables are solved to optimality in less than 20 seconds of computation time through tighter formulation. A balanced, constrained, contiguous partitioning scheme capable of partitioning 20,000 bus power system in under one minute is developed for use in time sensitive application area such as controlled islanding