Epidemic growth rates and host movement patterns shape management performance for pathogen spillover at the wildlife–livestock interface

Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife–livestock interface is a key step towards improving global animal health, food security and wildlife conservation. However, predicting the effectiveness of management actions across host–pathogen systems with different life histories is an on-going challenge since data on intervention effectiveness are expensive to collect and results are system-specific.We developed a simulation model to explore how the efficacies of different management strategies vary according to host movement patterns and epidemic growth rates. The model suggested that fast-growing, fast-moving epidemics like avian influenza were best-managed with actions like biosecurity or containment, which limited and localized overall spillover risk. For fast-growing, slower-moving diseases like foot-and-mouth disease, depopulation or prophylactic vaccination were competitive management options. Many actions performed competitively when epidemics grew slowly and host movements were limited, and how management efficacy related to epidemic growth rate or host movement propensity depended on what objectivewas used to evaluatemanagement performance. This framework offers one means of classifying and prioritizing responses to novel pathogen spillover threats, and evaluating current management actions for pathogens emerging at the wildlife–livestock interface. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’

Equations of the End: Teaching Mathematical Modeling Using the Zombie Apocalypse

abstract: Mathematical models of infectious diseases are a valuable tool in understanding the mechanisms and patterns of disease transmission. It is, however, a difficult subject to teach, requiring both mathematical expertise and extensive subject-matter knowledge of a variety of disease systems. In this article, we explore several uses of zombie epidemics to make mathematical modeling and infectious disease epidemiology more accessible to public health professionals, students, and the general public. We further introduce a web-based simulation, White Zed (http://cartwrig.ht/apps/whitezed/), that can be deployed in classrooms to allow students to explore models before implementing them. In our experience, zombie epidemics are familiar, approachable, flexible, and an ideal way to introduce basic concepts of infectious disease epidemiology.The final version of this article, as published in Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education, can be viewed online at: http://www.asmscience.org/content/journal/jmbe/10.1128/jmbe.v17i1.106

Some Remarks about the Complexity of Epidemics Management

Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in fighting epidemics, extended models of epidemics management are required. The necessary extensions consist in a representation of the management loop and the potential frictions influencing the loop. The effects of the non-deterministic frictions can be taken into account by including the measures of robustness and risk in the assessment of management options. Thus, besides of the increased structural complexity resulting from the model extensions, the computational complexity of the task of epidemics management - interpreted as an optimization problem - is increased as well. This is a serious obstacle for analyzing the model and may require an additional pre-processing enabling a simplification of the analysis process. The paper closes with an outlook discussing some forthcoming problems

Let’s not make the same mistake again: A political economy analysis of Sierra Leone’s Cholera and Ebola epidemic responses

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa resulted in calls for universal health coverage and revision of global health governance for emergency response. This political economy analysis identifies structural reasons why Sierra Leone and the international health community failed to respond in a timely and effective manner to the Cholera and Ebola epidemics or to translate learning from the Cholera epidemic to the Ebola response. The analysis considers how structural factors interact with stakeholder institutions’ interests and power dynamics before it identifies potential solutions. We urge national and global decision makers to take concrete action to tackle underlying inequity within the global health system and address the root causes of populations’ vulnerability to future infectious disease outbreaks

Dynamical Patterns of Cattle Trade Movements

Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects and through simplified approximations. By leveraging on the network science approach, here we are able for the first time to fully analyze the longitudinal dataset of Italian cattle movements that reports the mobility of individual animals among farms on a daily basis. The complexity and inter-relations between topology, function and dynamical nature of the system are characterized at different spatial and time resolutions, in order to uncover patterns and vulnerabilities fundamental for the definition of targeted prevention and control measures for zoonotic diseases. Results show how the stationarity of statistical distributions coexists with a strong and non-trivial evolutionary dynamics at the node and link levels, on all timescales. Traditional static views of the displacement network hide important patterns of structural changes affecting nodes' centrality and farms' spreading potential, thus limiting the efficiency of interventions based on partial longitudinal information. By fully taking into account the longitudinal dimension, we propose a novel definition of dynamical motifs that is able to uncover the presence of a temporal arrow describing the evolution of the system and the causality patterns of its displacements, shedding light on mechanisms that may play a crucial role in the definition of preventive actions

Dynamical Patterns of Cattle Trade Movements

Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects and through simplified approximations. By leveraging on the network science approach, here we are able for the first time to fully analyze the longitudinal dataset of Italian cattle movements that reports the mobility of individual animals among farms on a daily basis. The complexity and inter-relations between topology, function and dynamical nature of the system are characterized at different spatial and time resolutions, in order to uncover patterns and vulnerabilities fundamental for the definition of targeted prevention and control measures for zoonotic diseases. Results show how the stationarity of statistical distributions coexists with a strong and non-trivial evolutionary dynamics at the node and link levels, on all timescales. Traditional static views of the displacement network hide important patterns of structural changes affecting nodes' centrality and farms' spreading potential, thus limiting the efficiency of interventions based on partial longitudinal information. By fully taking into account the longitudinal dimension, we propose a novel definition of dynamical motifs that is able to uncover the presence of a temporal arrow describing the evolution of the system and the causality patterns of its displacements, shedding light on mechanisms that may play a crucial role in the definition of preventive actions

북극 지정학의 기후변화

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제협력전공), 2022.2. 신성호.This Paper aims to find out the effect of climate change on geopolitical settings of the Arctic Circle. The paper focused on the fact that Arctic sea-ice and severe cold, the common obstacles of regional maritime traffic and ground access, pointed out by several classical theories, are being reduced by climate change. This led to the research on the classical geopolitics’ change in status in terms of academic and regional strategic dialogues; and changes in geopolitical status of regional states derived from climate change. Qualitative research methodology was chosen in writing the thesis, collecting data on climate change; collecting and reviewing cases and previous publications; and doing comparative research on regional states The paper sees climate change and melting arctic would negatively impact the status of classical geopolitical view on northern Eurasia, although it will not significantly harm the value of classical geopolitical theory as a tool for analyzing issues. It’s also found that melting Arctic provides sufficient strategic interest and incentive for Russia to escape the traditional geopolitical identity as a land-locked ‘Heartland’, which was imposed by Arctic glaciers and containment policies from the outside. The research also identified that Russia, with clear understandings of changing circumstances, is making responses through making geostrategic plans and policy implementations. Additionally, through comparative analysis on strategic capacity and geostrategic planning, the research identified Russia’s relative superiority in Arctic region in strategic perspective. Meanwhile, concerning the future security environment of the Arctic, the paper predicts possible regional conflict and security concerns due to negative factors like: duality in security perspective of opening Arctic; issues in maritime law regarding Arctic territorial claims and freedom of navigation; and increased security dilemma from soured relations between Russia and the West since the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, even though it identifies the existing regional cooperation regimes like the Arctic Council and cases of peaceful conflict resolution. The paper also notes that Russia needs to solve regional human security issues from climate change; problems in its own capacity; and challenges from the outside to maintain its current regional superiority.본 논문은 기후변화가 북극권의 지정학적 상황에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 본 연구는 고전지정학 이론이 공통적으로 지적하는 기존의 북극해의 결빙과 혹한으로 인한 해운교통 및 육상접근의 불리점이 기후변화로 인해 해소되고 있음에 주목하여 이로 인해 초래되는 고전지정학 이론의 학술 및 지역전략담론에서의 위상변화와 북극권 국가의 지정학적 현상변화에 대해 탐구하였다. 논문을 작성함에 있어 본 연구는 질적연구방법을 선택해 기후변화에 대한 자료를 수집하는 한편 역내 지정학 및 국제관계와 관련하여 기존 문헌과 사례, 역내 국가간 비교연구를 실시하였다. 본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 북극권 해빙이 북극권 및 유라시아 북부에 대한 고전지정학적 관점의 위상에 부정적 변화를 초래할 것으로 분석하나 현안분석기재 측면에서의 고전지정학 이론의 가치 그 자체가 크게 훼손되지는 않을 것으로 판단한다. 또 북극권 해빙이 러시아가 기존의 북극 빙하와 외세의 봉쇄정책으로 인해 형성된 해양으로부터 고립된 하트랜드(Heartland) 내륙국이라는 지정학적 정체성에서 탈피하도록 할 충분한 전략적 이해와 유인을 제공하며 러시아가 실제로 관련된 현상변화를 분명히 인식하고 지전략 설정과 정책집행을 통해 대응하고 있음을 확인하였다. 여기에 더해 전략적 역량 및 기타 지전략 요소를 다른 역내국가들과 비교하여 러시아가 북극 지역에서 전략적 비교우위를 가지고 있음을 확인하였다. 한편 본 연구는 북극의 향후 안보상황과 관련하여 비록 북극 이사회 등의 역내 협력을 위한 국제기구 및 제도와 평화적 분쟁해결 사례 등이 존재하지만 북극 개방의 안보적 양면성, 해양법 해석 측면에서 북극권의 영유권 분쟁과 항행의 자유 문제, 2014년 우크라이나 사태 이후 서방국가와 러시아의 관계악화로 인한 안보 딜레마가 증가 등 부정적 요인 때문에 향후 역내 분쟁과 안보불안의 가능성이 있을 것으로 예측한다. 또한 러시아가 현재와 같은 역내 우위를 계속 유지하려면 기후변화로 인한 역내 인간안보문제의 대두와 자체 역량 및 외부의 도전 양면에서 제기되는 문제들을 해소할 수 있어야 할 것이라고 지적한다.Chapter 1 Introduction １ 1.1 Study Background ２ 1.2 Purpose of Research & Research Methodology ５ Chapter 2 Classical Geopolitics and the Arctic ７ 2.1 Mahan's Sea Power ８ 2.1 Mackinder's Heartland １０ 2.3 Spykman's Rimland １２ 2.4 Historical Influence: From the Great Game to the Containment １４ 2.5 Traditional Perception of the Arctic ２０ Chapter 3 Climate Change and Arctic Geopolitics ２１ 3.1 Climate Change ２１ 3.2 Opportunities in the Opening Arctic ２４ 3.3 Geostrategies in Changing Arctic ２８ Chapter 4 Russia: From the Heartland to an Arctic Maritime Power ３５ 4.1 Antrim's View ３５ 4.2 Russia's Arctic: 11 Years from Antrim ３６ 4.3 Russian Challenges ４５ Chapter 5 Possibility of Conflict ４９ 5.1 Continental Shelf and Territorial Disputes ５０ 5.2 Regional Security Dilemma Between Big Powers ５１ 5.3 Freedom of Navigation ５２ Chapter 6 Conclusion ５４ Bibliography ５７ 한국어 초록 ７２석