Modeling the variability of rankings

For better or for worse, rankings of institutions, such as universities, schools and hospitals, play an important role today in conveying information about relative performance. They inform policy decisions and budgets, and are often reported in the media. While overall rankings can vary markedly over relatively short time periods, it is not unusual to find that the ranks of a small number of "highly performing" institutions remain fixed, even when the data on which the rankings are based are extensively revised, and even when a large number of new institutions are added to the competition. In the present paper, we endeavor to model this phenomenon. In particular, we interpret as a random variable the value of the attribute on which the ranking should ideally be based. More precisely, if $p$ items are to be ranked then the true, but unobserved, attributes are taken to be values of $p$ independent and identically distributed variates. However, each attribute value is observed only with noise, and via a sample of size roughly equal to $n$, say. These noisy approximations to the true attributes are the quantities that are actually ranked. We show that, if the distribution of the true attributes is light-tailed (e.g., normal or exponential) then the number of institutions whose ranking is correct, even after recalculation using new data and even after many new institutions are added, is essentially fixed. Formally, $p$ is taken to be of order $n^C$ for any fixed $C>0$, and the number of institutions whose ranking is reliable depends very little on $p$.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOS794 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Tight Upper Bounds for Streett and Parity Complementation

Complementation of finite automata on infinite words is not only a fundamental problem in automata theory, but also serves as a cornerstone for solving numerous decision problems in mathematical logic, model-checking, program analysis and verification. For Streett complementation, a significant gap exists between the current lower bound $2^{\Omega(n\lg nk)}$ and upper bound $2^{O(nk\lg nk)}$, where $n$ is the state size, $k$ is the number of Streett pairs, and $k$ can be as large as $2^{n}$. Determining the complexity of Streett complementation has been an open question since the late '80s. In this paper show a complementation construction with upper bound $2^{O(n \lg n+nk \lg k)}$ for $k = O(n)$ and $2^{O(n^{2} \lg n)}$ for $k = \omega(n)$, which matches well the lower bound obtained in \cite{CZ11a}. We also obtain a tight upper bound $2^{O(n \lg n)}$ for parity complementation.Comment: Corrected typos. 23 pages, 3 figures. To appear in the 20th Conference on Computer Science Logic (CSL 2011

On the limiting behavior of parameter-dependent network centrality measures

We consider a broad class of walk-based, parameterized node centrality measures for network analysis. These measures are expressed in terms of functions of the adjacency matrix and generalize various well-known centrality indices, including Katz and subgraph centrality. We show that the parameter can be "tuned" to interpolate between degree and eigenvector centrality, which appear as limiting cases. Our analysis helps explain certain correlations often observed between the rankings obtained using different centrality measures, and provides some guidance for the tuning of parameters. We also highlight the roles played by the spectral gap of the adjacency matrix and by the number of triangles in the network. Our analysis covers both undirected and directed networks, including weighted ones. A brief discussion of PageRank is also given.Comment: First 22 pages are the paper, pages 22-38 are the supplementary material

Bayesian nonparametric models for ranked data

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the prior specified by a gamma process. We derive a posterior characterization and a simple and effective Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. We develop a time-varying extension of our model, and apply it to the New York Times lists of weekly bestselling books.Comment: NIPS - Neural Information Processing Systems (2012

Existence of an infinite particle limit of stochastic ranking process

We study a stochastic particle system which models the time evolution of the ranking of books by online bookstores (e.g., Amazon). In this system, particles are lined in a queue. Each particle jumps at random jump times to the top of the queue, and otherwise stays in the queue, being pushed toward the tail every time another particle jumps to the top. In an infinite particle limit, the random motion of each particle between its jumps converges to a deterministic trajectory. (This trajectory is actually observed in the ranking data on web sites.) We prove that the (random) empirical distribution of this particle system converges to a deterministic space-time dependent distribution. A core of the proof is the law of large numbers for {\it dependent} random variables