Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines

Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes the five sections (1) data pre-processing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever-growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The present paper, thus, analyzes the existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines to investigate how to automate the design process of forecasting models. Thereby, we consider both Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we firstly present and compare the proposed automation methods for each pipeline section. Secondly, we analyze the automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the literature, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of papers only cover two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large-scale application of time series forecasting

Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines

Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes the five sections (1) data pre-processing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever-growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The present paper, thus, analyzes the existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines to investigate how to automate the design process of forecasting models. Thereby, we consider both Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we firstly present and compare the proposed automation methods for each pipeline section. Secondly, we analyze the automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the literature, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of papers only cover two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large-scale application of time series forecasting

Data Augmentation for Time-Series Classification: An Extensive Empirical Study and Comprehensive Survey

Data Augmentation (DA) has emerged as an indispensable strategy in Time Series Classification (TSC), primarily due to its capacity to amplify training samples, thereby bolstering model robustness, diversifying datasets, and curtailing overfitting. However, the current landscape of DA in TSC is plagued with fragmented literature reviews, nebulous methodological taxonomies, inadequate evaluative measures, and a dearth of accessible, user-oriented tools. In light of these challenges, this study embarks on an exhaustive dissection of DA methodologies within the TSC realm. Our initial approach involved an extensive literature review spanning a decade, revealing that contemporary surveys scarcely capture the breadth of advancements in DA for TSC, prompting us to meticulously analyze over 100 scholarly articles to distill more than 60 unique DA techniques. This rigorous analysis precipitated the formulation of a novel taxonomy, purpose-built for the intricacies of DA in TSC, categorizing techniques into five principal echelons: Transformation-Based, Pattern-Based, Generative, Decomposition-Based, and Automated Data Augmentation. Our taxonomy promises to serve as a robust navigational aid for scholars, offering clarity and direction in method selection. Addressing the conspicuous absence of holistic evaluations for prevalent DA techniques, we executed an all-encompassing empirical assessment, wherein upwards of 15 DA strategies were subjected to scrutiny across 8 UCR time-series datasets, employing ResNet and a multi-faceted evaluation paradigm encompassing Accuracy, Method Ranking, and Residual Analysis, yielding a benchmark accuracy of 88.94 +- 11.83%. Our investigation underscored the inconsistent efficacies of DA techniques, with..

Hydrologic verification: A call for action and collaboration

Traditionally, little attention has been focused on the systematic verification of operational hydrologic forecasts. This paper summarizes the results of forecasts verification from 15 river basins in the United States. The verification scores for these forecast locations do not show improvement over the periods of record despite a number of forecast process improvements. In considering a root cause for these results, the authors note that the current paradigm for designing hydrologic forecast process improvements is driven by expert opinion and not by objective verification measures. The authors suggest that this paradigm should be modified and objective verification metrics should become the primary driver for hydrologic forecast process improvements. ©2007 American Meteorological Society