Complex and dynamic population structures: synthesis, open questions, and future directions

The population structure of an evolutionary algorithm influences the dissemination and mixing of advantageous alleles, and therefore affects search performance. Much recent attention has focused on the analysis of complex population structures, characterized by heterogeneous connectivity distributions, non-trivial clustering properties, and degree-degree correlations. Here, we synthesize the results of these recent studies, discuss their limitations, and highlight several open questions regarding (1) unsolved theoretical issues and (2) the practical utility of complex population structures for evolutionary search. In addition, we will discuss an alternative complex population structure that is known to significantly influence dynamical processes, but has yet to be explored for evolutionary optimization. We then shift our attention toward dynamic population structures, which have received markedly less attention than their static counterparts. We will discuss the strengths and limitations of extant techniques and present open theoretical and experimental questions and directions for future research. In particular, we will focus on the prospects of "active linking,” wherein edges are dynamically rewired according to the genotypic or phenotypic properties of individuals, or according to the success of prior inter-individual interaction

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

A Process Calculus for Spatially-explicit Ecological Models

We propose PALPS, a Process Algebra with Locations for Population Systems. PALPS allows us to produce spatially-explicit, individual-based models and to reason about their behavior. Our calculus has two levels: at the first level we may define the behavior of an individual of a population while, at the second level, we may specify a system as the collection of individuals of various species located in space, moving through their life cycle while changing their location, if they so wish, and interacting with each other in various ways such as preying on each other. Furthermore, we propose a probabilistic temporal logic for reasoning about the behavior of PALPS processes. We illustrate our framework via models of dispersal in metapopulations.Comment: In Proceedings MeCBIC 2012, arXiv:1211.347

Identifying spatial invasion of pandemics on metapopulation networks via anatomizing arrival history

Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical models. Here we propose a new reverse problem, which aims to identify the stochastically spatial spread process itself from observable information regarding the arrival history of infectious cases in each subpopulation. We solved the problem by developing an efficient optimization algorithm based on dynamical programming, which comprises three procedures: i, anatomizing the whole spread process among all subpopulations into disjoint componential patches; ii, inferring the most probable invasion pathways underlying each patch via maximum likelihood estimation; iii, recovering the whole process by assembling the invasion pathways in each patch iteratively, without burdens in parameter calibrations and computer simulations. Based on the entropy theory, we introduced an identifiability measure to assess the difficulty level that an invasion pathway can be identified. Results on both artificial and empirical metapopulation networks show the robust performance in identifying actual invasion pathways driving pandemic spread.Comment: 14pages, 8 figures; Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

Ecological Modelling with the Calculus of Wrapped Compartments

The Calculus of Wrapped Compartments is a framework based on stochastic multiset rewriting in a compartmentalised setting originally developed for the modelling and analysis of biological interactions. In this paper, we propose to use this calculus for the description of ecological systems and we provide the modelling guidelines to encode within the calculus some of the main interactions leading ecosystems evolution. As a case study, we model the distribution of height of Croton wagneri, a shrub constituting the endemic predominant species of the dry ecosystem in southern Ecuador. In particular, we consider the plant at different altitude gradients (i.e. at different temperature conditions), to study how it adapts under the effects of global climate change.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper has been presented in CMC13 (LNCS 7762, pp 358-377, 2013