Alarming signs and symptoms in febrile children in primary care: An observational cohort study in The Netherlands

__Abstract__ Context: Febrile children in primary care have a low risk for serious infection. Although several alarming signs and symptoms are proposed to have predictive value for serious infections, most are based on research in secondary care. The frequency of alarming signs/symptoms has not been established in primary care; however, in this setting differences in occurrence may influence their predictive value for serious infections. Objective: To determine the frequency of alarming signs/symptoms in febrile children in primary care. Design: Observational cohort study. Clinical information was registered in a semi-structured way and manually recoded. Setting: General practitioners' out-of-hours service. Subjects: Face-to-face patient contacts concerning children (aged ≤16 years) with fever were eligible for inclusion. Main outcome measures: Frequency of 18 alarming signs and symptoms as reported in the literature. Results: A total of 10,476 patient contacts were included. The frequency of alarming signs/symptoms ranged from n = 1 (ABC instability; 40°C as reported by the parents; 12.9%) to 8,647 contacts (parental concern; 82.5%). Conclusion: Although the prevalence of specific alarming signs/symptoms is low in primary care, ≥50% of children have one or more alarming signs/symptoms. There is a need to determine the predictive value of alarming signs/symptoms not only for serious infections in primary care, but as well for increased risk of a complicated course of the illness

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department : a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Funding Information: DB, UB, EC, JD, ME, MF, NH, BK, FMT, HM, EL, ML, MP, IRC, FS, MT, CV, SY, DZ and WZ report grants from the European Union. Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme during the study conduct. FS reports a grant from the Slovenian Research Agency outside the submitted work. Funding Information: MP reports a grant from Pfizer and financial support from Pfizer and Sanofi outside the submitted work. MF reports a grant from CSL Behring outside the submitted work. RN reports a grant from the National Institute for Health Research during the study conduct. ME reports financial support from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre based at Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University ng the study conduct. MT is a member of the Advisory Board of MSD and Pfizer, a member of the National Committee on Immunization Practices and a member of the national Scientific Advisory Group for the management of the pandemic. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s)Background: Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow. Methods: The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0–18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Findings: Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84). The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0.95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use. Interpretation: Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow. Funding: European Union, NIHR, NHS.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Qualitative assessment of the role of public health education program on HIV transmission dynamics

© The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.This paper presents a nonlinear deterministic model for assessing the impact of public health education campaign on curtailing the spread of the HIV pandemic in a population. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals that it exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when a certain threshold quantity, known as the 'effective reproduction number' (Reff), is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of BB is that a public health education campaign could fail to effectively control HIV, even when the classical requirement of having the associated reproduction number less than unity is satisfied. Furthermore, an explicit threshold value is derived above which such an education campaign could lead to detrimental outcome (increase disease burden), and below which it would have positive population-level impact (reduce disease burden in the community). It is shown that the BB phenomenon is caused by imperfect efficacy of the public health education program. The model is used to assess the potential impact of some targeted public health education campaigns using data from numerous countries.Kano State Government of Nigeria (N.H.); Natural Science and Engineering Research Council and Mathematics of Information Technology and Complex Systems of Canada (A.B.G.

Ocular sequelae of congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil compared with Europe

Toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis appears to be more severe in Brazil, where it is a leading cause of blindness, than in Europe, but direct comparisons are lacking. Evidence is accumulating that more virulent genotypes of Toxoplasma gondii predominate in South America