An Agent Based Model for the Simulation of Transport Demand and Land Use

Agent based modelling has emerged as a promising tool to provide planners with insights on social behaviour and the interdependencies characterising urban system, particularly with respect to transport and infrastructure planning. This paper presents an agent based model for the simulation of land use and transport demand of an urban area of Sydney, Australia. Each individual in the model has a travel diary which comprises a sequence of trips the person makes in a representative day as well as trip attributes such as travel mode, trip purpose, and departure time. Individuals are associated with each other by their household relationship, which helps define the interdependencies of their travel diary and constrains their mode choice. This allows the model to not only realistically reproduce how the current population uses existing transport infrastructure but more importantly provide comprehensive insight into future transport demands. The router of the traffic micro-simulator TRANSIMS is incorporated in the model to inform the actual travel time of each trip and changes of traffic density on the road network. Simulation results show very good agreement with survey data in terms of the distribution of trips done by transport modes and by trip purposes, as well as the traffic density along the main road in the study area

The urban real-time traffic control (URTC) system : a study of designing the controller and its simulation

The growth of the number of automobiles on the roads in China has put higher demands on the traffic control system that needs to efficiently reduce the level of congestion occurrence, which increases travel delay, fuel consumption, and air pollution. The traffic control system, urban real-time traffic control system based on multi-agent (MA-URTC) is presented in this thesis. According to the present situation and the traffic's future development in China, the researches on intelligent traffic control strategy and simulation based on agent lays a foundation for the realization of the system. The thesis is organized as follows: The first part focuses on the intersection' real-time signal control strategy. It contains the limitations of current traffic control systems, application of artificial intelligence in the research, how to bring the dynamic traffic flow forecast into effect by combining the neural network with the genetic arithmetic, and traffic signal real-time control strategy based on fuzzy control. The author uses sorne simple simulation results to testify its superiority. We adopt the latest agent technology in designing the logical structure of the MA-URTC system. By exchanging traffic flows information among the relative agents, MA-URTC provides a new concept in urban traffic control. With a global coordination and cooperation on autonomy-based view of the traffic in cities, MA-URTC anticipates the congestion and control traffic flows. It is designed to support the real-time dynamic selection of intelligent traffic control strategy and the real-time communication requirements, together with a sufficient level of fault-tolerance. Due to the complexity and levity of urban traffic, none strategy can be universally applicable. The agent can independently choose the best scheme according to the real-time situation. To develop an advanced traffic simulation system it can be helpful for us to find the best scheme and the best switch-point of different schemes. Thus we can better deal with the different real-time traffic situations. The second part discusses the architecture and function of the intelligent traffic control simulation based on agent. Meanwhile the author discusses the design model of the vehicle-agent, road agent in traffic network and the intersection-agent so that we can better simulate the real-time environment. The vehicle-agent carries out the intelligent simulation based on the characteristics of the drivers in the actual traffic condition to avoid the disadvantage of the traditional traffic simulation system, simple-functioned algorithm of the vehicles model and unfeasible forecasting hypothesis. It improves the practicability of the whole simulation system greatly. The road agent's significance lies in its guidance of the traffic participants. It avoids the urban traffic control that depends on only the traffic signal control at intersection. It gives the traffic participants the most comfortable and direct guidance in traveling. It can also make a real-time and dynamic adjustment on the urban traffic flow, thus greatly lighten the pressure of signal control in intersection area. To sorne extent, the road agent is equal to the pre-caution mechanism. In the future, the construction of urban roads tends to be more intelligent. Therefore, the research on road agent is very important. All kinds of agents in MA-URTC are interconnected through a computer network. In the end, the author discusses the direction of future research. As the whole system is a multi-agent system, the intersection, the road and the vehicle belongs to multi-agent system respectively. So the emphasis should be put on the structure design and communication of all kinds of traffic agents in the system. Meanwhile, as an open and flexible real-time traffic control system, it is also concerned with how to collaborate with other related systems effectively, how to conform the resources and how to make the traffic participants anywhere throughout the city be in the best traffic guidance at all times and places. To actualize the genuine ITS will be our final goal. \ud ______________________________________________________________________________ \ud MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Artificial Intelligence, Computer simulation, Fuzzy control, Genetic Algorithm, Intelligent traffic control, ITS, Multi-agent, Neural Network, Real-time

Agent-based Simulation Evaluation of CBD Tolling: A Case Study from New York City

Congestion tollings have been widely developed and adopted as an effective tool to mitigate urban traffic congestion and enhance transportation system sustainability. Nevertheless, these tolling schemes are often tailored on a city-by-city or even area-by-area basis, and the cost of conducting field experiments often makes the design and evaluation process challenging. In this work, we leverage MATSim, a simulation platform that provides microscopic behaviors at the agent level, to evaluate performance on tolling schemes. Specifically, we conduct a case study of the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD) in New York City (NYC) using a fine-granularity traffic network model in the large-scale agent behavior setting. The flexibility of MATSim enables the implementation of a customized tolling policy proposed yet not deployed by the NYC agency while providing detailed interpretations. The quantitative and qualitative results indicate that the tested tolling program can regulate the personal vehicle volume in the CBD area and encourage the usage of public transportation, which proves to be a practical move towards sustainable transportation systems. More importantly, our work demonstrates that agent-based simulation helps better understand the travel pattern change subject to tollings in dense and complex urban environments, and it has the potential to facilitate efficient decision-making for the devotion to sustainable traffic management.Comment: Accepted by 2024 IEEE Forum on Integrated and Sustainable Transportation System

Adaptive Coordination Offsets for Signalized Arterial Intersections using Deep Reinforcement Learning

One of the most critical components of an urban transportation system is the coordination of intersections in arterial networks. With the advent of data-driven approaches for traffic control systems, deep reinforcement learning (RL) has gained significant traction in traffic control research. Proposed deep RL solutions to traffic control are designed to directly modify either phase order or timings; such approaches can lead to unfair situations -- bypassing low volume links for several cycles -- in the name of optimizing traffic flow. To address the issues and feasibility of the present approach, we propose a deep RL framework that dynamically adjusts the offsets based on traffic states and preserves the planned phase timings and order derived from model-based methods. This framework allows us to improve arterial coordination while preserving the notion of fairness for competing streams of traffic in an intersection. Using a validated and calibrated traffic model, we trained the policy of a deep RL agent that aims to reduce travel delays in the network. We evaluated the resulting policy by comparing its performance against the phase offsets obtained by a state-of-the-practice baseline, SYNCHRO. The resulting policy dynamically readjusts phase offsets in response to changes in traffic demand. Simulation results show that the proposed deep RL agent outperformed SYNCHRO on average, effectively reducing delay time by 13.21% in the AM Scenario, 2.42% in the noon scenario, and 6.2% in the PM scenario. Finally, we also show the robustness of our agent to extreme traffic conditions, such as demand surges and localized traffic incidents

Supporting an integrated transportation infrastructure and public space design: A coupled simulation method for evaluating traffic pollution and microclimate

Traditional urban and transport infrastructure planning that emphasized motorized transport has fractured public space systems and worsened environmental quality, leading to a decrease in active travel. A novel multiscale simulation method for supporting an integrated transportation infrastructure and public space design is presented in this paper. This method couples a mesoscale agent-based traffic prediction model, traffic-related emission calculation, microclimate simulations, and human thermal comfort assessment. In addition, the effects of five urban design strategies on traffic pollution and pedestrian level microclimate are evaluated (i.e., a “two-fold” evaluation). A case study in Beijing, China, is presented utilizing the proposed urban modeling-design framework to support the assessment of a series of transport infrastructure and public space scenarios, including the Baseline scenario, a System-Internal Integration scenario, and two External Integration scenarios. The results indicate that the most effective way of achieving an environmentally- and pedestrian- friendly urban design is to concentrate on both the integration within the transport infrastructure and public space system and the mitigation of the system externalities (e.g., air pollution and heat exhaustion). It also demonstrates that the integrated blue-green approach is a promising way of improving local air quality, micro-climatic conditions, and human comfort

Urban flood simulation and integrated flood risk management

Climate change induces the probability of occurring natural disasters; e.g. floods, Sea Level Rise, Green House Gases. Flood is considered one of the most dangerous phenomena that tremendously and dramatically threatening the human being and environment worldwide. Rapid urban growth, demographic explosion, and unplanned land uses have exacerbated the problem of urban flooding, particularly in the cities of China. In addition to that, the concept of flood risk management and adaptation measures and strategies are still missed in the cities’ development future plans. The main objective of this Ph.D. dissertation is to investigate the flood risk analysis and assessment based on flood simulation and adaptive strategies for flood event through two case studies of Changsha city in south-central China. In case study I, fluvial flooding was considered on mesoscale and an MCA-based approach was proposed to assess the integrated flood risk of Changsha central city. HEC-RAS 1-D model was used to simulation the inundation characteristics for hazard analysis based on four risk dimensions: economic, social, environmental, and infrastructural risk. For infrastructural dimension, apart for direct damage on road segments, network analysis method was combined with inundation information and macroscopic traffic simulation to evaluate the impact on traffic volume as well as a decrease of road service level. Closeness centrality weighted with a travel time of pre- and after- flood was compared in order to measure the impact on urban accessibility. Integrated risk values were calculated using various weighting criteria sets. Sobol' indices were used as a tool of spatially-explicit global Uncertainty Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis (UA/SA) for damage models. In case study II, an agent-based modeling approach was proposed to simulate the emergency pluvial flood event caused by a short-time rainstorm in local areas of cities aiming at developing an interactive flood emergency management system capable of interpreting the risk and reduction strategy of the pluvial flood. The simulation integrated an inundation model with microscopic traffic simulation. It also reveals that all agents can benefit significantly from both engineering measures and the only pedestrian obtain relatively more benefits from risk warning with high awareness. The method provided potentials in studies on the adaptive emergency management and risk reduction, help both decision-makers and stakeholders to acquire deeper and comprehensive understanding of the flood risk. This Ph.D. study has investigated holistic methods and models’ selection in flood risk assessment and management to overcome data deficiency and to achieve the integration of different data. The results of the first case study reveal that the integrated methods have proved to be able to improved flood risk analysis and assessment especially for indirect damage of infrastructural system with network features. The global UA/SA based on Sobol' method and visualization with maps enable to gain the spatial distribution of uncertainty for various factors, the validation of damage models, and deeper and more comprehensive understanding of flood risk. Then based on the integrated risk assessment, functions of spatial planning in flood risk management were discussed, potentially providing guidance and support for decision-making. The results of the second case study denote that agent-based modeling and simulation can be effectively utilized for flood emergency management. Two scenarios focusing on specific risk reduction interventions were designed and compared. Engineering measures by improving capability of the drainage system and the surface permeability of waterlogging areas are the most effective means for damage mitigation. High public risk awareness still has great potential benefits of the in the event of emergencies, which can greatly enhance the effectiveness of the official warning. The agent-based modeling and simulation provided an effective method for analyzing the effectiveness of different strategies for reducing flood risk at the local scale and for supporting urban flood emergency management. The case studies also indicate the significance and necessity of establishing a platform and database to realize full sharing and synergies of spatial information resources for flood risk management, which is a vital issue to manage the urban flood risk and take effective measures correspondingly with responding to emergency extreme flood event. Keywords: urban flood; flood risk assessment; network analysis; flood simulation; flood risk managemen

Development of a Transportation Network Model for Complex Economic and Infrastructure Simulations

The intent of this effort is to add a transport network to an agent-based economic simulation model, thereby increasing the fidelity of the economic results reported. The majority of existing agent-based work regarding transportation infrastructures deals with traffic management and urban planning. However, little work has been done in modeling the transport system as a basic infrastructure dependency for an agent-based representation of the economy. In an agent-based modeling environment the transportation component derives its demand from the activities of the agents as they buy and sell goods which require transportation services. The Network Shipper agent was added to allow transportation based on the existing U.S. interstate highway system. The agent determines the shortest path between a buyer and seller and estimates a time of arrival. To represent the dynamic nature of a highway system capacity and speed constraints are imposed on the network. The transportation network was then tested using data for the US milk supply chain. The strongest result of this work is the demonstration that inventory levels in a supply chain must buffer the delivery time uncertainty created when rigorous pursuit of minimum cost supply creates chum in the set of preferred suppliers for a firm. The current geographic distribution of supply and demand, along with variations in the effective time-dependent throughput capacity of the transportation network across the country, creates differential regional sensitivities. In particular, the North Atlantic region is most susceptible to this condition, and as a consequence experiences almost twice the price fluctuation of the South Atlantic region for cheese, despite having half the average supply distance of the south

ONLINE and REAL-TIME TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT and OPERATIONS DECISION SUPPORT WITH INTEGRATED TRAVEL BEHAVIOR and DYNAMIC NETWORK MODELS

The acceleration of urbanization is witnessed all around the world. Both population and vehicle ownership are rapidly growing, and the induced traffic congestion becomes an increasingly pervasive problem in people’s daily life. In 2014, transportation congestion caused $160 billion economic loss in 498 U.S. urban areas, which is 5.5 more than that in 1982. Without effective reactions, this number is expect to grow to$192 billion in 2020. In order to mitigate traffic congestion, many transportation demand management (TDM) strategies (e.g. bus rapid lanes, and flextime policy), and active traffic management (ATM) strategies (e.g. real-time user guidance, and adaptive traffic signal control) have been proposed and implemented. Although TDM and ATM have proved their values in theoretical researches or field implementations, it is still hard for transportation engineers to select the optimal strategy when faced with complex traffic conditions. In the science of transportation engineering, mathematical models are usually expected to help estimate traffic conditions under different scenarios. There have been a number of models that help transportation engineers make decisions. However, many of them are developed for offline use and are not suitable for real-time applications due to computational time issues. With the development of computational technologies and traffic monitoring systems, online transportation network modeling is getting closer and closer to reality. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a large-scale mesoscopic transportation model which is integrated with an agent-based travel behavior model. The ultimate goal is to achieve online (real-time) simulation to estimate and predict the traffic performance of the entire Washington D.C. area. The simulation system is expected to support real-time transportation system managements and operations. One of the most challenging issue for this dissertation is the calibration of online simulation models. Model parameters need to be estimated based on real-time traffic data to reflect the reality. Literature review of previous relevant studies indicates a trade-off between computational speed and calibration accuracy. In order to apply the model onto a real-time horizon, experts usually ignore the inherent mechanism of traffic modeling but rely on fast converging technologies to approximate the model parameters. Differently from previous online transportation simulation approaches, the method proposed in this dissertation focuses more on the mechanism of transportation modeling. With the fundamental understanding of the modeling mechanism, one can quickly determine the gradient of model parameters such that the gap between real-time traffic measures and simulation results is minimized. This research is one of the earliest attempts to introduce both agent-based modeling and gradient-based calibration approach to model real-time large-scale networks. The contribution includes: 1) integrate an agent-based travel behavior model into dynamic transportation network models to enhance the behavior realism; 2) propose a fast online calibration procedure that quickly adjusts model parameters based on real-time traffic data. A number of real-world case studies are illustrated to demonstrate the value of this model for both long-term and real-time applications