An empirical study on the various stock market prediction methods

Investment in the stock market is one of the much-admired investment actions. However, prediction of the stock market has remained a hard task because of the non-linearity exhibited. The non-linearity is due to multiple affecting factors such as global economy, political situations, sector performance, economic numbers, foreign institution investment, domestic institution investment, and so on. A proper set of such representative factors must be analyzed to make an efficient prediction model. Marginal improvement of prediction accuracy can be gainful for investors. This review provides a detailed analysis of research papers presenting stock market prediction techniques. These techniques are assessed in the time series analysis and sentiment analysis section. A detailed discussion on research gaps and issues is presented. The reviewed articles are analyzed based on the use of prediction techniques, optimization algorithms, feature selection methods, datasets, toolset, evaluation matrices, and input parameters. The techniques are further investigated to analyze relations of prediction methods with feature selection algorithm, datasets, feature selection methods, and input parameters. In addition, major problems raised in the present techniques are also discussed. This survey will provide researchers with deeper insight into various aspects of current stock market prediction methods

Three essays on short selling bans, asset pricing and market quality

This Doctoral Thesis includes three essays on short selling bans and their effects on market microstructure, with the SEC Rule 201 as the cornerstone of the three chapters. In chapter one, we examine the current state of the art, identifying a series of methodological shortcomings and present proposals of solutions building on the specific context of the new regulation. In chapter two, we apply the recommendations from chapter one in a daily event study of more than seven years, focusing on price efficiency. Chapter three brings the analysis to a more detailed level, assessing the immediate effects of the regulation from the intradaily perspective. Overall, our assessment show that the Rule 201 short selling ban has significant consequences for asset pricing, price informativeness and the provision of liquidity for affected stocks.Programa de Doctorado en Empresa y Finanzas / Business and Finance por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidenta: Belén Nieto Domenech.- Secretario: Pedro José Serrano Jiménez.- Vocal: Isabel Figuerola-Ferrett

Empirical Findings On Persuasiveness Of Recommender Systems For Customer Decision Support In Electronic Commerce

More and more companies are making online presence by opening online stores and providing customers with company and products information but the overwhelming amount of information also creates information overload for the customers. Customers feel frustrated when given too many choices while companies face the problem of turning browsers into actual buyers. Online recommender systems have been adopted to facilitate customer product search and provide personalized recommendation in the market place. The study will compare the persuasiveness of different online recommender systems and the factors influencing customer preferences. Review of the literature does show that online recommender systems provide customers with more choices, less effort, and better accuracy. Recommender systems using different technologies have been compared for their accuracy and effectiveness. Studies have also compared online recommender systems with human recommendations 4 and recommendations from expert systems. The focus of the comparison in this study is on the recommender systems using different methods to solicit product preference and develop recommendation message. Different from the technology adoption and acceptance models, the persuasive theory used in the study is a new perspective to look at the end user issues in information systems. This study will also evaluate the impact of product complexity and product involvement on recommendation persuasiveness. The goal of the research is to explore whether there are differences in the persuasiveness of recommendation given by different recommender systems as well as the underlying reasons for the differences. Results of this research may help online store designers and ecommerce participants in selecting online recommender systems so as to improve their products target and advertisement efficiency and effectiveness

Big Data Analytics and Information Science for Business and Biomedical Applications

The analysis of Big Data in biomedical as well as business and financial research has drawn much attention from researchers worldwide. This book provides a platform for the deep discussion of state-of-the-art statistical methods developed for the analysis of Big Data in these areas. Both applied and theoretical contributions are showcased

Driving venture capital funding efficiencies through data driven models. Why is this important and what are its implications for the startup ecosystem?

This thesis aims to test whether data models can fit the venture capital funding process better, and if they do fit, can they help improve the venture capital funding efficiency? Based on the reported results, venture capitalists can only see returns in 20% of their investments. The thesis argues that it is essential to help venture capital investment as it can help drive economic growth through investments in innovation. The thesis considers four startup scenarios and the related investment factors. The scenarios are a funded artificial intelligence startup seeking follow-on funding, a new startup seeking first funding, the survivability of a sustainability-focused startup, and the importance of patents for exit. Patents are a proxy for innovation in this thesis. Through quantitative analysis using generalized linear models, logit regressions, and t-tests, the thesis can establish that data models can identify the relative significance of funding factors. Once the factor significance is established, it can be deployed in a model. Building the machine learning model has been considered outside the scope of this thesis. A mix of academic and real-world research has been used for the data analysis of this thesis. Accelerators and venture capitalists also used some of the results to improve their own processes. Many of the models have shifted from a prediction to factor significance. This thesis implies that it could help venture capitalists plan for a 10% efficiency improvement. From an academic perspective, this study focuses on the entire life of a startup, from the first funding stage to the exit. It also links the startup ecosystem with economic development. Two additional factors from the study are the regional perspective of funding differences between Asia, Europe, and the US and that this study would include the recent economic sentiment. The impact of the funding slowdown has been measured through a focus on first funding and longitudinal validations of the data decision before the slowdown. Based on the results of the thesis, data models are a credible alternative and show significant correlations between returns and factors. It is advisable for a venture capitalist to consider these

Essays on economic forecasting using machine learning

This thesis studies the additional value introduced by different machine learning methods to economic forecasting. Flexible machine learning methods can discover various complex relationships in data and are well-suited for analysing so called big data and potential problems therein. Several new extensions to existing machine learning methods are proposed from the viewpoint of economic forecasting. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to predict U.S. economic recession periods with a high-dimensional dataset. A cost-sensitive extension to the gradient boosting machine learning algorithm is proposed, which takes into account the scarcity of recession periods. The results show how the cost-sensitive extension outperforms the traditional gradient boosting model and leads to more accurate recession forecasts. Chapter 3 considers a variety of different machine learning methods when predicting daily returns of the S&P 500 stock market index. A new multinomial approach is suggested, which allows us to focus on predicting the large absolute returns instead of the noisy variation around zero return. In terms of both the statistical and economic evaluation criteria gradient boosting turns out to be the best-performing machine learning method. In Chapter 4, the asset allocation decisions between risky and risk-free assets are determined using a flexible utility maximization based approach. Instead of the merely considered two-step approach where portfolio weights are based on the excess return predictions obtained with statistical predictive regressions, here the optimal weights are found directly by incorporating a custom objective function to the gradient boosting algorithm. The empirical results using monthly U.S. market returns show that the utility-based approach leads to substantial and quantitatively meaningful economic value over the past approaches.Tässä väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan millaista lisäarvoa koneoppimismenetelmät voivat tuoda taloudellisiin ennustesovelluksiin. Joustavat koneoppimismenetelmät kykenevät mallintamaan monimutkaisia funktiomuotoja ja soveltuvat hyvin big datan eli suurten aineistojen analysointiin. Väitöskirjassa laajennetaan koneoppimismenetelmiä erityisesti taloudellisten ennustesovellusten lähtökohdista katsoen. Luvussa 2 ennustetaan Yhdysvaltojen talouden taantumajaksoja käyttäen hyvin suurta selittäjäjoukkoa. Gradient boosting -koneoppimismenetelmää laajennetaan huomioimaan aineiston merkittävä tunnuspiirre eli se, että taantumajaksoja esiintyy melko harvoin talouden ollessa suurimman osan ajasta noususuhdanteessa. Tulokset osoittavat, että laajennettu gradient boosting -menetelmä kykenee ennustamaan tulevia taantumakuukausia huomattavasti perinteisiä menetelmiä tarkemmin. Luvussa 3 hyödynnetään useampaa erilaista koneoppimismenetelmää S&P 500 -osakemarkkinaindeksin päivätuottojen ennustamisessa. Aiemmista lähestymistavoista poiketen tässä tutkimuksessa kategorisoidaan tuotot kolmeen eri luokkaan pyrkimyksenä keskittyä informatiivisempien suurten positiivisten ja negatiivisten tuottojen ennustamiseen. Tulosten perusteella gradient boosting osoittautuu parhaaksi menetelmäksi niin tilastollisten kuin taloudellistenkin ennustekriteerien mukaan. Luvussa 4 tarkastellaan, kuinka perinteisen tuottoennusteisiin nojautuvan kaksivaiheisen lähestymistavan sijaan allokaatiopäätös riskisen ja riskittömän sijoituskohteen välillä voidaan muodostaa suoraan sijoittajan kokeman hyödyn pohjalta. Hyödyn maksimoinnissa käytetään gradient boosting -menetelmää ja sen mahdollistamaa itsemäärättyä tavoitefunktiota. Yhdysvaltojen aineistoon perustuvat empiiriset tulokset osoittavat kuinka sijoittajan hyötyyn pohjautuva salkkuallokaatio johtaa perinteistä kaksivaiheista lähestymistapaa tuottavampiin allokaatiopäätöksiin