Handbook of Computational Intelligence in Manufacturing and Production Management

Artificial intelligence (AI) is simply a way of providing a computer or a machine to think intelligently like human beings. Since human intelligence is a complex abstraction, scientists have only recently began to understand and make certain assumptions on how people think and to apply these assumptions in order to design AI programs. It is a vast knowledge base discipline that covers reasoning, machine learning, planning, intelligent search, and perception building. Traditional AI had the limitations to meet the increasing demand of search, optimization, and machine learning in the areas of large, biological, and commercial database information systems and management of factory automation for different industries such as power, automobile, aerospace, and chemical plants. The drawbacks of classical AI became more pronounced due to successive failures of the decade long Japanese project on fifth generation computing machines. The limitation of traditional AI gave rise to development of new computational methods in various applications of engineering and management problems. As a result, these computational techniques emerged as a new discipline called computational intelligence (CI)

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Novel approach for integrated biomass supply chain synthesis and optimisation

Despite looming energy crises, fossil resources are still widely used for energy and chemical production. Growing awareness of the environmental impact from fossil fuels has made sustainability one of the main focuses in research and development. Towards that end, biomass is identified as a promising renewable source of carbon that can potentially replace fossil resources in energy and chemical productions. Although many researches on converting biomass to value-added product have been done, biomass is still considered underutilised in the industry. This is mainly due to challenges in the logistic and processing network of biomass. An integrated biomass supply chain synthesis and optimisation are therefore important. Thus, the ultimate goal of this thesis is to develop a novel approach for an integrated biomass supply chain. Firstly, a multiple biomass corridor (MBC) concept is presented to integrate various biomass and processing technologies into existing biomass supply chain system in urban and developed regions. Based on this approach, a framework is developed for the synthesis of a more diversified and economical biomass supply chain system. The work is then extended to consider the centralisation and decentralisation of supply chain structure. In this manner, P-graph-aided decomposition approach (PADA) is proposed, whereby it divides the complex supply chain problem into two smaller sub-problems – the processing network is solved via mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, whereas the binaries-intensive logistic network configuration is determined through P-graph framework. As existing works often focus on supply chain synthesis in urban regions with well-developed infrastructure, resources integrated network (RIN) – a novel approach for the synthesis of integrated biomass supply chain in rural and remote regions is introduced to enhance rural economies. This approach incorporates multiple resources (i.e. bioresources, food commodities, rural communities’ daily needs) into the value chain and utilises inland water system as the mode of transport, making the system more economically feasible. It extends the MBC approach for technology selection and adopts vehicle routing problem (VRP) for inland water supply and delivery network. To evaluate the performance of the proposed integrated biomass supply chain system, a FANP-based (fuzzy analytical network process) sustainability assessment tool is established. A framework is proposed to derive sustainability index (SI) from pairwise comparison done by supply chain stakeholders to assess the sustainability of a system. Fuzzy limits are introduced to reduce uncertainties in human judgment while conducting the pairwise comparison. To design a sustainable integrated biomass supply chain, a FANP-aided, a novel multiple objectives optimisation framework is proposed. This approach transforms multiple objective functions into single objective function by prioritising each of the objective through the FANP framework. The multiple objectives are then normalised via max-min aggregation to ensure the trade-off between objectives is performed on the same scale. At the end of this thesis, viable future works of the whole programme is presented for consideration

Characterization and Visualization of Spatial Patterns of Urbanisation and Sprawl through Metrics and Modeling

Characterisation of spatial patterns of urban dynamics of Coimbatore, India is done using temporal remote sensing data of 1989 to 2013 with spatial metrics. Urban morphology at local levels is assessed through density gradients and zonal approach show of higher spatial heterogeneity during late1980’s and early 90’s. Urban expansion picked up at city outskirts and buffer region dominated with large number of urban fragments indicating the sprawl. Urban space has increased from 1.87% (1989) to 21.26 % (2013) with the decline of other land uses particularly vegetation. Higher heterogeneous land use classes during 90’s, give way for a homogeneous landscape (with simple shapes and less edges) indicating the domination of urban category in 2013. Complex landscape with high number of patches and edges in the buffer region indicate of fragmentation due to urban sprawl in the region. Visualisation of urban growth through Fuzzy-AHP-CA model shows that built up area would increase to 32.64% by 2025. The trend points to lack of appropriate regional planning leading to intensification of spatial discontinuity with the unsustainable urban growth

CAREER: Data Management for Ad-Hoc Geosensor Networks

This project explores data management methods for geosensor networks, i.e. large collections of very small, battery-driven sensor nodes deployed in the geographic environment that measure the temporal and spatial variations of physical quantities such as temperature or ozone levels. An important task of such geosensor networks is to collect, analyze and estimate information about continuous phenomena under observation such as a toxic cloud close to a chemical plant in real-time and in an energy-efficient way. The main thrust of this project is the integration of spatial data analysis techniques with in-network data query execution in sensor networks. The project investigates novel algorithms such as incremental, in-network kriging that redefines a traditional, highly computationally intensive spatial data estimation method for a distributed, collaborative and incremental processing between tiny, energy and bandwidth constrained sensor nodes. This work includes the modeling of location and sensing characteristics of sensor devices with regard to observed phenomena, the support of temporal-spatial estimation queries, and a focus on in-network data aggregation algorithms for complex spatial estimation queries. Combining high-level data query interfaces with advanced spatial analysis methods will allow domain scientists to use sensor networks effectively in environmental observation. The project has a broad impact on the community involving undergraduate and graduate students in spatial database research at the University of Maine as well as being a key component of a current IGERT program in the areas of sensor materials, sensor devices and sensor. More information about this project, publications, simulation software, and empirical studies are available on the project\u27s web site (http://www.spatial.maine.edu/~nittel/career/)

Assessing processes of long-term land cover change and modelling their effects on tropical forest biodiversity patterns – a remote sensing and GIS-based approach for three landscapes in East Africa: Assessing processes of long-term land cover change and modelling their effects on tropical forest biodiversity patterns – a remote sensing and GIS-based approach for three landscapes in East Africa

The work describes the processing and analysis of remote sensing time series data for a comparative assessment of changes in different tropical rainforest areas in East Africa. In order to assess the effects of the derived changes in land cover and forest fragmentation, the study made use of spatially explicit modelling approaches within a geographical information system (GIS) to extrapolate sets of biological field findings in space and time. The analysis and modelling results were visualised aiming to consider the requirements of three different user groups. In order to evaluate measures of forest conservation and to derive recommendations for an effective forest management, quantitative landscape-scale assessments of land cover changes and their influence on forest biodiversity patterns are needed. However, few remote sensing studies have accounted for all of the following aspects at the same time: (i) a dense temporal sequence of land cover change/forest fragmentation information, (ii) the coverage of several decades, (iii) the distinction between multiple forest formations and (iv) direct comparisons of different case studies. In regards to linkages of remote sensing with biological field data, no attempts are known that use time series data for quantitative statements of long-term landscape-scale biodiversity changes. The work studies three officially protected forest areas in Eastern Africa: the Kakamega-Nandi forests in western Kenya (focus area) and Mabira Forest in south-eastern Uganda as well as Budongo Forest in western Uganda (for comparison purposes). Landsat imagery of in total eight or seven dates in regular intervals from 1972/73 to 2003 was used. Making use of supervised multispectral image classification procedures, in total, 12 land cover classes (six forest formations) were distinguished for the Kakamega-Nandi forests and for Budongo Forest while for Mabira Forest ten classes could be realised. An accuracy assessment via error matrices revealed overall classification accuracies between 81% and 85%. The Kakamega-Nandi forests show a continuous decrease between 1972/73 and 2001 of 31%, Mabira Forest experienced an abrupt loss of 24% in the late 1970s/early 1980s, while Budongo Forest shows a relatively stable forest cover extent. An assessment of the spatial patterns of forest losses revealed congruence with areas of high population density while a spatially explicit forest fragmentation index indicates a strong correlation of forest fragmentation with forest management regime and forest accessibility by roads. For the Kenyan focus area, three sets of biological field abundance data on keystone species/groups were used for a quantitative assessment of the influence of long-term changes in tropical forests on landscape-scale biodiversity patterns. For this purpose, the time series was extended with another three land cover data sets derived from aerial photography (1965/67, 1948/(52)) and old topographic maps (1912/13). To predict the spatio-temporal distribution of the army ant Dorylus wilverthi and of ant-following birds, GIS operators (i.e. focal and local functions) and statistical tests (i.e. OLS or SAR regression models) were combined into a spatial modelling procedure. Abundance data on three guilds of birds differing in forest dependency were directly extrapolated to five forest cover classes as distinguished in the time series. The results predict declines in species abundances of 56% for D. wilverthi, of 58% for ant-following birds and an overall loss of 47% for the bird habitat guilds, which in all three cases greatly exceed the rate of forest loss (31%). Additional extrapolations on scenarios of deforestation and reforestation confirmed the negative ecological consequences of splitting-up contiguous forest areas but also showed the potential of mixed indigenous forest plantings. The visualisation of the analysis and modelling results produced a mixture of different outcomes. Map series and a matrix of maps both showing species distributions aim to address scientists and decision makers. The results of the land cover change analysis were synthesised in a map of land cover development types for each study area, respectively. These maps are designed mainly for scientists. Additional maps of change, limited to a single class of forest cover and to three dates were generated to ensure an easy-to-grasp communication of the major forest changes to decision makers. Additionally, an easy-to-handle visualisation tool to be used by scientists, decision makers and local people was developed. For the future, an extension of this study towards a more complete assessment including more species/groups and also ecosystem functions and services would be desirable. Combining a framework for land cover simulation with a framework for running empirical extrapolation models in an automated manner could ideally result in a GIS-based, integrated forest ecosystem assessment tool to be used as regional spatial decision support system.Die Arbeit beschreibt die Prozessierung und Analyse von Fernerkundungs-Zeitreihendaten für eine vergleichende Abschätzung von Veränderungen verschiedener tropischer Waldökosysteme Ostafrikas. Um Effekte der Veränderungen bzgl. Landbedeckung und Waldfragmentierung auf Biodiversitätsmuster abzuschätzen, wurden verschiedene räumlich explizite Modellierungssätze innerhalb eines geographischen Informationssystems (GIS) zur räumlichen und zeitlichen Extrapolation biologischer Felderhebungsdaten benutzt. Die Visualisierung der Analyse- und Modellierungsergebnisse erfolgte unter Berücksichtigung der Bedürfnisse von drei verschiedenen Nutzergruppen. Um Waldschutzmaßnahmen zu evaluieren und Empfehlungen für ein effektives Waldmanagement abzuleiten, sind quantitative Abschätzungen von Landbedeckungsveränderungen sowie von deren Einfluss auf tropische Waldbiodiversitätsmuster nötig. Wenige fernerkundungsbasierte Studien haben jedoch bislang alle der folgenden Faktoren berücksichtigt: (i) Informationen zu Veränderungen von Landbedeckung und Waldfragmentierung in dichter zeitlicher Sequenz, (ii) die Abdeckung mehrerer Jahrzehnte, (iii) die Unterscheidung zwischen mehreren Waldformationen, und (iv) direkte Vergleiche von unterschiedlichen Fallstudien. Hinsichtlich Verknüpfungen von Fernerkundung mit biologischen Felddaten sind bisher keine Studien bekannt, die Zeitreihendaten für quantitative Aussagen zu Langzeitveränderungen von Biodiversität auf Landschaftsebene verwenden. Die Arbeit untersucht drei offiziell geschützte Gebiete: die Kakamega-Nandi forests in Westkenia (Hauptuntersuchungsgebiet) sowie Mabira Forest in Südost-Uganda und Budongo Forest in West-Uganda (zu Vergleichszwecken). Es wurden Landsat-Daten für insgesamt acht bzw. sieben Zeitpunkte zwischen 1972/73 und 2003 in ungefähr gleichen Abständen erworben. Mit Hilfe von überwachten, multispektralen Klassifizierungsverfahren wurden für die Kakamega-Nandi forests und Budongo Forest jeweils 12 Landbedeckungsklassen (sechs Waldformationen) und für Mabira Forest zehn Klassen unterschieden. Eine Genauigkeitsprüfung mit Hilfe von Fehlermatrizen ergab Gesamtklassifizierungsgenauigkeiten zwischen 81% und 85%. Die Kakamega-Nandi forests sind durch eine kontinuierliche Waldabnahme von 31% zwischen 1972/73 und 2001 gekennzeichnet, Mabira Forest zeigt einen abrupten Waldverlust von 24% in den späten 1970ern/frühen 1980ern, während die Ergebnisse für Budongo Forest eine relativ stabile Waldbedeckung ausweisen. Während eine Abschätzung der räumlichen Muster von Waldverlusten eine hohe Deckungsgleichheit mit Gebieten hoher Bevölkerungsdichte ergab, deutet die Anwendung eines räumlich expliziten Waldfragmentierungsindexes auf eine starke Korrelation von Waldfragmentierung mit der Art von Waldmanagement sowie mit der Erreichbarkeit von Wald über Straßen hin. Um den Einfluss von Langzeit-Landbedeckungsveränderungen auf Biodiversitätsmuster auf Landschaftsebene für das kenianische Hauptuntersuchungsgebiet quantitativ abzuschätzen wurden drei Datensätze mit biologischen Felderhebungen zur Abundanz von Schlüsselarten/-gruppen verwendet. Zu diesem Zweck wurde die Zeitreihe zunächst um drei weitere Landbedeckungs-Datensätze ergänzt, die aus Luftbildern (1965/67, 1948/(52)) bzw. alten topographischen Karten (1912/13) gewonnen wurden. Zur Vorhersage der raum-zeitlichen Verteilung der Treiberameise Dorylus wilverthi wurden GIS-Operatoren und statistische Tests (OLS bzw. SAR Regressionsmodelle) in einem räumlichen Modellierungsablauf kombiniert. Abundanzdaten von drei sich hinsichtlich ihrer Abhängigkeit von Wald unterscheidenden Vogelgilden wurden direkt auf fünf Waldbedeckungsklassen hochgerechnet, die in der Zeitreihe unterschieden werden konnten. Die Ergebnisse prognostizieren Abundanzabnahmen von 56% für D. wilverthi, von 58% für Ameisen-folgende Vögel und einen Gesamtverlust von 47% für die Vogelgilden, was in allen drei Fällen eine deutliche Überschreitung der Waldverlustrate von 31% darstellt. Zusätzliche Extrapolationen basierend auf Szenarien bestätigten die negativen ökologischen Konsequenzen der Zerteilung zusammenhängender Waldflächen bzw. zeigten andererseits das Potential von Aufforstungen mit einheimischen Arten auf. Die Visualisierung der Analyse- bzw. Modellierungsergebnisse führte zu unterschiedlichen Darstellungen: mit einer Reihe von nebeneinander positionierten Einzelkarten sowie einer Matrix von Einzelkarten, die jeweils Artenverteilungen zeigen, sollen Wissenschaftler und Entscheidungsträger angesprochen werden. Aus den Ergebnissen der Landbedeckungsanalyse für die drei Untersuchungsgebiete wurden Landbedeckungsveränderungstypen generiert und jeweils in einer synthetischen Karte dargestellt, die hauptsächlich für Wissenschaftler gedacht sind. Um die wesentlichen Waldveränderungen auch auf einfache Weise zu den Entscheidungsträgern zu kommunizieren, wurden zusätzliche Karten erstellt, die nur eine aggregierte Klasse „Waldbedeckung“ zeigen und jeweils auf drei Zeitschritte der Zeitreihen begrenzt sind. Zusätzlich wurde ein leicht zu bedienendes Visualisierungstool entwickelt, das für Wissenschaftler, Entscheidungsträger und die lokale Bevölkerung gedacht ist. Für die Zukunft wäre eine umfassendere Abschätzung unter Berücksichtigung zusätzlicher Arten/-gruppen sowie auch Ökosystemfunktionen und –dienstleistungen wünschenswert. Die Verknüpfung einer Applikation zur Landbedeckungsmodellierung mit einer Applikation zur Ausführung von empirischen Extrapolationsmodellen (in stärkerem Maße automatisiert als in dieser Arbeit) könnte im Idealfall in ein GIS-basiertes Tool zur integrativen Bewertung von Waldökosystemen münden, das dann als räumliches Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem verwendet werden könnte

Spatio-temporal patterns of colony distribution in monodomous and polydomous species of North African desert ants, genus Cataglyphis

Summary: Two monogynous species of North African desert ants belonging to the formicine genus Cataglyphis exhibit extremely different habitat preferences, population densities, and population structures. C. fortis is the only Cataglyphis species within the salt-pan flats of the Algerian and Tunisian chotts and sebkhas, whereas C. bicolor, alongside C. albicans and C. ruber, inhabits the nutritionally richer low-shrub semi-deserts surrounding the salt pans. We present a comparative study of the spatio-temporal patterns of colony distribution of the two monogynous species over periods of at least 5 (maximally 15) years. In C. fortis low population densities (0.5 kg body mass per km2) and, correspondingly, large inter-nest distances (40.6 m mean nearest neighbour nest distance) are correlated with absolute intra-annual and high inter-annual nest-site stability (more than 75% inter-annual survival rate) and a monodomous colony structure. In C. bicolor the population density is one hundred times higher (42 kg body mass per km2, 9.1 m mean nearest neighbour nest distance), nest-site stability is extremely low in both intra-annual and inter-annual terms (67% intra-annual survival rate for 13-day periods; less than 5% inter-annual survival rate), and polydomy prevails. These marked differences in population structure are discussed with respect to adapted traits such as foraging range, running speed, and relative lengths of the leg

Development of Deep Learning Hybrid Models for Hydrological Predictions

The Abstract is currently unavailable, due to the thesis being under Embargo

From metacommunity dynamics to rapid biodiversity assessment: DNA-based approaches expand horizons in both fundamental and applied ecology

Molecular tools have long been recognised as having enormous potential to expand horizons in ecology, but the promise remains substantially unfulfilled. In this thesis, I apply genetic approaches to two ecological problems that have proved difficult to solve using traditional techniques. Chapters 1 and 2 apply molecular tools to a community ecology problem to ask what mechanisms govern the persistence of an ant-plant metacommunity. I first use molecular data to clarify the number of coexisting ant species, and then employ population genetic techniques to investigate dispersal scale and other elements of life-history in the three most common species. Where hostplant density is high, a clear dispersal hierarchy is detected, which correlates positively with ant body size and negatively with fecundity, consistent with the hypothesis of a dispersal-fecundity trade-off. The hierarchy is less clear when hostplant density is low because one species shows dispersal plasticity, dispersing longer distances when hostplants are scarce. Results are discussed in the context of mechanisms that allow the coexistence of multiple symbionts with a single plant host. Chapters 3 to 8 address the use of molecular tools for informing decision-making in environmental management and biodiversity conservation. COI metabarcoding data are used to analyse patterns of arthropod diversity in the contexts of sustainable forest management (Chapter 5), agricultural management (Chapter 6), and habitat restoration (Chapter 7). It is shown that this potentially revolutionary technique can detect even fine-scale environmental changes, accurately characterise the biodiversity response to management variables, and be used to test the usefulness of convenient indicator variables. COI data is shown to outperform 18S data in recovering alpha and beta diversity information, and reference-based OTU-picking is demonstrated to be a useful approach where there is interest in the responses of a particular set of species. Potential applications and current limitations are discussed in Chapter 8