The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States

We explore the proposition that expected longevity affects retirement decisions and accumulated wealth using micro data drawn from the Health and Retirement Study for the United States. We use data on a person's subjective probability of survival to age 75 as a proxy for their prospective lifespan. In order to control for the presence of measurement error and focal points in responses, as well as reverse causality, we instrument subjective survival probabilities using information on current age, or age at death, of the respondent's parents. Our estimates indicate that increased subjective probabilities of survival result in increased household wealth among couples, with no effect on the length of the working life. These findings are consistent with the view that retirement decisions are driven by institutional constraints and incentives and that a longer expected lifespan leads to increased wealth accumulation.

The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States

We explore the proposition that expected longevity affects retirement decisions and accumulated wealth using micro data drawn from the Health and Retirement Study for the United States. We use data on a person’s subjective probability of survival to age 75 as a proxy for their prospective lifespan. In order to control for the presence of measurement error and focal points in responses, as well as reverse causality, we instrument subjective survival probabilities using information on current age, or age at death, of the respondent’s parents. Our estimates indicate that increased subjective probabilities of survival result in increased household wealth among couples, with no effect on the length of the working life. These findings are consistent with the view that retirement decisions are driven by institutional constraints and incentives and that a longer expected lifespan leads to increased wealth accumulation.survival, health, longevity, retirement, wealth

Dev Psychobiol

Error monitoring allows individuals to monitor and adapt their behavior by detecting errors. Error monitoring is thought to develop throughout childhood and adolescence. However, most of this evidence comes from studies in late childhood and adolescence utilizing event-related potentials (ERPs). The current study utilizes time-frequency (TF) and connectivity analyses to provide a comprehensive examination of age-related changes in error-monitoring processes across early childhood (N\ua0=\ua0326; 50.9% females; 4-9\ua0years). ERP analyses indicated the presence of the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe) across all ages. Results showed no error-specific age-related changes in the ERN and the Pe. However, TF analyses suggested error-related frontocentral responses in delta and theta signal strength (power), delta consistency (intertrial phase synchrony), and delta synchrony (interchannel phase synchrony) between frontrocentral and frontolateral clusters-all of which increased with age. Additionally, the current study examines the reliability and effect size estimates of the ERP and TF measures. For most measures, more trials were needed to achieve acceptable reliability than what is commonly used in the psychophysiological literature. Resources to facilitate the measurement and reporting of reliability are provided. Overall, findings highlight the utility of TF analyses and provide useful information for future studies examining the development of error monitoring.UH3 OD023279/CD/ODCDC CDC HHSUnited States

Utilising identifier error variation in linkage of large administrative data sources.

BACKGROUND: Linkage of administrative data sources often relies on probabilistic methods using a set of common identifiers (e.g. sex, date of birth, postcode). Variation in data quality on an individual or organisational level (e.g. by hospital) can result in clustering of identifier errors, violating the assumption of independence between identifiers required for traditional probabilistic match weight estimation. This potentially introduces selection bias to the resulting linked dataset. We aimed to measure variation in identifier error rates in a large English administrative data source (Hospital Episode Statistics; HES) and to incorporate this information into match weight calculation. METHODS: We used 30,000 randomly selected HES hospital admissions records of patients aged 0-1, 5-6 and 18-19 years, for 2011/2012, linked via NHS number with data from the Personal Demographic Service (PDS; our gold-standard). We calculated identifier error rates for sex, date of birth and postcode and used multi-level logistic regression to investigate associations with individual-level attributes (age, ethnicity, and gender) and organisational variation. We then derived: i) weights incorporating dependence between identifiers; ii) attribute-specific weights (varying by age, ethnicity and gender); and iii) organisation-specific weights (by hospital). Results were compared with traditional match weights using a simulation study. RESULTS: Identifier errors (where values disagreed in linked HES-PDS records) or missing values were found in 0.11% of records for sex and date of birth and in 53% of records for postcode. Identifier error rates differed significantly by age, ethnicity and sex (p < 0.0005). Errors were less frequent in males, in 5-6 year olds and 18-19 year olds compared with infants, and were lowest for the Asian ethic group. A simulation study demonstrated that substantial bias was introduced into estimated readmission rates in the presence of identifier errors. Attribute- and organisational-specific weights reduced this bias compared with weights estimated using traditional probabilistic matching algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: We provide empirical evidence on variation in rates of identifier error in a widely-used administrative data source and propose a new method for deriving match weights that incorporates additional data attributes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating information on variation by individual-level characteristics can help to reduce bias due to linkage error

New Insights into Human Nondisjunction of Chromosome 21 in Oocytes

Nondisjunction of chromosome 21 is the leading cause of Down syndrome. Two risk factors for maternal nondisjunction of chromosome 21 are increased maternal age and altered recombination. In order to provide further insight on mechanisms underlying nondisjunction, we examined the association between these two well established risk factors for chromosome 21 nondisjunction. In our approach, short tandem repeat markers along chromosome 21 were genotyped in DNA collected from individuals with free trisomy 21 and their parents. This information was used to determine the origin of the nondisjunction error and the maternal recombination profile. We analyzed 615 maternal meiosis I and 253 maternal meiosis II cases stratified by maternal age. The examination of meiosis II errors, the first of its type, suggests that the presence of a single exchange within the pericentromeric region of 21q interacts with maternal age-related risk factors. This observation could be explained in two general ways: 1) a pericentromeric exchange initiates or exacerbates the susceptibility to maternal age risk factors or 2) a pericentromeric exchange protects the bivalent against age-related risk factors allowing proper segregation of homologues at meiosis I, but not segregation of sisters at meiosis II. In contrast, analysis of maternal meiosis I errors indicates that a single telomeric exchange imposes the same risk for nondisjunction, irrespective of the age of the oocyte. Our results emphasize the fact that human nondisjunction is a multifactorial trait that must be dissected into its component parts to identify specific associated risk factors

Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting-a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence

Investigation of Medication Errors: A Prescription Survey from Sri Lanka

Purpose: To identify and quantify possible errors in handwritten outpatient prescriptions in relation to adherence to standard guidelines on the layout and content of prescriptions.Method: A sample of 200 handwritten outpatient prescriptions were collected from two pharmacies located in a sub-urban (Aluthgama) and an urban (Kandy) area in Sri Lanka. Data were extracted using a pilot-tested questionnaire and the legibility of the prescription was assessed by three independent investigators. The results from the suburban area were compared with those from the urban area.Results: Based on the layout of the prescription, the presence of patient information was unsatisfactory. Patient name and age were present in less than half of the prescriptions. However, prescriber information except registration number was present in more than 75 % of the prescriptions. Date of consultation was present in &gt; 81.5 % of the prescriptions. Non-standard abbreviations were used in 36.5 % of the prescriptions while incomplete units were observed in 51 % of the prescriptions. Nearly half of the prescriptions from both urban and suburban locations were illegible. Occurrence of prescriber details was a significantly different between Aluthgama and Kandy.Conclusion: Prescription errors are common in outpatient settings of Aluthgama and Kandy areas in Sri Lanka. Standardized prescription writing process in relation to layout, use of abbreviations, and units and legibility, is proposed as a potential solution to overcome this problem.Keywords: Medication error, Prescriptions, Standardized prescription writing, Prescriber information, Non-standard abbreviatio

REFRACTIVE ERRORS AMONG NIGERIAN YOUTHS

Genetic, cultural, and environmental factors play key roles in the prevalence and distribution of refractive errors. More youths in Nigeria today use medicated glasses to enhance vision than we had in the past decades. This study is aimed at revealing the prevalence of refractive errors among students of Madonna University Nigeria, Elele campus, Rivers state. One thousand questionnaires were randomly distributed to the 3rd year undergraduate students in various departments in the College of Medicine, including anatomy, physiology, medical laboratory science, optometry, public health, and pharmacy. Eight hundred and fifty-two (85.2%) out of the 1000 of the questionnaires shared were retrieved and analyzed using simple percentages. Data collected included information on age, sex, state of origin, place of residence, and presence of refractive errors. Our results reveal that the incidence of refractive errors was highest in the North-west region of the country having (93.55%). This was followed by South-west (50.51%), South-south (32.88%), South-east (27.67%), North-central (18.03%), and North-east (15.79%). The highest occurring refractive error among the six geopolitical regions of Nigeria is myopia (54%), followed by hyperopia (21.01%), astigmatism (15.30%), and presbyopia (9.46%). This work represents the first attempt at having a comprehensive outlook at the statistics of refractive errors among Nigerian youths from across the country