판매촉진을 도입한 수요 불확실성 재고관리 모형

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2020. 8. 문일경.As the globalization of markets accelerates competition among companies, sales promotion, which refers to short-term incentives promoting sales of products or services, plays a prominent role. Although there are various types of sales promotions, such as price reduction, buy-x-get-y-free, and trade-in program, the common purpose is to induce the purchase of customers by offering benefits. This successful strategy has caught the attention of researchers, including operations management and supply chain management. Thus, various studies have been conducted to examine strategies for ongoing operations and to demonstrate the effects of the sales promotion, which are based on the strategic level. However, research at the tactical or operational level has been conducted insufficiently. This dissertation examines the inventory models considering (i) markdown sale, (ii) buy one get one free (BOGO), and (iii) trade-in program. First, the newsvendor model is considered. By introducing the decision variable, which represents the start time of markdown sale, the retailer can obtain the optimal combination of the start time of a markdown sale and an order quantity. Under certain conditions in a decentralized system, however, the start time of a markdown sale where the retailer obtains the highest profit is the least profitable for the manufacturer. To avoid irrational ordering behavior by a retailer against a manufacturer, a revenue-sharing contract is proposed. Second, the mobile application, ``My Own Refrigerator'', is considered in the inventory model. It enables customers to store BOGO products in their virtual storage for later use. That is, customers can drop by the store to pick up the extra freebies in the future. The promotion involves a high degree of uncertainty regarding the revisiting date because customers who buy the product do not need to take both products on the day of purchase. To deal with this uncertainty, we propose a robust multiperiod inventory model by addressing the approximation of a multistage stochastic optimization model. Third, the trade-in program is considered. It is one of the sales promotions that companies collect used old-generation products from customers and provide them with new-generation products at a discount price. It also helps to acquire the additional products which are required for the refurbishment service. A multiperiod stochastic inventory model based on the closed-loop supply chain system is proposed by incorporating the trade-in program and refurbishment service simultaneously. The stochastic optimization model is approximated to the robust counterpart, which features a deterministic second-order cone program.시장의 세계화에 따른 기업 간의 경쟁이 가속화됨에 따라, 단기 인센티브를 통해 고객의 제품 또는 서비스 구매를 유도하는 판매촉진의 역할이 중요해졌다. 가격 인하, 행사상품 증정, 트레이드인프로그램과 같은 다양한 유형의 판매촉진 전략이 존재하지만, 공통된 주요 목적은 기업이 고객에게 혜택을 제공하여 고객의 수요를 증대시키는 것이다. 판매촉진의 성공적인 전략은 경영과학 또는 공급망관리 분야를 포함한 관련 학계의 관심을 이끌었다. 지속적인 운영을 위한 전략을 검토하고 전략적 수준 계획을 기반으로 하는 판매 촉진의 효과를 입증하기 위한 다양한 연구가 수행되었습니다. 하지만 운영 수준의 소매업체 입장에서의 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 (i) 마크 다운 (ii) buy one get one free (BOGO), 및 (iii) 트레이드인프로그램을 고려한 재고관리모형을 다룬다. 먼저, 신문가판원 모형에 마크 다운 시작 시점을 나타내는 결정 변수를 도입하여 최적의 마크 다운 시작 시점과 주문량의 조합을 제공하는 모형을 제안한다. 분산 시스템의 특정 조건에서는 소매업자가 가장 높은 이익을 얻는 시점이 제조업자에게 낮은 수익성을 야기할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 제조업자에 대한 소매업자의 비합리적 주문을 막기 위한 이익분배계약을 제안한다. 이익분배계약을 통한 중앙집권화 시스템은 분산 시스템에서 얻은 이익에 비해 소매업자와 제조업자의 이익을 향상시킴을 수치실험을 통해 확인하였다. 둘째, 모바일 어플리케이션 ``나만의 냉장고''를 고려한 재고모형을 고려한다. 이 앱을 통해 BOGO 행사제품을 구매한 고객은 증정품을 구매 당일 날 가져가지 않고 미래에 재방문하여 수령할 수 있는 혜택을 받는다. 하지만 소매업자 입장에서는 고객이 증정품을 언제 수령해 갈 지에 대한 불확실성이 존재하며 이는 기존의 재고관리 운영방식에는 한계점이 있음을 시사한다. 본 연구에서는 고객의 재방문에 대한 불확실성을 고려한 복수기간 추계계획 재고모형을 수립하며 이를 효율적으로 계산하기 위한 강건최적화 모형으로 근사화하였다. 셋째, 리퍼서비스와 트레이드인프로그램을 고려한 폐회로 공급망 시스템 기반의 복수기간 재고관리모형을 제안한다. 신세대 제품, 리퍼서비스 및 트레이드인프로그램에 대한 세 가지 유형의 불확실한 수요에 대한 상관관계를 반영함에 따라 복수기간 추계계획 재고모형이 수립된다. 복수기간 추계계획 재고모형의 계산이 어렵다는 한계를 극복하고자 강건최적화 모형으로 근사화하였다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Sales promotion 1 1.2 Inventory management 3 1.3 Research motivations 6 1.4 Research contents and contributions 8 1.5 Outline of the dissertation 10 Chapter 2 Optimal Start Time of a Markdown Sale Under a Two-Echelon Inventory System 11 2.1 Introduction and literature review 11 2.2 Problem description 17 2.3 Analysis of the decentralized system 21 2.3.1 Newsvendor model for a retailer 21 2.3.2 Solution procedure for an optimal combination of the start time of the markdown sale and the order quantity 25 2.3.3 Profi t function of a manufacturer 25 2.3.4 Numerical experiments of the decentralized system 27 2.4 Analysis of a centralized system 35 2.4.1 Revenue-sharing contract 35 2.4.2 Numerical experiments of the centralized system 38 2.5 Summary 40 2.5.1 Managerial insights 41 Chapter 3 Robust Multiperiod Inventory Model with a New Type of Buy One Get One Promotion: "My Own Refrigerator" 43 3.1 Introduction and literature review 43 3.2 Problem description 51 3.2.1 Demand modeling 52 3.2.2 Sequences of the ordering decision 54 3.3 Mathematical formulation of the IMMOR 56 3.3.1 Mathematical formulation of the IMMOR under the deterministic demand 58 3.3.2 Mathematical formulation of the IMMOR under the stochastic demand 58 3.3.3 Distributionally robust optimization approach for the IMMOR 60 3.4 Computational experiments 76 3.4.1 Experiment 1: tractability of the RIMMOR 77 3.4.2 Experiment 2: robustness of the RIMMOR 78 3.4.3 Experiment 3: e ect of duration of the expiry date under the different customers' revisiting propensities 78 3.5 Summary 83 3.5.1 Managerial insights 83 Chapter 4 Robust Multiperiod Inventory Model Considering Refurbishment Service and Trade-in Program 85 4.1 Introduction 85 4.2 Literature review 91 4.2.1 Effects of the trade-in program and strategic-level decisions for the trade-in program 91 4.2.2 Inventory or lot-sizing model in a closed-loop supply chain system 94 4.2.3 Distinctive features of this research 97 4.3 Problem description 100 4.3.1 Demand modeling 103 4.3.2 Decision of the inventory manager 105 4.4 Mathematical formulation 108 4.4.1 Mathematical formulation of the IMRSTIP under the deterministic demand model 108 4.4.2 Mathematical formulation of the IMRSTIP under the stochastic demand model 110 4.4.3 Distributionally robust optimization approach for the IMRSTIP 111 4.5 Computational experiments 125 4.5.1 Demand process 125 4.5.2 Experiment 1: tractability of the RIMRSTIP 128 4.5.3 Experiment 2: approximation error from the expected value given perfect information 129 4.5.4 Experiment 3: protection against realized uncertain factors 130 4.5.5 Experiment 4: di erences between modeling demands from VARMA and ARMA 131 4.5.6 Experiments 5 and 6: comparisons of backlogged refurbishment service with or without trade-in program 133 4.6 Summary 136 Chapter 5 Conclusions 138 5.1 Summary 138 5.2 Future research 140 Bibliography 142 Chapter A 160 A.1 160 A.2 163 A.3 163 A.4 164 A.5 165 A.6 166 Chapter B 168 B.1 168 B.2 171 B.3 172 Chapter C 174 C.1 174 C.2 174 국문초록 179Docto

Robust Storage Assignment in Unit-Load Warehouses

Published version made available in SMU repository with permission of INFORMS, 2014, February 28</p

Multi-stage stochastic and robust optimization for closed-loop supply chain design

This dissertation focuses on formulating and solving multi-stage decision problems in uncertain environments using stochastic programming and robust optimization approaches. These approaches are applied to the design of closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) networks, which integrate both traditional flow and the reverse flow of products. The uncertainties associated with this application include forward demands, the quantity and quality of used products to be collected, and the carbon tax rate. The design decisions include long-term facility configurations as well as short-term contracts for transportation capacities by various modes that differ according to their variable costs, fixed costs, and emission rates. This dissertation consists of three papers. The first paper develops a multi-stage stochastic program for a CLSC network design problem with demands and quality of return uncertainties. 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We investigate the stability of the solution obtained from scenario trees of varying granularity using a moment matching method for demands and distribution approximation for the quality of returns. Multi-stage solutions are evaluated in out-of-sample tests using simulated historical data and also compared with two-stage model. We observe an instance of overfitting, in which a scenario tree including more outcomes at each stage produces a dramatically different solution that has slightly higher average cost, compared to the solution from a less granular tree, when evaluated against the underlying simulated historical data. We also show that when the scenarios include demand dependencies, the solution performs better in out-of-sample simulation. In the second paper, the ARC of an uncertain linear program extends the RC by allowing some decision variables to adjust to the realizations of some uncertain parameters. The ARC may produce a less conservative solution than the RC does but cases are known in which it does not. While the literature documents some examples of cost savings provided by adjustability (particularly affine adjustability), it is not straightforward to determine in advance whether they will materialize. We establish conditions under which adjustability may lower the optimal cost with a numerical condition that can be checked in small representative instances. The provided conditions include the presence of at least two binding constraints at optimality of the RC formulation, and an adjustable variable that appears in both constraints with implicit bounds from above and below provided by different extreme values in the uncertainty set. The third paper concerns a CLSC network that is subject to uncertainty in demands for both new and returned products. The model structure also accommodates uncertainty in the carbon tax rate. The proposed model combines probabilistic scenarios for the demands and return quantities with an uncertainty set for the carbon tax rate. We constructed a three-stage hybrid robust/stochastic program in which the first stage decisions are long-term facility configurations, the second stage concerns the plan for distributing new and collecting returned products after realization of demands and returns but before realization of the carbon tax rate, and the numbers of transportation units of various modes, as the third stage decisions, are adjustable to the realization of the carbon tax level. For computational tractability, we restrict the transportation capacities to be affine functions of the carbon tax rates. By utilizing our findings in the second paper, we found conditions under which the ARC produces a less conservative solution. To solve the affinely adjustable version, Benders cuts are generated using recent duality developments for robust linear programs. Computational results show that the ability to adjust transportation mode capacities can substitute for building additional facilities as a way to respond to carbon tax uncertainty. The number of opened facilities in ARC solutions are decreased under uncertainty in demands and returns. The results confirm the reduction of total expected cost in the worst case of the carbon tax rate by increasing utilization of transportation modes with higher capacity per unit and lower emission rate

Hybrid Strategies using Linear and Piecewise-Linear Decision Rules for Multistage Adaptive Linear Optimization

Decision rules offer a rich and tractable framework for solving certain classes of multistage adaptive optimization problems. Recent literature has shown the promise of using linear and nonlinear decision rules in which wait-and-see decisions are represented as functions, whose parameters are decision variables to be optimized, of the underlying uncertain parameters. Despite this growing success, solving real-world stochastic optimization problems can become computationally prohibitive when using nonlinear decision rules, and in some cases, linear ones. Consequently, decision rules that offer a competitive trade-off between solution quality and computational time become more attractive. Whereas the extant research has always used homogeneous decision rules, the major contribution of this paper is a computational exploration of hybrid decision rules. We first verify empirically that having higher uncertainty resolution or more linear pieces in early stages is more significant than having it in late stages in terms of solution quality. Then we conduct a comprehensive computational study for non-increasing (i.e., higher uncertainty resolution in early stages) and non-decreasing (i.e., higher uncertainty resolution in late stages) hybrid decision rules to illustrate the trade-off between solution quality and computational cost. We also demonstrate a case where a linear decision rule is superior to a piecewise-linear decision rule within a simulator environment, which supports the need to assess the quality of decision rules obtained from a look-ahead model within a simulator rather than just using the look-ahead model's objective function value

Prescriptive PCA: Dimensionality Reduction for Two-stage Stochastic Optimization

In this paper, we consider the alignment between an upstream dimensionality reduction task of learning a low-dimensional representation of a set of high-dimensional data and a downstream optimization task of solving a stochastic program parameterized by said representation. In this case, standard dimensionality reduction methods (e.g., principal component analysis) may not perform well, as they aim to maximize the amount of information retained in the representation and do not generally reflect the importance of such information in the downstream optimization problem. To address this problem, we develop a prescriptive dimensionality reduction framework that aims to minimize the degree of suboptimality in the optimization phase. For the case where the downstream stochastic optimization problem has an expected value objective, we show that prescriptive dimensionality reduction can be performed via solving a distributionally-robust optimization problem, which admits a semidefinite programming relaxation. Computational experiments based on a warehouse transshipment problem and a vehicle repositioning problem show that our approach significantly outperforms principal component analysis with real and synthetic data sets

Multiperiod optimisation and strategic planning for chemical processes

Il tema è l'ottimizzazione multiperiodale applicata a processi chimici, in particolare ottimizzazione dei livelli di scorte e pianificazione strategica