Adaptive Kalman Filtering for Multi-Step ahead Traffic Flow Prediction

International audienceGiven the importance of continuous traffic flow forecasting in most of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications, where every new traffic data become available in every few minutes or seconds, the main objective of this study is to perform a multi-step ahead traffic flow forecasting that can meet a trade-off between accuracy, low computational load, and limited memory capacity. To this aim, based on adaptive Kalman filtering theory, two forecasting approaches are proposed. We suggest solving a multi-step ahead prediction problem as a filtering one by considering pseudo-observations coming from the averaged historical flow or the output of other predictors in the literature. For taking into account the stochastic modeling of the process and the current measurements we resort to an adaptive scheme. The proposed forecasting methods are evaluated by using measurements of the Grenoble south ring

Adaptive Kalman Filtering for Multi-Step ahead Traffic Flow Prediction

International audienceGiven the importance of continuous traffic flow forecasting in most of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications, where every new traffic data become available in every few minutes or seconds, the main objective of this study is to perform a multi-step ahead traffic flow forecasting that can meet a trade-off between accuracy, low computational load, and limited memory capacity. To this aim, based on adaptive Kalman filtering theory, two forecasting approaches are proposed. We suggest solving a multi-step ahead prediction problem as a filtering one by considering pseudo-observations coming from the averaged historical flow or the output of other predictors in the literature. For taking into account the stochastic modeling of the process and the current measurements we resort to an adaptive scheme. The proposed forecasting methods are evaluated by using measurements of the Grenoble south ring

DYNAMIC FREEWAY TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING SINGLE LOOP DETECTOR AND INCIDENT DATA

The accurate estimation of travel time is valuable for a variety of transportation applications such as freeway performance evaluation and real-time traveler information. Given the extensive availability of traffic data collected by intelligent transportation systems, a variety of travel time estimation methods have been developed. Despite limited success under light traffic conditions, traditional corridor travel time prediction methods have suffered various drawbacks. First, most of these methods are developed based on data generated by dual-loop detectors that contain average spot speeds. However, single-loop detectors (and other devices that emulate its operation) are the most commonly used devices in traffic monitoring systems. There has not been a reliable methodology for travel time prediction based on data generated by such devices due to the lack of speed measurements. Moreover, the majority of existing studies focus on travel time estimation. Secondly, the effect of traffic progression along the freeway has not been considered in the travel time prediction process. Moreover, the impact of incidents on travel time estimates has not been effectively accounted for in existing studies.The objective of this dissertation is to develop a methodology for dynamic travel time prediction based on continuous data generated by single-loop detectors (and similar devices) and incident reports generated by the traffic monitoring system. This method involves multiple-step-ahead prediction for flow rate and occupancy in real time. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is developed with an embedded adaptive predictor. This predictor adjusts the prediction error based on traffic data that becomes available every five minutes at each station. The impact of incidents is evaluated based on estimates of incident duration and the queue incurred.Tests and comparative analyses show that this method is able to capture the real-time characteristics of the traffic and provide more accurate travel time estimates particularly when incidents occur. The sensitivities of the models to the variations of the flow and occupancy data are analyzed and future research has been identified.The potential of this methodology in dealing with less than perfect data sources has been demonstrated. This provides good opportunity for the wide application of the proposed method since single-loop type detectors are most extensively installed in various intelligent transportation system deployments

Prediction of Short-term Traffic Variables using Intelligent Swarm-based Neural Networks

This paper presents an innovative algorithm integrated with particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks to develop short-term traffic flow predictors, which are intended to provide traffic flow forecasting information for traffic management in order to reduce traffic congestion and improve mobility of transportation. The proposed algorithm aims to address the issues of development of short-term traffic flow predictors which have not been addressed fully in the current literature namely that: a) strongly non-linear characteristics are unavoidable in traffic flow data; b) memory space for implementation of short-term traffic flow predictors is limited; c) specification of model structures for short-term traffic flow predictors which do not involve trial and error methods based on human expertise; d) adaptation to newly-captured, traffic flow data is required. The proposed algorithm was applied to forecast traffic flow conditions on a section of freeway in Western Australia, whose traffic flow information is newly-captured. These results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of using the proposed algorithm for real-time traffic flow forecasting

An integrated method for short-term prediction of road traffic conditions for intelligent transportation systems applications

The paper deals with the short-term prediction of road traffic conditions within Intelligent Transportation Systems applications. First, the problem of traffic modeling and the potential of different traffic monitoring technologies are discussed. Then, an integrated method for short-term traffic prediction is presented, which integrates an Artificial Neural Network predictor that forecasts future states in standard conditions, an anomaly detection module that exploits floating car data to individuate possible occurrences of anomalous traffic conditions, and a macroscopic traffic model that predicts speeds and queue progressions in case of anomalies. Results of offline applications on a primary Italian motorway are presented

Developing Sampling Strategies and Predicting Freeway Travel Time Using Bluetooth Data

Accurate, reliable, and timely travel time is critical to monitor transportation system performance and assist motorists with trip-making decisions. Travel time is estimated using the data from various sources like cellular technology, automatic vehicle identification (AVI) systems. Irrespective of sources, data have characteristics in terms of accuracy and reliability shaped by the sampling rate along with other factors. As a probe based AVI technology, Bluetooth data is not immune to the sampling issue that directly affects the accuracy and reliability of the information it provides. The sampling rate can be affected by the stochastic nature of traffic state varying by time of day. A single outlier may sharply affect the travel time. This study brings attention to several crucial issues - intervals with no sample, minimum sample size and stochastic property of travel time, that play pivotal role on the accuracy and reliability of information along with its time coverage. It also demonstrates noble approaches and thus, represents a guideline for researchers and practitioner to select an appropriate interval for sample accumulation flexibly by set up the threshold guided by the nature of individual researches’ problems and preferences. After selection of an appropriate interval for sample accumulation, the next step is to estimate travel time. Travel time can be estimated either based on arrival time or based on departure time of corresponding vehicle. Considering the estimation procedure, these two are defined as arrival time based travel time (ATT) and departure time based travel time (DTT) respectively. A simple data processing algorithm, which processed more than a hundred million records reliably and efficiently, was introduced to ensure accurate estimation of travel time. Since outlier filtering plays a pivotal role in estimation accuracy, a simplified technique has proposed to filter outliers after examining several well-established outlier-filtering algorithms. In general, time of arrival is utilized to estimate overall travel time; however, travel time based on departure time (DTT) is more accurate and thus, DTT should be treated as true travel time. Accurate prediction is an integral component of calculating DTT, as real-time DTT is not available. The performances of Kalman filter (KF) were compared to corresponding modeling techniques; both link and corridor based, and concluded that the KF method offers superior prediction accuracy in link-based model. This research also examined the effect of different noise assumptions and found that the steady noise computed from full-dataset leads to the most accurate prediction. Travel time prediction had a 4.53% mean absolute percentage of error due to the effective application of KF