제조 시스템에서의 예측 모델링을 위한 지능적 데이터 획득

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2021. 2. 조성준.Predictive modeling is a type of supervised learning to find the functional relationship between the input variables and the output variable. Predictive modeling is used in various aspects in manufacturing systems, such as automation of visual inspection, prediction of faulty products, and result estimation of expensive inspection. To build a high-performance predictive model, it is essential to secure high quality data. However, in manufacturing systems, it is practically impossible to acquire enough data of all kinds that are needed for the predictive modeling. There are three main difficulties in the data acquisition in manufacturing systems. First, labeled data always comes with a cost. In many problems, labeling must be done by experienced engineers, which is costly. Second, due to the inspection cost, not all inspections can be performed on all products. Because of time and monetary constraints in the manufacturing system, it is impossible to obtain all the desired inspection results. Third, changes in the manufacturing environment make data acquisition difficult. A change in the manufacturing environment causes a change in the distribution of generated data, making it impossible to obtain enough consistent data. Then, the model have to be trained with a small amount of data. In this dissertation, we overcome this difficulties in data acquisition through active learning, active feature-value acquisition, and domain adaptation. First, we propose an active learning framework to solve the high labeling cost of the wafer map pattern classification. This makes it possible to achieve higher performance with a lower labeling cost. Moreover, the cost efficiency is further improved by incorporating the cluster-level annotation into active learning. For the inspection cost for fault prediction problem, we propose a active inspection framework. By selecting products to undergo high-cost inspection with the novel uncertainty estimation method, high performance can be obtained with low inspection cost. To solve the recipe transition problem that frequently occurs in faulty wafer prediction in semiconductor manufacturing, a domain adaptation methods are used. Through sequential application of unsupervised domain adaptation and semi-supervised domain adaptation, performance degradation due to recipe transition is minimized. Through experiments on real-world data, it was demonstrated that the proposed methodologies can overcome the data acquisition problems in the manufacturing systems and improve the performance of the predictive models.예측 모델링은 지도 학습의 일종으로, 학습 데이터를 통해 입력 변수와 출력 변수 간의 함수적 관계를 찾는 과정이다. 이런 예측 모델링은 육안 검사 자동화, 불량 제품 사전 탐지, 고비용 검사 결과 추정 등 제조 시스템 전반에 걸쳐 활용된다. 높은 성능의 예측 모델을 달성하기 위해서는 양질의 데이터가 필수적이다. 하지만 제조 시스템에서 원하는 종류의 데이터를 원하는 만큼 획득하는 것은 현실적으로 거의 불가능하다. 데이터 획득의 어려움은 크게 세가지 원인에 의해 발생한다. 첫번째로, 라벨링이 된 데이터는 항상 비용을 수반한다는 점이다. 많은 문제에서, 라벨링은 숙련된 엔지니어에 의해 수행되어야 하고, 이는 큰 비용을 발생시킨다. 두번째로, 검사 비용 때문에 모든 검사가 모든 제품에 대해 수행될 수 없다. 제조 시스템에는 시간적, 금전적 제약이 존재하기 때문에, 원하는 모든 검사 결과값을 획득하는 것이 어렵다. 세번째로, 제조 환경의 변화가 데이터 획득을 어렵게 만든다. 제조 환경의 변화는 생성되는 데이터의 분포를 변형시켜, 일관성 있는 데이터를 충분히 획득하지 못하게 한다. 이로 인해 적은 양의 데이터만으로 모델을 재학습시켜야 하는 상황이 빈번하게 발생한다. 본 논문에서는 이런 데이터 획득의 어려움을 극복하기 위해 능동 학습, 능동 피쳐값 획득, 도메인 적응 방법을 활용한다. 먼저, 웨이퍼 맵 패턴 분류 문제의 높은 라벨링 비용을 해결하기 위해 능동학습 프레임워크를 제안한다. 이를 통해 적은 라벨링 비용으로 높은 성능의 분류 모델을 구축할 수 있다. 나아가, 군집 단위의 라벨링 방법을 능동학습에 접목하여 비용 효율성을 한차례 더 개선한다. 제품 불량 예측에 활용되는 검사 비용 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 능동 검사 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 새로운 불확실성 추정 방법을 통해 고비용 검사 대상 제품을 선택함으로써 적은 검사 비용으로 높은 성능을 얻을 수 있다. 반도체 제조의 웨이퍼 불량 예측에서 빈번하게 발생하는 레시피 변경 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 도메인 적응 방법을 활용한다. 비교사 도메인 적응과 반교사 도메인 적응의 순차적인 적용을 통해 레시피 변경에 의한 성능 저하를 최소화한다. 본 논문에서는 실제 데이터에 대한 실험을 통해 제안된 방법론들이 제조시스템의 데이터 획득 문제를 극복하고 예측 모델의 성능을 높일 수 있음을 확인하였다.1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 9 2.1 Review of Related Methodologies 9 2.1.1 Active Learning 9 2.1.2 Active Feature-value Acquisition 11 2.1.3 Domain Adaptation 14 2.2 Review of Predictive Modelings in Manufacturing 15 2.2.1 Wafer Map Pattern Classification 15 2.2.2 Fault Detection and Classification 16 3. Active Learning for Wafer Map Pattern Classification 19 3.1 Problem Description 19 3.2 Proposed Method 21 3.2.1 System overview 21 3.2.2 Prediction model 25 3.2.3 Uncertainty estimation 25 3.2.4 Query wafer selection 29 3.2.5 Query wafer labeling 30 3.2.6 Model update 30 3.3 Experiments 31 3.3.1 Data description 31 3.3.2 Experimental design 31 3.3.3 Results and discussion 34 4. Active Cluster Annotation for Wafer Map Pattern Classification 42 4.1 Problem Description 42 4.2 Proposed Method 44 4.2.1 Clustering of unlabeled data 46 4.2.2 CNN training with labeled data 48 4.2.3 Cluster-level uncertainty estimation 49 4.2.4 Query cluster selection 50 4.2.5 Cluster-level annotation 50 4.3 Experiments 51 4.3.1 Data description 51 4.3.2 Experimental setting 51 4.3.3 Clustering results 53 4.3.4 Classification performance 54 4.3.5 Analysis for label noise 57 5. Active Inspection for Fault Prediction 60 5.1 Problem Description 60 5.2 Proposed Method 65 5.2.1 Active inspection framework 65 5.2.2 Acquisition based on Expected Prediction Change 68 5.3 Experiments 71 5.3.1 Data description 71 5.3.2 Fault prediction models 72 5.3.3 Experimental design 73 5.3.4 Results and discussion 74 6. Adaptive Fault Detection for Recipe Transition 76 6.1 Problem Description 76 6.2 Proposed Method 78 6.2.1 Overview 78 6.2.2 Unsupervised adaptation phase 81 6.2.3 Semi-supervised adaptation phase 83 6.3 Experiments 85 6.3.1 Data description 85 6.3.2 Experimental setting 85 6.3.3 Performance degradation caused by recipe transition 86 6.3.4 Effect of unsupervised adaptation 87 6.3.5 Effect of semi-supervised adaptation 88 7. Conclusion 91 7.1 Contributions 91 7.2 Future work 94Docto

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